C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 006455

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2009
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV LE SY IS GOI EXTERNAL
SUBJECT: MFA ANALYSTS TO CODEL TALENT: SYRIA IS ON A
TIGHTROPE

Classified By: Pol/C Norm Olsen for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: MFA Deputy Director General for
Intelligence and Research Harry Kney-Tal told CODEL Talent
December 6 that Syria will not relinquish either its hold on
Lebanon or its relationship with Iraq without gaining some
concessions from the West to replace them. With one million
Syrians working in Lebanon, that country is too important to
less-economically sound Syria, and the al-Assad government is
currently strengthening cultural, educational and economic
ties between the two countries in the hopes of further
entrenching Syrian influence there. Kney-Tal and Senator
Talent agreed that developing democracy in the Arab world is
perhaps the biggest and most important ideological challenge
facing the world since WWII, and that it is essential not to
pursue short-term stability at the expense of this vital
long-term strategic goal. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Senator James Talent, accompanied by Military
Legislative Assistant Lindsey Neas, Legislative Fellow Lore
Aguayo, and Navy Senate Liaison Deputy Director Cpt. James
Stein met December 6 with Harry Kney-Tal, MFA Deputy Director
General for Intelligence and Research, and Baruch Binah,
Director of the International Affairs Bureau at the MFA.
Poloff (notetaker) and MFA North America desk officer Nina
Ben-Ami also accompanied.

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Paradoxical Relationship
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3. (C) Kney-Tal opened the meeting by saying that resolution
of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is increasingly important
and adamantly opposed by countries like Iran and Syria that
are concerned that a settlement would diminish their
influence. Calling Syria a paradox, Kney-Tal highlighted the
contradiction between Syria's opposition to settling the
Israeli-Palestinian dispute and the sporadic overtures Syria
began sending in December 2003 with the publication of a New
York Times interview in which Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad called for a return to Israel-Syria negotiations.


4

. (C) Syria, Kney-Tal continued, is only making "cosmetic"
adjustments to its policy, fearful of doing more because of
Syria's strategic relations with Iran. Before Syria gives
away anything that might imperil that relationship, Kney-Tal
predicted, al-Assad is going to want "something new" in its
place. Furthermore, negotiations with Israel will doubtless
entail Syria eventually giving up Lebanon, Kney-Tal said,
something that Syria cannot afford economically. Here, too,
Syria would expect to have something in place before making
any sort of move. The Syrians do realize, however, that if
and when the Palestinian negotiation track takes off, Syria
will be left behind. Syrian actions and statements now are
intended to keep Syria in Israel's mind as a potential
partner, Kney-Tal said, stressing that Syria could be a major
roadblock to any settlement with the Palestinians if it so
chooses.


5. (C) Lebanon remains lucrative for Syria, as more than one
million Syrians work there and send remittances home to their
families in Syria. In addition, many senior Syrian military
leaders continue to live well off of both illicit enterprises
(such as drug smuggling and counterfeiting) and legal
business ventures they developed while stationed in Lebanon,
all of which they would be reluctant to give up easily.
Kney-Tal predicted that current Syrian troop levels in
Lebanon will likely decrease to some 3,000 troops, from the
current 16,000 troops, in the coming months, deployed largely
in the Beka'a valley. Syria is instead building up cultural,
educational and economic ties, Kney-Tal said, exerting its
influence in Lebanon in ways similar to those the former
Soviet government used to control its satellites in Eastern
Europe.

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Bashar In Charge, But Rigid System Could Crack
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6. (C) In response to Senator Talent's question, Kney-Tal
said that the GOI believes that al-Assad is the one making
the decisions in Syria, albeit after what Kney-Tal called
"wide consultations." The old system of vested interests
remains in place from the time of his father, Hafez al-Assad,
Kney-Tal cautioned, and Bashar al-Assad must maintain a
careful balance between these interests. Fearing that
opportunities for progress will be missed throughout the Arab
world, Kney-Tal lamented the fact that bold leadership does
not appear to exist presently anywhere in the Arab world.
Although Bashar al-Assad is nominally in charge, he remains a
captive of the system. If Assad shakes the system too
sharply in the name of democratization, Kney-Tal said, his
Allawite support base (some 12 percent of the population)
could bring him down in order to save its prerogatives as the
ruling elite.
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"Ideological Challenge Not Seen Since WWII"
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7. (C) Kney-Tal called the current situation ideologically
challenging in a way not seen since WWII. Europe prefers to
maintain the status quo, Kney-Tal said, but the United States
has rejected this course in the Middle East, preferring to
risk short-term instability in the hope of making long-term
gains by developing democratic allies. With this approach,
President Bush is also challenging the Western alliance,
which he is pushing to adapt to his strategy, Kney-Tal said.
Binah added that it is not a question of party politics in
America -- even liberals are now unwilling to relinquish a
leadership role for the U.S. in the region and in the war on
terrorism. Senator Talent concurred, rejecting any
suggestion that the U.S. go along with a bad regime, such as
Syria's, in hopes of reaping short-term gains in, for
example, Iraq. The tide of what people in the region want is
simply too strong, Senator Talent concluded, and it is
essential for the U.S. to be on side pushing for broader
democratization.


8. (U) CODEL Talent has cleared this cable.

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