LY ELECTION PREVIEW: NORTH EASTERN TAIWAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003414

SIPDIS

STATE PASS AIT/W

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: NORTH EASTERN TAIWAN


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director DAVID Keegan; Reasons: 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) Summary: Keelung and Ilan counties, while at odds
politically, both look to be equally predictable in the
December legislative Yuan (LY) elections. Keelung is about
60 percent Pan-Blue and has five candidates vying for three
seats. There are only four candidates running for three
seats in the Green-stronghold of Ilan. There is little
energy in the campaigns in either district, with voter
turn-out expected to be lower than in the 2001 LY elections.
In Keelung, two of the three seats will likely go Pan-Blue,
with the KMT and People First Party (PFP) splitting the seats
and the third seat going to the DPP. There is, however, some
concern in the Pan-Blue camp that voters may throw too much
support behind one of the candidates and allow a Taiwan
Solidarity Union (TSU) dark-horse to slip past the post. In
Ilan, early polls suggest that the DPP will grab two seats
and the KMT will get the remaining seat. The Pan-Blue in
theory have enough votes to evenly split the vote between the
KMT and PFP candidates and pick up two seats, but both sides
think this is a long shot since the DPP has traditionally
been better at this game and the KMT candidate's campaign
strategy is focused on achieving victory for himself without
concern for the PFP's prospects. End summary.

Keelung County: Still Blue
--------------


2. (C) Keelung County (pop. 385,000) has three LY seats up
for grabs in December. A total of five candidates registered
by the October 12 deadline, but only three of those
candidates are being taken seriously. According to the local
KMT, PFP, and DPP organizations, Keelung is Pan-Blue
territory with about 60 percent of voter support for the
opposition. Voter turn-out is expected to reach around 60-65
percent based on past precedent. Both sides have nominated
two candidates each, but the TSU's Wang Tung-hui is
struggling because his multiple party switches -- from KMT,
to the DPP, and now the TSU -- has weakened his credibility
among Keelung voters. Both sides say the independent
candidate Lu Mei-lung, is not a factor, since it is hard to
win in Keelung without party support. According to Keelung
City Mayor Hsu Tsai-hi, the county was hit hard by the recent
economic downturn, and voters will be looking for candidates
that can use their party's weight in the LY to bring in money
from the central government to develop Keelung's port and
improve the area's infrastructure.

Pan-Blue: Divide and Conquer
--------------


3. (C) Keelung's KMT Chairman, Li Poi-yuan, is confident the
KMT and PFP candidates will win seats. KMT candidate Hsu
Shao-ping is an incumbent LY member and well-known to voters.
However, Li did express concern that the PFP candidate,
Hsieh Kuo-liang, could steal away too many votes from the
KMT, because of his family connections in Keelung, and give
the Pan-Green an opening to win two seats. Hsieh at 29 with
a Masters degree from MIT, has a clean image, family wealth,
and provides a fresh face in Keelung politics. While he may
be new to Keelung politics, his family is not; both his
father and grandfather were prominent Keelung KMT members.
He is running on the slogan of "youth, professionalism,
creativity, and technology." Keelung PFP Chairman Yu
Cheng-chen, also expressed concern about the voters taking
overly supporting one of the candidates and like the KMT, is
trying to ensure that voters support the candidates evenly.
But Yu admitted that this is hard to control. Yu said the
main issues the PFP are focusing on are: "Chen Shui-bian's
dictatorship" and "Taiwan is finished" if the Pan-Green
achieves a majority in the LY. Both Li and Yu told AIT that
at this early stage in the election, they are confident they
can garner a fairly even split and allow both candidates to
win seats for Pan-Blue.

DPP Expecting Final Seat
--------------


4. (C) Keelung DPP Chairman, Shih Shih-ming, told AIT he is
certain both the DPP, with incumbent candidate Wang To, and
the KMT will each win one seat. Shih said that the question
remains who will pick up the third and final seat.
Privately, Shih told AIT that the PFP has a better chance
than the TSU of picking of the last seat. Shih said the PFP
candidate can win if he gets some of the KMT votes and uses
his family connections. Shih expressed only slight concern
that the TSU may take away some votes from their candidate.
Shih admitted the DPP's relationship with the TSU candidate
is not close and that they are not planning to cooperate in
Keelung. The DPP's primary slogan is to "seize the majority
in the LY to end the chaos."

