INFORMAL EU FOREIGN MINSTERS MEETING (GYMNICH),

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 002138 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2014 TAGS: PREL NL EUN SUBJECT: INFORMAL EU FOREIGN MINSTERS MEETING (GYMNICH), SEP 3-4: DISCUSSION WITH DUTCH REF: A. (A) STATE 182534 ¶B. (B) THE HAGUE 02074 Classified By: POLCOUNS A. SCHOFER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. MFA Political Affairs Department Director Jaap Werner told emboffs that although the Gymnich agenda must remain open until very shortly before the meeting, he expects that it will cover ASEM, the Middle East, Iraq, Iran, the Balkans, and the Sudan. On ASEM the Dutch are looking for a compromise solution that will combine lower level Burmese participation with positive human rights action by the Burmese and possible additional EU sanctions on Burma. At the Gymnich the Foreign Ministers will discuss the state of play and the EU bottom line, but Werner continued to indicate strong EU interest in the ASEM taking place. The Middle East discussion will probably result in further EU urging of Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and possibly something on settlements. The Dutch may also use the occasion to discuss the Forum for the Future bilaterally with key FMs. On Iraq the focus will be a response to the Annan letter on financing for a UN protection force. On Iran the Ministers will be briefed by the "EU-3" on their conclusions. The Balkans discussion will be about the status of EU partnership efforts in the region. Discussion of the Sudan will depend on the assessment of the situation there at that point. Turkey and the China arms embargo are not on the formal agenda, but the Dutch intend to use the occasion to probe for the degree of member state commitment to lifting the arms embargo. End Summary. ¶2. (U) PolCouns and Poloff met with Werner on 26 August to discuss the EU's Sept 3-4 Gymnich using reftel A instructions. Werner said that the agenda for the subject meeting is generally known but still subject to chance depending on events. Polcouns made the points in reftel A at appropriate times in the discussion. ASEM -------------- ¶3. (C) The EU's assembled Foreign Ministers will hear a report from Dutch Presidency Special Envoy Van den Broek on his visits and contacts with Asian and European governments concerning the issue of Burmese attendance at the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM),scheduled for October 8-9. The Dutch are looking for a compromise that will be a "package" of elements to include some or all of (a) lower level Burmese participation (minister or lower),(b) strengthening EU sanctions on Burma to assure that a message of continuing disapproval is sent, (c) discussion of Burmese human rights performance at the ASEM, and (d) some significant Burmese action demonstrating progress, such as the release from house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi. Asian governments are adamant about Burmese participation and are being told that they have to help by putting pressure on the Burmese to take such a step prior to the ASEM. ¶4. (C) Werner clearly indicated that the ASEM is likely to come off, however much of the package is successfully assembled. It would be "disastrous for EU-Asia relations," he said, if the meeting were canceled. Those EU governments with the strongest domestic pressure to be stern with the Burmese -- UK, Netherlands and Denmark -- all seem to be moving toward making the summit possible (the UK at least partly because PM Blair does not plan to attend and therefore would not have to be seen at the same table anyway). Middle East/Forum for the Future -------------- ¶5. (C) Werner did not believe that discussion of the Middle East would take up much time at the Gymnich, mainly because there are few perceived openings for EU involvement in the region and no new ideas for EU action on the table for discussion. A statement might include something about urging follow-through on Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and perhaps something on the settlements. ¶6. (C) Werner said that the Dutch may use the FM gathering to explore positions on the Forum for the Future and the possibility of The Netherlands hosting the event. The Dutch remain unsure of the degree of EU member state support for the Forum, though Werner admitted it would be odd for the big member states also at the G-8 to now try to disassociate from the process. A visit to The Hague next week by French FM Barnier provides a good occasion to discuss the Forum. (Werner said it would be very useful to have a US response to the concerns about the Forum raised by FM Bot with Ambassador Sobel (ref B) prior to these discussions.) He responded very positively to the possibility of Moroccan co-sponsorship of an event in The Hague, noting that this would be add an additional point in favor of hosting. Iraq -------------- ¶6. (C) The EU's "exploratory mission" to Iraq (headed by MFA Deputy Political Director Hermann Schaaper) will report its findings to the Gymnich. Werner hopes the FMs will endorse whatever the results of that mission are and perhaps have some Commission proposals on the table to consider as well. He cautioned that the EU would probably not be able to take concrete actions until October or November, however. He admitted that the Commission has been difficult on this issue, partly because of the timing coincident with a lame-duck Commission, but also because of tensions between the Council Secretariat and the Commission as the EU's foreign relations structure undergoes change. ¶7. (C) Ministers will discuss funding for the UN protection force in Iraq. The Gymnich may agree on a reply to the Annan letter requesting funds, though Werner was not sure that member states will have prepared themselves for that in time. Iran -------------- ¶8. (C) The "EU-3" (UK, German, France) will brief the FMs on their discussions with Iran regarding its nuclear program. Werner does not know what they will say, and described the EU-3 as "secretive" about their interaction with Iran to date. He wondered if the EU-3 themselves are having trouble reaching a consensus about conclusions and recommendations. If they have indeed reached a dead end, he suggested, the EU-3 might be considering whether it was time to return the whole problem to the EU. ¶9. (C) In any case Werner expected the Gymnich to agree on a strong message urging Iran to meet its commitments. He asked for further details on the US position, e.g., what time line does "as soon as possible" (para 8 ref A) imply, and what should be the result of the September IAEA Board meeting. Balkans -------------- ¶10. (C) Ministers will be briefed on the status of the Serbia-Montenegro stability agreement negotiations, which have encountered difficulties with different conditions in Serbia vs. Montenegro. The agreement must deal with this without implying any signal of separation. Discussion will probably not be at the level of the issues raised in ref A. On Kosovo the Ministers will discuss the status of the Standards process, which Werner agreed is important to the long-term project of integrating Kosovo into European institutions. Sudan -------------- ¶11. (C) Ministers will make an assessment of the situation. Werner noted that the Gymnich timing is fortunate, coming just after the UN assessment and just before the UN discussion of next steps. The EU expects a mixed assessment, progress on some fronts, not on others. FM Bot will visit Khartoum after the Gymnich but before the regular Sep GAERC on Sep. 13-14. Other issues -------------- ¶12. (C) The China arms embargo is not expected to be on the agenda. Werner confirmed Bot's indication ref B of some movement on the issue. The Dutch will use the occasion for bilateral informal discussions to assess how strongly France and others are attached to lifting the embargo as soon as possible. The US message has been heard, though, and although the EU member states generally want to get rid of the embargo, whether it is done in December "depends (to some extent) on the amount of collateral damage it would cause." The success of the summit is still a major consideration: the lifting of the embargo was to have been a "present" for the Chinese, and if that is not available, some other present will have to be found. ¶13. (C) Turkey also will not be discussed. It is, Werner said, "too soon" with the Commission report not due until October. The Dutch intend to follow the process step by step, waiting for the report, reacting to the report after it is issued, making the decision in December. RUSSEL