DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #19: OPENING OF THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 000630 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR WHA AND DRL NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON LABOR FOR ILAB TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2014 TAGS: PGOV DR SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTIONS #19: OPENING OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN REF: A. (A) SANTO DOMINGO 490 ¶B. (B) SANTO DOMINGO 537 ¶C. (C) SANTO DOMINGO 414 ¶D. (D) SANTO DOMINGO 355 ¶1. (C) Following is number 18 in our series on the Dominican elections. OPENING OF THE DOMINICAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN PRD - Mejia brings it home (U) A nationwide work stoppage January 28-29 to protest economic conditions and President Mejia's policies (Refs A-B) has only briefly interrupted the accelerating presidential election campaign. President Mejia continues with characteristic tenacity his drive to become the ruling PRD's candidate for re-election. An easy victor in a party primary in which he was the only serious candidate (Ref C),he now expects to be formally nominated by a PRD "convention of delegates" on January 31. That convention will go ahead as scheduled, according to former president (1982-86) Salvador Jorge Blanco, spokesman for the organizing committee, and the President's legal adviser Guido Gomez Mazara. (C) Four PRD dissident candidates including Vice President Milagros Ortiz-Bosch and Tourism Secretary Rafael "Fello" Subervi plan to boycott the convention as they did the primary. Subervi criticized Jorge Blanco for "dividing the PRD" by calling the convention. Ortiz-Bosch denied reports that she had dropped out of the race (Ref A) and said she would stay the course. A close adviser to Subervi told us the convention might remove PRD president Hatuey De Camps -- who fiercely opposes Mejia's re-election bid -- and elect President Mejia to the job. Subervi, the PRD secretary general, might also be replaced. (SBU) Mainline PRD leaders, driven mainly by President Mejia's PPH faction, pushed ahead with a controversial proposed change to the election law (Ref D) as a strategem to bring the dissidents back into the fold. Despite public demonstrations against it and the PRD failure on January 15 to get a quorum in the House of Representatives, the so-called "law of the preferential presidential vote" (aka "law of slogans" or "ley de lemas") looks like it's on its way to passage. Ortiz-Bosch and Subervi, according to our contacts, hope the PRD convention will leave open the door to nominating them as additional presidential candidates in the event the election bill passes into law. (C) The Senate approved the draft law on the first reading, January 27. Senate President Jesus Vasquez Martinez and Chamber of Deputies President Alfredo Pacheco have both said they would seek civil society opinions before final approval. Both have expressed reservations about whether the bill is constitutional -- Pacheco (protect) told us flatly that it is not -- but have indicated they will let discussion go forward. Once the measure is passed it will go to the Supreme Court for constitutional review before the President will sign. Experts in civil society remain opposed to it. President of the Central Electoral Board (JCE) Luis Arias predicted that the measure, if passed, would facilitate fraud at the polls. And In This Corner, Leonel (U) Leonel Fernandez capitalized on his front-runner position, leading a "march" through low income neighborhoods of Santo Domingo on January 26. Thousands of participants filled streets along the route with bright purple PLD flags and pictures of the candidate, in a timely pre-carnival atmosphere. Leonel grabbed headlines by accusing President Mejia of trying to ram through the electoral law revision to enable his own re-election and establish a "dictatorship" -- a hot-button reference to the country's long history of leaders who changed the election rules to keep themselves in power. Fernandez supported the upcoming two-day national work stoppage "against the government that has so mistreated the people," and urged protesters to be peaceful. He hammered away at his campaign theme: "Because of the irresponsibility and ineptitude of the present government,...the Dominican Republic is in the worst crisis in its history." (C) A political adviser to Mejia told us police reports estimated the number of marchers at 40,000 - 60,000, judging from the number of buses that brought them into the city. According to the adviser, the President downplayed the event, commenting that if those were all the PLD followers Leonel could mobilize by paying "millions" for their transportation, food, lodging, and rum, then Hipolito and the mass-membership PRD could beat them handily. Elections Board Formally Invites Observers (U) Meanwhile, on January 29 the Central Electoral Board (JCE) announced that it had invited the UN, the OAS, IFES, NDI, CAPEL and regional organizations of election commissions to observe the presidential election process, beginning well in advance of May 16 if they desired. The announcement had been long expected. The timing of it did little to bolster the public's weak confidence in the impartiality of a JCE that is widely viewed as packed with judges from the ruling PRD. (SBU) NOTE: The Ley de Lemas: The proposal would allow up to five presidential candidates from the same party to compete in the general election on May 16; if no candidate wins an absolute majority, then the leading candidates of the two most-voted parties would enter a second round 45 days later. In our opinion this disposition is contrary to Article 90 of the Constitution, which stipulates that President and Vice President are elected by direct vote. ¶2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. HERTELL