GUNMEN SHOOT CAR OF PRESIDENT OF HONDURAN CONGRESS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000258

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CEN, INL/LP, INR, AND DS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV KCRM KJUS SNAR ASEC PHUM PINR HO
SUBJECT: GUNMEN SHOOT CAR OF PRESIDENT OF HONDURAN CONGRESS
PEPE LOBO; ATTEMPTED ASSASSINATION OR ROBBERY?

REF: A. 03 TEGUCIGALPA 2301


B. 03 TEGUCIGALPA 1904

C. 03 TEGUCIGALPA 882

Classified By: Political Counselor Francisco Palmieri;
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: Unknown gunmen shot at the car of Porfirio
"Pepe" Lobo, President of Congress, February 1. Lobo was not
in the car at the time, and his driver, two aides, a
bodyguard, and an army officer in the car were unhurt.
Police believe that the attack was either (a) linked to
threats (made public January 24) targeting Lobo for
assassination by gang members due to his strong support for a
controversial anti-gang law, or (b) an attempted robbery and
not a targeted attack. Whether or not this attack was an
attempt to assassinate Lobo, the GOH is prudently taking
seriously threats of violence by gangs/narcotraffickers
toward senior GOH officials. End Summary.


2. (SBU/NOFORN) Unknown gunmen using AK-47s shot at the car
of Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, President of Congress, the morning
of February 1 on Highway 15, the road from Tegucigalpa to
Juticalpa, near kilometer 93 on the border of the Departments
of Francisco Morazan and Olancho. Unlike Highways 39 and 41
in Olancho that are subject to highway robbery (as mentioned
in the Consular Information Sheet),this stretch of Highway
15 is heavily traveled and not known for banditry. Police
reportedly found four AK-47 shell casings at the crime scene.
Lobo was not in the Chevrolet Suburban at the time, and his
driver, two aides, a bodyguard, and an army second lieutenant
in the car were unhurt. Lobo is entitled to security as
president of Congress, but it is unclear why an army officer
was in the car. There are conflicting reports, some of which
indicate that Lobo had planned to make the trip by road but
at the last minute went by helicopter instead, thus avoiding
the attack.


3. (U) Police believe that the attack may be linked to
threats, made public January 24, that Lobo had been targeted
for assassination by gang members due to his strong support
for a controversial anti-gang law. On August 8, the Honduran
National Congress approved a bill banning membership in
street gangs and other groups that associate for the purpose
of committing crimes. The bill prescribed prison terms for
those convicted of being gang members, with sentences ranging
from three to 12 years depending on the individual's level of
involvement and seniority (ref B). Press reports indicated
that the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of
Defense believed the threats to be credible.


4. (S) However, Minister of Public Security Oscar Alvarez
told Law Enforcement Assistance Coordinator at the time that,
while Lobo had been advised to take the threats seriously,
Alvarez did not believe the threats were credible. (Note:
It would be unusual for a politician to receive credible
deaths threats linked to a general political action, as
opposed to personal involvement in a controversial private
issue. It is worth noting that over the last six months
there have been several allegations and/or incidents
involving members of Lobo's extended family involving
narco-related crime. While Lobo himself has not been
implicated in these allegations/incidents, they could
potentially put him at risk for a targeted killing. End
Note.)


5. (U) An alternate theory that police are investigating is
that his car was targeted by bandits, similar to the April
10, 2003, attack on the advance car of First Lady Aguas Ocana
de Maduro (ref C),and that Lobo himself was not a target.
Police are investigating both theories.


6. (U) The anti-gang law has been popular with the public,
but has been criticized by human rights organizations and
challenged as unconstitutional (so far unsuccessfully, with
two separate cases being dismissed). The Maduro
Administration has trumpeted the law as being key to recent
successes in reducing the number of violent crimes, including
murder (ref A). Observers have estimated there are upwards
of 100,000 gang members and associates, with two main gangs
being Mara Salvatrucha and 18 (diez y ocho),and have pinned
much of the blame for the country's astronomical murder rates
and violent narcotrafficking on gangs.


7. (U) Lobo himself has used the law's popularity as a
launching pad for his nascent presidential campaign. He is
considered by most observers and polls to be running second
to Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor for the National Party
presidential slot for the election in 2005. President
Ricardo Maduro, a Nationalist Party member, cannot run for
reelection.


8. (C) Comment: Whether or not this attack was an attempt to
assassinate Pepe Lobo, the GOH is right to take threats of
violence by gangs/narcotraffickers toward Lobo (and senior
Ministry of Public Security officials) seriously, even if
this specific threat may not have been credible. A culture
of impunity fueled by a weak rule of law, gang violence, and
the pervasive influence of narco-corruption helps make
Honduras a very violent country. Meanwhile, the anti-gang
law has become a cornerstone of the Maduro Administration's
war on crime. It remains to be seen, however, if short-term
gains against gangs will mean a long-term improvement in
reducing the level of violence. End Comment.
PALMER