DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES # 21: DOMINICAN SUPREME

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 000901 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR WHA/CAR (MCISAAC),WHA/OAS (IRVING),DRL NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON LABOR FOR ILAB TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV DR SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES # 21: DOMINICAN SUPREME COURT DECLINES ADVANCE REVIEW OF ELECTION BILL REF: SANTO DOMINGO 00630 ¶1. (SBU) This is cable number 21 in our series on the Dominican Presidential Elections. Dominican Supreme Court Declines Advance Review of Election Bill The tedious, messy and probably ultimately irrelevant initiative to pass a "slogan law" (ley de lemas) continued on February 9 as the Dominican Supreme Court advised the Senate that it would not provide an advisory opinion on the constitutionality of the bill. Senate President Jesus Vasquez had sought advice from the Supreme Court and the Elections Board, then formally submitted the controversial draft law to the Court for advice on constitutionality. A February 6 brief from the Attorney General's office supported the bill and one jointly submitted by 10 NGOs opposed it. Congress has never before asked for Supreme Court advice on constitutionality prior to legislative approval of a proposal. Rather than set a precedent which could lead to a review of every bill prior to passage, the Court advised that it could not act on a text that did not have the status of law. The Senate lost no time, moving the bill through two readings, approving it with minor changes on February 10 by a vote of 17-5 (the support was not particularly impressive and there were 7 Senators absent, including the single PLD Senator). House President Pacheco told poloff on Feb 11 that the draft is now with the lower house for the required two readings and vote, desired by the President's party prior to the February 13 expiration of the current special session. Last time, action in the House was frustrated when enough representatives walked out to leave the chamber without the requisite quorum. Our political contacts cynically expect the measure will pass the House with several bought votes providing the margin. If the proposal is passed by Congress President Mejia would be able to submit the law for Court consideration after passage (following the January 2002 precedent in which Mejia sought and obtained nullification of a legislative effort to convene a constitutional convention). He has told jouralists he will seek Supreme Court advice and he told the Ambassador last week that he will proceed strictly according to the Constitution. In any case, if the bill does become law, various NGOs have promised to take the issue to the Supreme Court. The Court's decision is both pragmatic and defensive. Justices decline advance comfort to legislators intent on changing at least some of the rules of the electoral game and they decline to open their docket to the job of "pre-clearance" of any number of future legislative proposals. The Court remains, for the moment, above accusations of political influence, unlike the Electoral Board (JCE). With this action the Court sets a precedent further defining the scope of its duties. Even so, by Monday morning it may be facing the unpalatable task of examining at presidential request approximately the same text provided by Senate President Vasquez. Sound and Fury, Signifying (Probably) Nothing - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - In the last analysis, we expect that the "ley de lemas" effort will have little effect on the eventual outcome of the elections. It is a PRD holding action, a belated effort to keep the President's various rivals inside the tent. If it passes and is sustained by the Supreme Court, the Elections Board will have some messy logistics before it, revising its procedures and dealing with registering some last-minute PRD presidential hopefuls. We do not see any of them outpolling Mejia in May. If the Court were to allow the dubious mechanism of cumulation of votes by party as the criterion for determining contenders for the second round, its impartiality would be questioned and it would lose a good deal of prestige. The practical question at that point would be whether the PRSC's Eduardo Estrella, alone, could out-point an array of PRD candidates, including Mejia. Our read right now is that he could not, because he is likely to trail Mejia in any case, probably with less than 10 percent of votes cast. ¶2. (U) Drafted by Angela Kerwin, Michael Meigs. HERTELL