LY ELECTION IN SOUTH -- LITTLE CHANGE, BUT A FEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003987

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/RSP/TC
DEPT PASS AIT/W
/
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION IN SOUTH -- LITTLE CHANGE, BUT A FEW
SURPRISES

REF: A) TAIPEI 3944 (AIT/K) B) TAIPEI 3917 (AIT/K)

Classified By: ROBERT W. FORDEN, AIT KAOHSIUNG PRINCIPAL OFFICER.
REASON: 1.4(B/D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) While Southern Taiwan voted more or less as expected
in the December 11 legislative election, with virtually no
change in the overall Pan-Green/Pan-Blue ratio of legislative
seats, there were a few surprises in individual races. Two
independent candidates in Kaohsiung City who polled very high
prior to the election both lost, showing how important party
organizations were in mobilizing the vote in an election with
very low turnout. A surprisingly strong showing by People
First Party (PFP) candidates in Kaohsiung and Tainan cities
was less about the PFP than about the individuals running and
the methods they employed to mobilize votes. The
surprisingly weak performance of the Taiwan Solidarity Union
(TSU),which lost a seat overall in the South, was due
primarily to over-nomination of Pan Green candidates and poor
vote allocation coordination with the ruling party. Contrary
to the widespread view now circulating that the election
result marked a Pan-Green setback, policy and party
affiliations actually played little role in the outcomes of
most of the local races in the South. End Summary.

Southern Races Overall As Expected
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2. (C) In contrast to the rest of Taiwan, the southern vote
in the December 11 Legislative Yuan (LY) election was very
much as analysts had predicted (reftels). There was
virtually no change in the ratio of seats between the
Pan-Green and Pan-Blue camps. Out of the 48 seats in
Southern Taiwan up for grabs, the DPP took 25, KMT 13, PFP 5
and TSU 2. While the DPP seat total remained unchanged, the
KMT and TSU each lost one seat, and the PFP picked up one
(two, if you count a PFP seat that had been vacant). The
result was consistent with most pre-election estimates which
saw the South as an area in which the Pan-Green had done so
well four years ago, that it was unlikely to be able to
improve on its existing 60/40 dominance of the Southern
Taiwan LY seats.

Leading Independents in Surprise Losses
--------------


3. (C) There were surprises, however, in individual races.
Two independents in Kaohsiung City who had polled very high
prior to the election both lost. Independent incumbent LY
member Su Ying-kuei, a former TSU legislator who was expelled
from the TSU a year ago for accusing colleagues of
corruption, had made a strong impression as a "clean
political reformer" and made a strong showing in pre-election
public opinion polls in Kaohsiung's northern district.
However, on election day he came in eighth, with less than
half the votes needed to win one of that district's six
seats. In Kaohsiung's southern district, popular television
talkshow hostess, Cheng Li-wen, had likewise polled well
among her district's 11 candidates, only to come in seventh
on election day, far short of winning one of that district's
five seats. The failure of the two independents was widely
seen as a confirmation of conventional wisdom that party
backing is critical to mobilizing the vote, particularly in
elections with low voter turnout. In the cases of both Su
and Cheng, large numbers of younger voters and moderate
swing-voters, who were among their strongest supporters,
apparently sat out the election.


4. (C) By contrast, leading Non-partisan Solidarity Union
(NPSU) candidates in Penghu (incumbent Lin Bin-kun) and
Pingtung (incumbent Tsai Hao) Counties both won easily.
Unlike the independents in Kaohsiung City, Lin and Tsai are
long-standing local political figures with deep pockets and
well-developed political networks. Both are widely believed
to have links to organized crime organizations and have been
linked to corruption scandals.