Ilan County: True Green
--------------


5. (C) Ilan County (pop. 453,000),on the northeast coast of
Taiwan has only three seats in the LY. Since the last LY
elections in 2001, it lost one seat due to its declining
population. This year, the mood appears to be sedate with
only four candidates running down from the ten who ran for
four seats in 2001. Still, both sides estimate that each
candidate will likely spend about $240,000 to $300,000
(NT$8-10 million) on the campaign. Ilan has traditionally
been a Pan-Green stronghold with more than 50 percent of the
population supporting Pan-Green candidates. Voter turn-out
is expected to be around 60 to possibly 65 percent, lower
than the 71 percent voter turn-out in 2001. Both sides have
nominated two candidates and the two DPP candidates are
expected to win seats. The final seat is expected to go to
the KMT candidate, who is running ahead of the DPP first
local polls. The incumbent PFP candidate is a distant fourth
and is expected to lose her seat. The DPP has been making a
campaign issue of the KMT's assets since the KMT has two
large properties in Ilan.

DPP Running as a Team
--------------


6. (C) Ilan County DPP Chairman, Chen Ou-po, told AIT that
their main focus is to get the two DPP candidates elected by
splitting the vote (peipiao). Both candidates, Chang
Chuan-tien and Chen Chin-te, are incumbents and are running
as a team. The two always appear together at campaign
rallies. DPP Ilan County Council Deputy Speaker Chen
Wen-chang remarked to AIT that the DPP has never had to worry
about splitting votes in Ilan before, but they might have to
for this election since there are only 3 seats now.
According to Chen, the DPP does not have a set approach to
divide the votes yet, but they are considering a variety of
measures including having families split their votes among
the two candidates. DPP County Chairman Chen said the DPP is
getting organizational and personnel support from DPP party
central, but no funding. Chen remarked that he is most
worried that one candidate will be too selfish and try to
take too many voters, which could give the PFP a chance. But
he quickly stated that this is not a major concern at this
point.

KMT Ahead, Won't Share Votes
--------------


7. (C) The KMT's main strategy is to make certain they don't
lose this year. Their candidate, Chen Chien-jung, who serves
as the Ilan County KMT Chairman, was number one in opinion
polls prior to the 2001 LY election and lost because voters
shifted their votes to other Pan-Blue candidates. According
to the KMT's Ilan County Headquarters Director, Chen
Ming-chang, KMT candidate Chen is again ahead in the polls,
but is taking nothing for granted this time. For this
reason, the KMT is looking to solidify their traditional
support base and will do nothing to help the PFP. Overall,
Chen remarked that he is confident the KMT will win because
their candidate is popular in Ilan, has name recognition from
the last election, and has a good connection with the voters.
Chen told AIT that they expect some Pan-Blue voters to
support the PFP, but recent polls say the PFP incumbent,
Cheng Mei-lan, is running at only 5 percent. Chen bluntly
remarked that Cheng should not be running since there is no
room for the PFP in Ilan and claimed that she was elected by
accident last time. He said it would take a "miracle" for
Cheng win again. Chen said one concern is the DPP making the
KMT's property assets in Ilan a campaign issue. Chen also
accused the DPP of vote buying, but admitted he has no
evidence of this.

PFP Not Much Hope, But a Noble Candidate
--------------


8. (C) Incumbent PFP candidate Cheng admits she has a long
road ahead and not much of a chance. She told AIT she is not
just running for herself, but to give the voters another
choice and help the Pan-Blue cause. Cheng said that she has
done a lot for the residents of Ilan, particularly for the
women, and believes she should offer them a choice since she
is the only female candidate. Cheng also said she believes
that her running will greatly increase Pan-Blue voter turn
out in Ilan and help the Pan-Blue coalition gain or maintain
an additional seat on the proportional list. While admitting
that she faces an uphill battle, Cheng asserted that she has
a chance in this campaign if she can peel off some KMT
voters. She calculates she will get about 38,000 votes on
her own and if she can get 20,000 KMT votes, she can win.
Cheng said that this would still leave the KMT candidate Chen
with more than enough votes (about 70,000) to win and the
Pan-Blue could get two seats from Ilan. But Cheng lamented
that Chen will not give her any votes because of what
happened during the last election so she must appeal to the
voters themselves to support her.

Comment: Voters Tired, Not Interested in National Issues
-------------- --------------


9. (C) While it is still early in the campaign, the
situation in both Keelung and Ilan appears to be predicable,
barring any major developments or scandals. Both sides
expect the Pan-Blue to win two seats in Keelung and one seat
in Ilan and the Pan-Green to win one seat in Keelung and two
seats in Ilan. The central party organizations seem to agree
since candidates in both counties are not receiving any
financial support and are relying on local fundraising
efforts or their own personal wealth for funds. The
candidates do expect to have prominent party leaders come
campaign and lead rallies, but this is likely due more to the
two district's proximity to Taipei rather than their
importance to the campaign. National issues are not at the
forefront of the this campaign, and the voters seem tired of
politics after the presidential election earlier this year.
Keelung City Mayor Yu remarked that "the voters don't care
about the issues" while in Ilan, Deputy Speaker Chen said the
climate has turned "cold" for the LY elections.
PAAL