TEGUCIGALPA PROTEST PLANNED FOR FEBRUARY 5: IMF

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000236

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CEN, EB, DS, AND INR
STATE PASS TO USTR
DOL FOR ILAB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2014
TAGS: PGOV ELAB SOCI ETRD PREL ECON ASEC PINR HO
SUBJECT: TEGUCIGALPA PROTEST PLANNED FOR FEBRUARY 5: IMF
DEAL, CAFTA/FTAA, IRAQ, AND MINIMUM WAGE LIKELY THEMES


Classified By: Political Counselor Francisco Plamieri;
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: The leftist organization Popular Block is
planning a large protest march for February 5 in Tegucigalpa.
The protest, which may include over a thousand
demonstrators, will focus on controversial domestic
legislation linked to the recent IMF agreement and various
U.S. foreign policy issues, such as Iraq, CAFTA, and the
FTAA. According to congressional and Presidential House
insiders, President Maduro's decision not to dismiss some key
ministers, such as Education Minister Carlos Avila and Health
Minister Elias Lizardo, is also exacerbating the situation.
The Popular Block may be joined by all three labor
confederations who are demanding a 30 percent increase in the
minimum wage, vice the seven percent offered by private
business. The march is planned to end at the Presidential
Palace, but may also include a demonstration outside the
Embassy. Post does not expect the protest to be
destabilizing for the GOH. End Summary.


2. (U) The leftist organization Popular Block is planning a
large protest march for February 5 in Tegucigalpa. The
Popular Block is led by Carlos H. Reyes, leader of the union
at the beer company and a galvanizing force in Honduran
protests. The protest is likely to focus on the following
issues: recent controversial actions by Congress to meet
stringent IMF terms for a letter of intent, including
reductions in pay and benefits for public sector teachers and
doctors and an increase in gas prices; the recently
negotiated U.S.-Central American Free Trade Agreement
(CAFTA); the planned Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA);
Iraq and the unpopular deployment of Honduran Task Force
Xatruch to Iraq; Plan Pueblo Panama; and other globalization
issues.


3. (C) According to congressional and Presidential House
insiders, President Ricardo Maduro's decision not to dismiss
some key, but controversial, ministers, such as Education
Minister Carlos Avila and Health Minister Elias Lizardo, is
also exacerbating the situation. Apparently President Maduro
or his negotiators agreed to the dismissal of the Education
and Health Ministers as part of the deal to win congressional
approval in late December 2003 of legislation that was a
precursor to an IMF letter of intent.


4. (U) The three labor confederations, CGT, CTH, and CUTH,
may join the protest to voice their demand for a 30 percent
raise in the minimum wage for 2004. Tripartite negotiations
(GOH, private sector (COHEP),and the three union
confederations) have failed thus far, with business offering
only a 7 percent raise. (Note: Inflation in 2003 was
approximately 7.7 percent. In 2003, the minimum wage was
raised 12 percent for workers in small agriculture, but only
nine percent for most other workers. Inflation in 2002 was
approximately 8.1 percent. End Note.) Minister of Labor
German Leitzelar has called for another tripartite meeting
February 5, which may not happen if the union confederations
take to the streets instead.


5. (SBU) The latest information the Embassy has is that the
protest march will start in the old section of Tegucigalpa
known as Comayaguela and end at the Presidential Palace.
However, it is possible that demonstrations may occur at the
Congress and even outside the Embassy.


6. (C) Comment: While most protests in Tegucigalpa are
peaceful and number no more than a few hundred protesters,
some protests lately have involved over a thousand
protesters, and have had a tendency to lurch out of control
at the end, with vandalism, Molotov cocktails, and clashes
with police. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the protest
will be destabilizing for the GOH. Nor is it likely that it
will have any effect on GOH policy. According to his private
secretary, President Maduro appears to have dug in his heels

SIPDIS
and is loath to fire ministers whom he believes have done a
good job implementing his reform program. End Comment.
PALMER