C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001455

SIPDIS

NEA FOR BURNS/SATTERFIELD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2009
TAGS: ECON PREL KWBG IS GAZA DISENGAGEMENT ISRAELI PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS
SUBJECT: VIOLENT WEEKEND IN GAZA - IS THIS THE STORM BEFORE
THE QUIET?

Classified By: Economic Counselor Ted Mann, Reasons 1.4 (B) & (D)

This cable has been cleared by ConGen Jerusalem.


1. (C) Summary: On Saturday, March 6, four suicide bombers
who were apparently en route to Erez crossing detonated
prematurely, killing themselves and two PA security officers.
Eighteen persons were injured as a result of the explosion
and/or return fire from the IDF. On Sunday March 7, the IDF
staged a large-scale incursion into the adjacent Bureij and
Nuseirat refugee camps and met with significant resistance
from armed militiamen and other camp residents. As a result
of the fighting, 14 Palestinians died, including nine Hamas
members and three youth civilians, all under age 15. No
Israeli injuries resulted from the incursion. Gaza contacts
expressed dismay that militants continue to target Erez
crossing, noting that it only increases the hardships for
laborers. However, public criticism of acts of "resistance"
remains taboo. Regarding the camp incursion, many saw
inconsistencies between what they view as "heavy-handed" IDF
tactics, and the GOI's announced withdrawal plans. Contacts
predicted that both Palestinian militants and the GOI would
continue to "hit one another" in order to ensure that neither
was able to "claim the victory" post-withdrawal. End
Summary.

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Erez - Public Unhappy About Target, But Taboo to Criticize
-------------- --------------


2. (C) On March 6, militants attempted a sophisticated
attack, driving two explosive-laden jeeps, disguised to look
like IDF vehicles, towards Erez crossing. According to
UNRWA, the first jeep approached an IDF position and
militants opened fire on the soldiers. The soldiers returned
fire, killing the militants. The second jeep exploded
(apparently prematurely) near the Palestinian checkpoint,
killing the two militants inside and two members of the
Palestinian National Security Forces (NSF). The IDF
responded by directing heavy fire towards the Palestinian
position. A total of eighteen persons were injured,
including twelve security officials and a

five-year-old boy
as a result of the explosion and/or return fire from the IDF.
Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and Al-Aqsa brigades
claimed responsibility for this coordinated attack. The GOI
closed Erez crossing after the attack.


3. (C) Gaza contacts reported that most ordinary Gazans were
dissatisfied with the militants' apparent decision to target
Erez crossing over the past few months. Everyone knows, they
said, that these actions will have a negative impact on the
workers and any other Palestinian needing to use that
crossing. Journalist contacts Tagrid El-Khoudary (N.Y.
Times) and Saud Abu Ramadan (Reuters) said that there was
lots of grumbling on the street, in grocery stores, and
throughout the community as people predicted bitterly that
workers would again lose several days worth of wages. When
pressed, however, El-Khoudary said that all shied from
criticizing the militants directly and placed blame squarely
upon Israel for the occupation. Salah Sakka, a member of the
Gaza municipal council, said, "Even though we all disagree
with that target, no one would dare to complain. We are all
afraid of the militants and, in addition, we do not want to
be viewed as traitors."


4. (C) Asked whether such attacks, which have such a direct
and clear negative impact on ordinary Palestinians, were
likely to weaken support for the militant groups, contacts
replied, "no." El-Khoudary noted that the militant groups
did attempt to ward off any potential backlash from the
public by noting that they "deliberately" chose a day
(Saturday), on which no workers would be present, in order to
avoid accidentally harming them in the explosion.


5. (C) PLC member Ziad Abu Amr, speculated that militants
have switched to attacking Erez, as opposed to settlements
for example, merely because it is easier. Gaining access to
Erez is much more feasible than attempting to penetrate
settlement security. A successful attack at Erez is also
likely to result in higher Israeli casualties, he opined.

-------------- --------------
IDF Incursion - 14 Palestinians Killed; Hamas Vows Revenge
-------------- --------------


6. (C) On Sunday, March 7, the IDF staged an incursion into
El-Bureij and Nuseirat refugee camps. According to DAO
sources, the purpose of the operation was to strike at an
area known for launching mortar and anti-tank fire. DAO
sources said that Palestinians responded aggressively with
numerous armed men moving to engage IDF forces with anti-tank
rocket fire and grenades. Since the first of March, there
have been fourteen mortar attacks from Gaza, but no injuries
or significant damage.


