Honduras: President Gives Economic Overview

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TEGUCIGALPA 002093 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC, AND EB STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAM DOL FOR ILAB TREASURY FOR DDouglass E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON ETRD ELAB EINV HO SUBJECT: Honduras: President Gives Economic Overview REF: A. Tegucigalpa 1599 ¶B. Tegucigalpa 2057 ¶C. Tegucigalpa 1984 ¶1. Summary: On September 9, at the opening of an event to promote DR-CAFTA, President Ricardo Maduro presented a sweeping overview of the state of the Honduran economy. As usual, President Maduro emphasized what he sees as the accomplishments of his administration - reining in government spending, improved public security, increased investment, and accelerated economic growth - yet also spoke frankly of the challenges that remain, specifically the need for continued fiscal discipline and the weakness of the financial sector. End summary. ¶2. Leaving his notes on the table, President Ricardo Maduro delivered a wide-ranging extemporaneous overview of the Honduran economy in his keynote address to the recent Caribbean Central America Action (CCAA) conference on the DR- CAFTA trade agreement. In his 30-minute address to the September 9 gathering, Maduro stressed sustained growth through continuity of policy, and highlighted his administration's economic programs and priorities. Though the presidential primaries are more than five months away, the political season has already begun in earnest in Tegucigalpa. Maduro himself is ineligible under the Honduran Constitution to stand for another term, but his message of continuity was clearly calibrated to support the National Party candidate (according to recent polls likely to be Tegucigalpa Mayor Miguel Pastor or President of Congress Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo) as next year's elections approach. ¶3. Maduro opened by saying that poverty reduction through job creation and sustained economic growth continue to be the organizing principles behind the GOH economic policy. Achieving these objectives will require significant foreign and domestic investment. Maduro estimated that to reach an annual growth rate of 6 percent (slightly over 3 percent in per capita terms) Honduras must attract over $3 billion of investment per year for the next 20 years. Continued moves toward regional integration, such as DR-CAFTA, will be critical to attracting this investment, as will be overall confidence in GOH economic stewardship. For example, the GOH has been relatively successful in containing inflation, holding it to just 6.8 percent in 2003. A spike in annualized inflation for 2004 (year to date) to approximately 9 percent has the GOH and IMF appropriately concerned, though Maduro attributed much of this rise to higher energy prices. ¶4. Maduro highlighted the need for stability of remittances flows from Hondurans abroad, primarily in the United States, calling them "fundamental" to the Honduran economy. He estimated that current remittances total nearly $1 billion per year, up 28 percent over last year and equivalent to nearly 15 percent of Honduras' GDP. According to Maduro, these flows directly or indirectly assist half of the population of Honduras. (Note: Foreign Minister Leonidas Rosa Bautista is conducting meetings in Washington September 16-17 to press for U.S. renewal of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Hondurans who claim they cannot return to Honduras due to the damage wrought by the 1998 Hurricane Mitch. Estimates of the number of Hondurans currently in the U.S. range from 650,000 to nearly 1 million, but of those only 87,000 benefit from TPS. The continued strong growth in total remittances is consistent with the trend in remittances to Honduras over the last several years, and with similar growth trends seen in other Central American countries. This growth is variously attributed to increased numbers of expatriate Hondurans, economic growth in the U.S., increased social and economic stability of Hondurans resident in the U.S., and decreasing remittance costs. End note.) ¶5. Maduro stressed the need to continue to advance in improving the investment climate, noting that if this process is done badly, the resulting growth will not be sustainable in the long term. He said there is a continuing need for meaningful civil service reform, to promote the formation of a cadre of experienced technical staff within the GOH ministries. The current trend, to replace the entire staff right down to the char force after each election, robs the GOH of institutional memory, setting back the pace of progress and undermining hard-won reforms put in place by previous administrations. (Note: The exception to this rule appears to be the Central Bank, which, largely because it is outside the existing civil service system, manages to retain a significant portion of its technical staff from