PFP Candidates With Surprise Wins in the Deep Green South
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5. (C) The PFP did surprisingly well in Southern Taiwan, the
traditional base of the Pan-Green. PFP wins, however, appear
more a reflection of individual candidate appeal and of
better nomination strategy, than an indicator that the South
is becoming less "Green." In Tainan City, PFP candidate Kao
Si-po surprised most observers with a strong win in one of
Taiwan's "Greenest" cities. Kao, the 37-year-old son of KMT
at-large legislator Kao Yu-jen, ran an unorthodox campaign
that downplayed his PFP affiliation and targeted young people
with activist campaign events replete with pop music.
Despite the low voter turnout, especially among young people,
Kao's approach paid off in his third-place finish. More
surprisingly, Kao managed to win without doing what the KMT
most feared -- undermining the two KMT candidates in the
race. While the KMT candidates also won, Kao's strong finish
pushed the sole TSU candidate to seventh among those vying
for Tainan's six LY seats. Kao benefitted from being the
only PFP candidate; in 2001 the PFP had split its votes
between two candidates, both of whom just missed winning.
Kao also likely benefitted from his family connections --
besides being the son of an old guard KMT figure, Kao is also
married to Jessica Chou, a key aide to Taipei Mayor Ma
Ying-jeou, and his sister is married to Taoyuan's KMT
Magistrate, Chu Li-lun.


6. (C) The PFP also did well in Kaohsiung City, where its
two candidates, both seen as competitive but falling behind
in late public opinion polls, won convincingly. In
Kaohsiung's northern district, PFP Policy Director, Chang
Hsien-yao, won easily despite widespread criticism that he
was a "carpetbagger" who moved to Kaohsiung only to run in
the LY race. As in Tainan City, Chang benefited from an
improved PFP strategy in Kaohsiung over that of 2001, when
the PFP had spread its votes evenly in Kaohsiung's northern
district, home to a large number of retired military, among
three candidates. In Kaohsiung's southern district, the sole
PFP candidate, Chou-yi, also easily won re-election, despite
a poor showing in pre-election polls and a poor image
stemming from his involvement in violent protests following
the March 2004 presidential election. Both Pan-Blue and
Pan-Green officials had told AIT/K before the election that
Chou-yi had arranged massive vote buying through local
gambling syndicates, but it remains unclear whether the
allegations are true.

Pan-Green Vote Allocation Uneven; TSU Takes the Hits
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Publicly announced Pan-Green efforts to allocate
votes among candidates in Southern Taiwan proved highly
uneven, with TSU candidates suffering in most cases. In
Kaohsiung's Northern District, vote allocation between three
DPP and one TSU candidate apparently worked, with all four
being elected, despite predictions that the TSU candidate
would lose. In Kaohsiung's southern district, however, it
appears so many votes shifted to a DPP candidate, Huang
Chao-hui, identified before the election as struggling, that
he ended up garnering so many votes that another DPP
incumbent, Tang Jin-chuan, unexpectedly lost. In Kaohsiung
County, DPP vote allocation helped ensure all five of its
candidates won re-election. However, the DPP had refused to
share vote allocation with the TSU, arguing -- correctly as
it turned out -- that the TSU should have nominated only one
candidate instead of two. As a result, both candidates lost
in a surprise setback for the TSU.

DPP Luck Holds Seats in Chen's Home County
--------------


8. (C) On a straight vote in Tainan County, the DPP would
have lost one seat had it not been for election rules
requiring a female winner in districts of a certain size.
While four of the DPP's five candidates in Tainan won easily,
the fifth, Ye Yi-jin, lost by 800 votes to a KMT candidate,
Guo Tian-cai. However, since none of the other four DPP, two
KMT and one independent winning candidates were women, Guo
was skipped over and the final of Tainan County's eight LY
seats was awarded to the DPP's Ye.

Comment: Outcome in the South Not a Referendum on Policy
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Despite widespread media debate as to what the
election outcome says about Taiwan voters' views of the Chen
Administration, few of our interlocutors saw the LY election
in "national" terms. Instead, local party officials
emphasized to AIT/K that each district and each candidate
presented a different set of dynamics, with party affiliation
only significant in terms of access to resources and voter
mobilization. Voter allocation, which many had expected to
be key to either side's victory, proved to be highly uneven
and unpredictable. Overall, the only factor that all of our
interlocutors agreed was decisive was voter turnout. The
even-lower-than-expected 59 percent turnout seemed to leave
all parties' strategies in a mess, with none particularly
satisfied that the election had played out the way it had
expected. Overall, the results in the South were consistent
with expectations that neither side would pick up seats.
However, within the individual districts, each party will be
spending time trying to figure out what happened and why.

Forden
PAAL