HONDURAN PRIMARY ELECTIONS IN FEBRUARY: PASTOR AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TEGUCIGALPA 002646 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR WHA, WHA/PPC, AND WHA/CEN STATE FOR EB, INL, INR/AN/IAA, AND INR/B E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON SNAR KJUS PINR HO SUBJECT: HONDURAN PRIMARY ELECTIONS IN FEBRUARY: PASTOR AND LOBO IN NATIONALIST FIGHT; ZELAYA LEADS THE LIBERALS REF: A. TEGUCIGALPA 2635 ¶B. TEGUCIGALPA 1541 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. With the February 20, 2005, primary elections three months away, the race is tightening on the Nationalists side with President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo closing the gap on Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor. On the Liberal side, politician Mel Zelaya is pulling away from the rest of the pack and looks likely to win the nomination. Turnout could be the key in these open primaries, the first ever for congressional and city council candidates. End Summary. ¶2. (U) With the February 20, 2005, primary elections only three months away, here is a snapshot of the leading movements and their candidates for president and vice president. (Each movement also has a slate of congressional, mayoral, and city council candidates.) National Party (center/right) -------------- "New Time" -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Miguel Pastor is the Mayor of Tegucigalpa, young and media savvy, and has been campaigning as an electable fresh face based on his success as mayor. He represents a generational change in the current political leadership and he has been distancing himself from Ricardo Maduro's Administration. VP Carlos Lopez Contreras is a former Foreign Minister and current Honduran representative for Hague border issues. He is a VP candidate with gravitas. Pastor, with family connections in major media outlets, had a commanding lead in the polls, but Lobo has the support of many party insiders and has been gaining strength in recent polls. The Pastor movement's San Pedro Sula Mayoral candidate is incumbent Mayor Oscar Kilgore, which gives him a strong base on the north coast. "Work and Security" -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo is President of Congress with considerable experience in politics and as an agrobusinessman. VP Mario Canahuati is the current Honduran Ambassador to the U.S., and a maquila businessman who helps bring support in the San Pedro Sula area. Lobo is running as a law and order candidate with proven effectiveness as President of Congress. He has charisma problems but is very well connected and favored by many party insiders. Lobo has many links to the "dark side" of the National Party. Lobo's Tegucigalpa mayoral candidate is President Maduro's private secretary Ricardo Alvarez, who holds a commanding lead in the SIPDIS mayoral race. "For a Better Alternative" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Gilberto "Picho" Goldstein is a congressman and businessman. VP Irma Acosta de Fortin is a university rector and was Raphael Callejas' VP candidate the first time Callejas ran (and lost). Goldstein has no chance of getting the Nationalist Party nomination, but has some old guard support in the party. Interestingly, he has become a vocal supporter of the recent electoral reforms (reftels). ¶6. (U) Also running, but garnering even less support, is presidential candidate Jesus Flores and VP Oscar Zuniga. Pastor Lead Slips as Lobo Gains -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Pastor, who once had a commanding lead over Lobo in the polls, now only has a 10 percent lead. An unpublished October 30 poll that EmbOffs have seen from an independent and credible polling firm reads as follows: - Pastor 52 percent - Lobo 42 percent - Goldstein 5 percent ¶8. (SBU) The same poll in early September had Pastor leading Lobo by almost 30 percent. Pastor has lost ground among Nationalists, Liberals, and independents. Many independents who previously said they would vote for Pastor are now in the undecided column. Pastor has retained strong support in the 18-40 years old age group, but Lobo leads among those over 40 years old, who are more likely to vote. Pastor has been urging the GOH to do a better job of registering young adults so they can be eligible to vote in the primary. ¶9. (SBU) Theories abound as to why Pastor has lost ground and Lobo has gained. The October 20 submission of the candidate lists for each movement may have led some weak Pastor supporters, who were left off the Pastor lists, to defect to Lobo. Lobo's choice of Canahuati as VP appears to have helped Lobo more than Pastor's choice of Lopez Contreras has helped Pastor. Pastor also recently lost a key grass-roots organizer and very popular local leader in the Tegucigalpa area, Renan Inestroza, who switched to the Lobo campaign after a falling-out with Pastor. Inestroza reportedly thought he was promised a top slot on the congressional candidate list by Pastor and switched to Lobo when he didn't make the list. Ironically, Inestroza is not on Lobo's congressional candidate list either. ¶10. (SBU) While the campaign is not officially on, Lobo as President of Congress has been running a series of basic but effective messages articulating his position on a number of hot issues - crime, death penalty, gangs, jobs, gay marriage, etc. Lobo has also been running a negative campaign against Pastor. At the same time, Pastor has been running slick, but vacuous, ads, promoting himself as the electable candidate with leadership and a fresh approach, but not saying anything substantive. Ironically, the leading Liberal candidate, Mel Zelaya, is running a campaign that is somewhat similar to Pastor's campaign, but with a lower profile. Perhaps realizing Lobo's issues-based campaign appears to be working, Pastor's latest ad is much more substantive. Pastor is also likely to criticize Lobo for breaking his promise not to run for president when he was chosen as President of Congress. Liberal Party (center/left) -------------- "Liberal Hope" -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Manuel Zelaya Rosales, previously a congressman, is a politician, a farmer, and does not have a university degree. VP Elvin Santos is a young businessman and the son of politician (his father has a questionable reputation). The leading Liberal Party candidate by default it seems; at this time Zelaya clearly has a commanding lead in the race for his party's nomination. "Jaime's Liberal Movement" -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Jaime Rosenthal Oliva is a