7. (C) As a result of the fighting, fourteen Palestinians
were killed -- nine Hamas members, one Palestinian Resistance
member, and four civilians, including three children. Dozens
of others, mostly youth, were injured. The Israeli press
reported widely that the incursion, which began in the early
morning hours, was meant to be brief. The IDF was compelled,
however, to stay longer than anticipated when a tank became
temporarily disabled, according to these reports. The fact
that the IDF was still present in the area when the
work/school day began likely contributed to increased
casualties, particularly among the youth. The nine-year-old
boy who was killed, for example, dressed in his school
uniform and told his mother that he was going to school.
Instead of going to classes, however, he went to the scene of
the still on-going clashes where he was killed. DAO sources
did not report a disabled tank, however analysts said the
scenario reported in the press seemed "plausible."


8. (C) El-Khoudary interviewed a family whose home the IDF
used for sniper positions. El-Khodary reported that the
incursion was unexpected. The IDF allegedly "invaded" the
home and locked 20 members of the family into one room. Once
released, the family purportedly found their home
"ransacked", their garden "mangled", and several items of
jewelry and cash missing.


9. (U) Contacts reported that there was "a lot of anger" in
the streets as funerals concluded on March 8. Many
questioned why Israel would attempt such a large-scale
operation at a time when PM Sharon has announced his
intention to withdraw from the Gaza Strip. In their public
statements, both Hamas and Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades promised
to exact a "painful" revenge, for the operation and both
linked the U.S. and Israel in their vituperation. Hamas went
so for as to allege that the U.S. "approved" Israel's
incursion.

--------------
And Where's the PA?
--------------


10. (C) Gaza contacts universally dismissed the role of the
PA in responding to the incursions. One contact said, "The
PA does not exist in Gaza." Palestinian national television
covered the incursions extensively but broadcast only
interviews from low-ranking PA officials, according to
contacts. Salah Sakka said that listening to the PA after
these incursions is akin to pressing the "play" button on a
tape recorder: The PA condemns the "massacre;" then urges
citizens to keep the faith and uphold the resistance.
Although the top Hamas leaders did not grant interviews due
to concerns for their personal security, Hamas did stage a
large rally in the camps.


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Israel and Palestinians - Scoring Points Before Withdrawal?
-------------- --------------


11. (U) Both Israeli and Palestinian media are replete with
speculation that the GOI is attempting to "hit Gaza hard"
before withdrawal so that it is not seen as "leaving with its
tail between its legs." Outgoing IDF commander Brigadier
General Gadi Shamni was circumspect in a March 8 interview
carried by the left-leaning daily, Ha'aretz. Shamni
emphasized that withdrawal decisions were up to the political
echelon and the IDF would continue carrying out its mission
until those decisions were finalized. Shamni, however,
emphasized that the IDF was "winning and had no problem
continuing to fight." Shamni added that "IDF pressure would
continue to increase," the extent of military pressure being
an important element in "dealing with terror."


12. (C) PLC member Abu Amr averred that both Israel and the
militants may be "trying to score points" with each,
determined that the other not walk away in triumph following
the withdrawal. Abu Amr said that militants are trying to
send a message to both Israel and the PA. He said to Israel,
the message is that the withdrawal must be more than a
security arrangement. It must be part of a broader political
agenda; otherwise attacks will continue. To the PA, the
attacks represent a jockeying for power. The attacks say
that we (the militants) will not be ignored and we must be
brought into national political arrangements following the
withdrawal.


13. (C) Abu Amr questioned the motivations behind the
incursion and other recent Israeli actions which he viewed as
"heavy handed." There was no "ticking bomb", he said. This
incursion was not "necessary" at this time. If Israel
intends to withdraw from Gaza and "wash her hands" of
negotiations with the PA, then these sorts of actions "make
sense", he said. They represent one last show of force.
However, if the withdrawal is meant to set the stage for
broader negotiations, then they are absolutely the wrong
tactic, he stressed. There is no doubt that at the first
available opportunity, Hamas will respond; and then Israel
will counter-attack. This is the wrong environment to foster
if our goal is to begin negotiating with one another again,
he concluded.




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