Maduro Reaches $33 Million Deal with Teachers;

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TEGUCIGALPA 001599 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC, EB, DRL/IL, AND INR STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CEN DOL FOR ILAB TREASURY FOR EIlzetzki E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON EAID ELAB SOCI PINR HO SUBJECT: Maduro Reaches $33 Million Deal with Teachers; School Finally Resumes REF: A. Tegucigalpa 1434 ¶B. Tegucigalpa 232 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On July 10, President Ricardo Maduro and representatives of teachers' unions signed an agreement reinstating certain salary benefits which had been cut in December, thus bringing an end to the 33-day teachers' strike. The GOH did not offer an across-the-board salary increase, but did agree to pay 600 million Lempiras ($33 million) to the teachers over the next two and a half years, in the form of benefits keyed to qualifications and years of service. The GOH will raise this money by drawing upon savings, eliminating two minor ministries, and taking other unspecified actions. While the GOH structured its concessions in such a way that they do not break the terms of the IMF deal negotiated in February, the agreement nonetheless represents a step away from fiscal sustainability. Worse, while teachers are declaring victory, many observers fear that the rank and file do not fully appreciate the limits to the deal that their leaders have signed, and that, as a result, even this deal will not fully satisfy the teachers' grievances. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Late at night on July 8, as a strike by teachers entered its second month and amidst continuing protests (ref A),the GOH acceded to many of the teachers' demands, and agreed to a deal to bring an end to the strike. President Maduro had appointed a three-man commission to negotiate a deal, comprised of Presidential Advisor Ricardo Alvarez, former President Rafael Callejas, and leader of the Christian Democratic party Arturo Corrales. News of the agreement was made public on July 9, sending teachers into the streets in celebration, and the deal itself was signed by President Maduro and representatives of all of the teachers' unions on July 10. -------------- What's in the Deal -------------- ¶3. (U) The agreement reinstates the automatic five-year and three-year salary increases at their previous levels. (Under this scheme, a teacher receives an automatic salary increase every five years for his/her first fifteen years of service, and every three years thereafter.) It also restores the arrangement under which salaries rise with educational qualifications: a 69 percent salary increase for all teachers achieving a tertiary degree, and a 50 percent increase upon completion of the technical education degree. Other smaller benefits, including the "work zone" payment to encourage teachers to take positions in remote areas of the country, were also restored. All of these provisions from the teachers' law were effectively cut by Congress in December 2003. ¶4. (SBU) However, the GOH will pay these benefits only up to certain ceilings prescribed in the agreement: 120 million Lempiras ($6.6 million) for the rest of 2004, and 240 million Lempiras ($13.2 million) per year for 2005 and 2006. There are differing views as to whether these ceilings will be adequate to cover all benefits during these periods. Former President Callejas mentioned to the Ambassador that, in his opinion, the ceilings are higher than necessary, and that in fact the benefits that the GOH must pay out will only amount to 80 million Lempiras this year and 200 million in the years 2005 and 2006, for a total bill of 480 million Lempiras. Most observers, however, believe that the opposite is true, and fear an angry reaction from teachers if the 120 million Lempiras for 2004 run out before the end of the year. ¶5. (SBU) Though their jubilant public reaction suggests otherwise, the teachers also made several concessions to reach the July 10 deal. In addition to the caps on benefits described above, they agreed to forfeit the amounts that they would have been paid for five-year and three-year raises between January and June of this year, and agreed to base future salary increases on the base salary of December 2003, thus slightly reducing the amount that they will receive. They also committed to revise the school calendar for the rest of 2004 so as to recover the class time lost by the strike. Recovering these days will require canceling September and October school holidays, holding classes on Saturdays, and extending the school year into mid-December (instead of early November). Note: Given that teacher absenteeism is already a chronic problem in Honduras, many doubt that the teachers will stick to the plan of Saturday classes for the entire year. End note. ¶6. (SBU) The agreement establishes two further projects not directly tied to teacher remuneration. First, the teachers agreed to a national salary audit to verify the national payroll. This is an urgently needed measure, as anecdotal evidence suggests that there are many "ghost teachers" on the rolls, and that some teachers draw two or three salaries. However no details have yet been provided as to who will carry out this audit, or how. ¶7. (SBU) Second, the agreement calls for the establishment of a commission which will work for improvements in the quality of education, and lists specific measures such as improved teacher training, further definition of the new national curriculum, improvements in educational materials and infrastructure, and greater involvement of parents. All of these measures are badly needed, and many are already addressed in the national Poverty Reduction Strategy. However, no details have yet been given as to how this commission will accomplish its goals, and it seems unlikely that a commission born out of such a contentious political conflict will have much success in addressing the difficult issues of improving educational quality. -------------- What's Not in the Deal? -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Despite the reinstatement of many of the teachers' collateral benefits, the deal does not increase teachers' base salary, and does not repeal the December 2003 salary law (see ref B). This is important as it allows the Maduro administration to claim that