businessman, congressman, and all-around wheeler-dealer with a shady reputation. VP Ramon Villeda Bermudez is a congressman, veterinarian, and a past presidential contender who never gained the nomination. Villeda is the son of former President Ramon Villeda Morales, who restored democracy to Honduras in the 1950s. A Liberal Party dinosaur, Rosenthal is the quintessential party insider who is unable to move up in the polls, despite heavy self-advertising (he runs one of the four major newspapers and a television channel). He shows no signs of being able to topple Zelaya, and indications are that he plans to go negative on Zelaya to try to change the dynamic of the race. "New Majority" -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Gabriela Nunez de Reyes is an advisor for Atlantic Bank, a former Minister of Finance in the Carlos Flores Administration, and previously worked for the IMF. She is the most viable of the female presidential candidates. VP Guillermo Alvarado Downing is a former Minister of Agriculture under the Flores Administration and an agrobusinessman. Nunez is someone to watch in the future, but she has little chance to beat Zelaya. "Pineda's Liberal Movement" -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Rafael Pineda Ponce is a congressman, an elder statesman, and is currently suffering from cancer. VP Yansi Juarez is a woman and an unknown figure. Pineda, a former President of Congress, has some campesino and union support. He is respected but has a low chance of winning the nomination; his days as party leader are behind him. ¶15. (SBU) Also running, but with even less support, is presidential candidate Hugo Noe Pino, a former Ambassador to the U.S. and Minister of Finance, and VP Elsa Palou, Congressman Jorge Arturo Reina and VP Virginia Figueroa, Vera Rubi and VP Edgardo Caceres Castellanos, and Mayor of Puerto Cortes Marlon Lara and VP Daniel Davila Nolasco. Zelaya With Commanding Lead -------------- ¶16. (SBU) The same unpublished October 30 poll cited previously reads as follows for the Liberals: - Zelaya 52 percent - Rosenthal 22 percent - Nunez 9 percent - Pineda Ponce 8 percent ¶17. (SBU) Zelaya's lead over his Liberal rivals has increased, as Pineda Ponce has slipped to fourth place. Rosenthal, despite more advertising than Zelaya, has not gained any ground. As previously noted, Zelaya's campaign is somewhat similar to Pastor's as it has portrayed him as the electable candidate, without saying anything substantive. However, Rosenthal has been unable thus far to force Zelaya into a battle, as Lobo has done with Pastor. Barring an unexpected development, final results are likely to be along the lines shown above in the current poll. Nunez and Lara are the generational transition candidates in the Liberal Party and are positioning themselves for the 2009 elections. Minor Parties -------------- ¶18. (SBU) The Democratic Unification Party (UD) candidates are "United People Movement" presidential candidate Juan Almendarez (former communist, heads small human rights NGO), VP Martha Isabel Sandoval, and "popular Convergence" movement presidential candidate Jose Maria Turcios (former communist, alleged to be involved in kidnapping of a bank president in 1981),VP candidate unclear. The UD is far to the left and is often an anti-U.S. party. They have support from the leftist protest organization Popular Block and a few public sector unions. The second UD movement may not be registered, in which case the UD would not participate in the primaries. ¶19. (SBU) The Christian Democratic Party (PCD) candidate is Juan Ramon Martinez (op/ed writer),VP candidate Adela de Chavarria. The Innovation and Unity Party (PINU) candidate is Carlos Sosa Coello (congressman),VP candidate Olga Morales de Galindolean. The PINU and DC tickets are running unopposed for their parties' nominations, and neither has a chance to win the presidency. The PCD leans to the right and PINU leans toward the left. Key Issues on Voter's Minds -------------- ¶20. (SBU) In the October poll, Maduro's performance was rated as bad/very bad by 53 percent of respondents, with 40 percent rating it as good/very good. This does not bode well for the Nationalists. Also, corruption scandals in November have hurt the Nationalists as voters increasingly doubt their ability to tackle endemic corruption in Honduras. The Nationalists and Liberals were tied at 42 percent in voter's party preference; Pastor (26 percent) held a slight lead over Zelaya (22 percent) and Lobo (20 percent) for president. When asked what was the most pressing problem facing Honduras, here is how voters answered: September 2002 August 2004 crime 44 percent unemployment 30 percent unemployment 19 percent crime 22 percent cost of living 17 percent cost of living 21 percent ¶21. (SBU) On the surface, the switch from crime and unemployment as a top voter concern during the last two years should help the Liberals. The Nationalists, thanks to Maduro, Lobo, and others, are now seen as the law and order/tough on crime candidates. The Liberals have criticized the Maduro Administration's failure to boost economic growth. However, to a certain extent, this change in voter attitudes may be due to voters giving the Maduro Administration credit in the one area they have clearly fought to make a difference - crime. This credit could potentially help the Nationalists, particularly Pepe Lobo. ¶22. (SBU) However, one mitigating factor in favor of the Liberals is that the two Nationalist candidates have been advertising their respective accomplishments for more than two years without any Liberal Party opposition advertising, aside from Rosenthal's self-promotion. Once the Liberals roll out their campaigns and begin to frame their message on economic issues, the Nationalists could be vulnerable on these issues. ¶23. (SBU) Turnout could be the key to who wins in these open primaries. In the same October poll, only 37 percent said they planned to vote in the primaries, with 42 percent saying no, and 21 percent saying they were unsure. Pastor or Lobo vs. Zelaya -------------- ¶24. (SBU) Comment: At this point, it appears that the presidential race will be Pastor or Lobo vs. Zelaya, with three months of hard campaigning ahead. Will Pastor be able to halt Lobo's surge and rebuild some of his shrinking lead? Will Lobo's broken pledge not to run for President come back to haunt him? Will Rosenthal be able to shake up the race and put Zelaya's win in jeopardy? Who will turn out to vote and which primary will they vote in? The answers to these questions will determine the outcome of the presidential primaries. End Comment. Palmer