administration to administration. The 18 month- old Supreme Accounts Tribunal (TSC),roughly equivalent to the U.S. GAO, has internalized this lesson and in its recently completed hiring and retention guidelines has instituted protections for its staff (septel, forthcoming). Other ministries are looking for models they can adopt that would provide their senior technical staff with similar stability (septel, forthcoming). The Maduro Administration, however, has not made it a priority to pass a new civil service law to end this problem throughout the GOH. End note.) ¶6. Maduro, elected on a law-and-order platform, also recognized that public security remains a concern for investors. He cited the dramatic drop under his administration in bank robberies and carjackings, and vowed to continue to improve public safety. His government enacted anti-gang ("maras") legislation over a year ago, he said, and Honduran police and military forces now recognize local and transnational criminal gangs as a genuine and significant threat to social stability and sustained economic growth. ¶7. Fiscal discipline, a centerpiece of the GOH agreement with the IMF, will continue to challenge a government struggling to balance development needs with a stable and welcoming investment climate. Maduro noted that a primary GOH goal is to reduce the portion of the federal budget dedicated to government employee salaries from its current 11 percent to below 8 percent over the next four years. (This has sparked protests from the powerful teachers' unions, including a six-week walkout in June and July (reftel A) and a protest march held on September 15, which precipitated the recent change in Ministers of Education (reftel B)). The 2005 budget, submitted on September 14 and totaling approximately $2.1 billion, remains faithful to these goals, according to Vice Minister of the Presidency Rocio Tabora. Post has not yet had an opportunity to review the proposed budget, but notes that in real terms the total represents only modest growth over last year's $1.92 billion budget. On September 14, Tabora told EconOff that much of this apparent growth is actually an artifact of accounting changes, with bilateral and multilateral donations for the first time being accounted for within the budget. ¶8. Turning briefly to the revenue side of the budget, Maduro underscored progress to date in improving tax collection and expanding the tax base, with the intent of using those additional revenues to reduce the deficit without having to raise taxes on the Honduran public. (While Maduro did not cite the USG in this speech, Post notes that this success is largely the result of efforts by a Treasury and USAID-sponsored technical advisory program which includes a taxation resident advisor in the Honduran tax authority (the DEI). The August 20 signing ceremony for that program's annual renewal, usually conducted at the working level, became instead a Presidential signing ceremony at Maduro's request, with extensive press coverage of Maduro's remarks praising the program.) ¶9. The greatest vulnerability, the President said, is the weakness of the financial sector. While Honduras has been successful in attracting investment into the energy and telecommunications sectors, continued future investment inflows will require increased confidence in the financial system. To move in this direction, as well as to comply with IMF program requirements, the GOH is in the process of passing four key financial laws, covering reforms of the Central Bank, the bank regulator (the CNBS),the bank insurance system (FOSEDE),and a sweeping reform of the financial sector. The first three have been approved by Congress and once printed in the GOH federal register will become law (reftel C). The fourth and key reform is currently in mark-up (the third of three required congressional debates),but is making progress, according to banking sector contacts. ¶10. Comment: Maduro's remarks, broadly consistent with the priorities laid out in the GOH poverty reduction strategy and the IMF agreement, hit many of the right notes for both his domestic and international audiences. There was little new here, but in some ways the medium was the message - the consistency of his message reinforced his message of consistency. However, his almost one hour late arrival at the conference, as well as the long and sometimes unfocused extemporaneous speech, detracted from the message he was trying to get across. As a Stanford-educated economist, Maduro is well aware of the steps he must take to bring his ambitious plan to fruition. He is also clearly aware that this process will extend well beyond the end of his term in ¶2005. Vigilance and discipline in adhering to these goals as we head into the electoral season and beyond will be Maduro's great challenge. Post is reassured by his words, but will watch with interest to see if the GOH can marshal the necessary political will to put those words into action. End comment. Palmer