it is still in compliance with at least the letter (if not the spirit) of the February IMF agreement. The deal also falls far short of fully satisfying the teachers' more extreme demands, which at one point were are as high as 2.9 billion Lempiras ($159 million) in salaries and benefits, and the creation of an additional 20,000 teaching positions. Perhaps more important than the contents of the agreement that has been made publicly available, however, are alleged side agreements that, according to several embassy contacts, are being made behind the scenes. -------------- -------------- Teachers' Unions Happy, if GOH Fulfills Commitments -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) Nelson Calix, President of the College of Secondary School Teachers of Honduras (COPEMH) and a key leader for the teachers' unions, told LabAtt July 16 that the deal was "favorable" for teachers. He said that, if the GOH had respected the teachers' law to begin with, the whole confrontation could have been avoided. Calix said that he did not foresee future problems with the Maduro Administration, if the GOH complied with all the terms of the deal. ¶10. (SBU) Arturo Corrales, leader of the Christian Democratic party, who along with former President Callejas and Presidential Adviser Ricardo Alvarez negotiated the settlement on behalf of the GOH, told LabAtt July 13 that things were being blown out of proportion prior to the establishment of the GOH's three-man commission to negotiate an agreement. He said that the commission would meet with the teachers' unions again in August to check on the status of the agreement. Follow-up and trust building will be key, he said, noting that the changes passed by Congress last December had set the stage for this dispute. -------------- The Cost to the GOH -------------- ¶11. (U) The total cost of the deal as made public is 600 million Lempiras (about $33 million),spread out over the next two-and-a-half years as explained above. The 120 million Lempiras to cover the costs of 2004 will be paid out of savings that GOH has accrued between January and May of 2004 - in other words, it will contribute directly to a greater budget deficit than would otherwise have been achieved. In 2005 and 2006, the GOH has publicly announced only that the money will be raised as follows: 90 million Lempiras from EU funds for decentralization, 87 million Lempiras from the closing of two ministries, and 63 million Lempiras from "the sacrifice of other projects". The two ministries to be closed are said to be the Ministry of Culture, Arts and Sports, and the Secretariat for Technical Cooperation or SETCO, which together had 2004 budget allocations totaling 110 million Lempiras. Maduro stressed that taxes will not be increased to pay for the deal. ¶12. (SBU) In a July 16 conversation with EconOff, Vice Minister of Finance William Chong Wong stressed that in fact the GOH's economic position so far in 2004 is quite good, and that, owing to stronger than expected economic growth, the GOH is on track to meet its IMF-prescribed fiscal targets even after taking into account the extra money for the teachers. Chong Wong conceded that the deal was not ideal from a fiscal standpoint, but called it a political necessity which, fortunately, the budget will be able to handle. -------------- Reaction of the IMF -------------- ¶13. (SBU) In a conversation with EconOff, the IMF country representative for Honduras confirmed that the deal with the teachers does not break the terms of the February IMF agreement, as it does not technically change the GOH's overall wage bill. The salary caps that the GOH and the IMF agreed to are still in place. While the use of 120 million Lempiras to pay teachers' benefits this year will increase the budget deficit, it should not prevent the GOH from meeting its target for the year. (120 million Lempiras are equal to about 0.1 percent of GDP; the central government deficit target for 2004 is 3.5 percent of GDP.) The savings from the closing of the ministries is money that was already identified by the IMF at the time of the agreement, and considered a "cushion". If that money goes to the teachers, says the IMF representative, "we've lost the cushion", but not the entire deal. ¶14. (SBU) However, while the GOH is still technically on track with the IMF, the IMF is concerned that the deal will not satisfy teachers' demands beyond the very short term. Based upon the text that has been made publicly available, the teachers received only a partial victory, and when the teachers realize that they didn't gain everything that they were fighting for, the IMF representative fears that teachers may return to the streets, a fear President Maduro shares. Moreover, the deal only addresses the next two-and- a-half years, and, by emboldening teachers, has made the task of designing a new teacher compensation package for 2007 even more difficult. ¶15. (SBU) The IMF has issued no public statement about the deal, and plans none. IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato was in fact in Honduras the day the deal was announced, attending an unrelated event. Rato praised Central American governments in general terms for "strong macroeconomic policies and reforms" of recent years, but avoided any comment on the specifics of the teachers' deal, saying that the IMF needed time to evaluate the terms of the agreement. However, President Maduro told the Ambassador and DCM that, in his meeting with Rato, Rato confirmed that the agreement did not jeopardize the GOH agreement with the IMF. -------------- Sustainable Fiscally, But Politically? -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Comment: If the December salary law represented two steps forward in the GOH's fight to establish fiscal control and rein in the public sector wage bill, this agreement is one step backward. Fortunately, thanks to a favorable macro-economic situation and higher than expected GDP growth, the GOH can afford to make these concessions and still stay on track with the IMF. Politically, however, this agreement probably marks only a pause, and not a permanent resolution, in the ongoing struggle to control teachers' salaries. Still, though far from perfect, the deal does at least have one positive result: after five weeks with no teachers, the nation's 1.6 million public school students have returned to the classrooms. End comment. Palmer