DOMINICAN TRANSITION #5: PACT BECOMES FACT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTO DOMINGO 003906 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, EB/OMA;NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON; TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA;USDOC FOR 3322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION; USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH;DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI; SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN DR SP SUBJECT: DOMINICAN TRANSITION #5: PACT BECOMES FACT ¶1. (SBU) This no. 5 in our series on the transition to a new presidential administration in the Dominican Republic. (SBU) Dominican Transition: Pact Becomes Fact The transition teams really are cooperating. The government is likely to deliver a PLD-shaped tax reform to Congress by the target date of July 15. Insistent efforts of the Ambassador and Embassy officers helped set the process in motion and keep it going. It was tempting on June 22 to say that we,d all seen this movie before: Hipolito Mejia and Leonel Fernandez accompanied by a hovering Monsignor Agripino Nunez as they signed a document promising good behavior and respect for carefully articulated rules of the game. The last time the two men were together was in September 2003 when they signed a similar set of promises for the presidential campaign, recognizing the newest avatar of the civil-society "Elections Monitoring Group" ("Comision de Seguimiento"). And then in February of 2004, after ugly confrontations left some party followers dead in the street, the Monsignor brought together campaign party chairmen for a "non-violence pact." In a country with electoral traditions and institutions as fragile as those of the Dominican Republic, this approach has some sense. From his perch as rector of the catholic university PUCMM -- and even more as the perpetuum mobile of Dominican political arbitration -- Monsignor Nunez has the authority and credibility to insist on right conduct. As before, party representatives negotiated the text, so their principals could come together just long enough for a chilly handshake and a signature. (Our impression is that the chill is from Mejia; Fernandez seems to wish that the President would accept at least a pat on the shoulder.) Spain,s Felipe Gonzalez was the keynote speaker for the day, recycling socialist international themes about responsible government in his morning presentation before the two leaders, the transition teams, and the assembled Congress. Unacknowledged but fundamental to the process was the early engagement of the Ambassador and officers of Embassy Santo 
Domingo to urge cooperation and to carry messages between the two sides. The Ambassador had lengthy private discussions with Fernandez and with Mejia. He invited the PLD transition team for a working lunch that resulted in a full-day seminar at his residence on June 17, bringing 85 PLD members or collaborating experts together with embassy counterparts. The Deputy Chief of Mission and EcoPol staff have systematically worked policymakers on both sides. And It Works The result is that the Mejia-Fernandez pact is working, at least in its most significant engagement -- that concerning Dominican commitments to the International Monetary Fund. The June 22 text sets forward the antecedents and establishes the following pledges: - both sides will maintain communication and furnish best efforts toward resolving the economic crisis; - technicians from both sides, in consultation with the IMF, seek to prepare a tax reform proposal by July 10; - Mejia has already committed to submit the proposal to Congress not later than July 15; - both sides will work with members of Congress to obtain approval of it; - in keeping with the IMF standby, the incoming administration pledges to honor the terms of Central Bank certificates of deposit created to manage monetary policy; - also in keeping with the standby, the sides will coordinate actions to fulfill the pledges made to the Paris Club concerning the renegotiation of debt due in 2004; and - finally, the sides pledge to define and put into practice a plan of reforms for mid-term and long-term sustainability of the electricity sector. Confirming the Entente Financial policymakers for the sides held three extended meetings around the date of the pact. According to Technical Secretary of the Presidency Carlos Despradel, at the first of SIPDIS these the government wanted to talk about conceptual approaches, while, figuratively speaking, the PLD reps had their calculators out and were ready to run the numbers on a government proposal that did not yet exist. (Economist Andy Dauhajre, Jr., had drawn up an analysis and a draft for legislation, but the PRD was not ready to embrace it -- in fact, Despradel had to get the summary from the PLD,s Daniel Toribio.) After the last of these three meetings, the PLD team appears to have taken on the job, with the assistance of government-employed technicians from the Finance Ministry and Central Bank. The President and President-elect signed their pact on Tuesday. Fernandez departed immediately for meetings in New York. On Friday, June 25, the Deputy Chief of Mission and EcoPol counselor attended a meeting at the Presidential Palace, where Despradel and Central Bank Governor Lois Malkun outlined difficulties in getting $100 million from private sector sources as a complement to the Paris Club official creditors, rescheduling (see separate report on SIPRNET). Sitting side by side with them, across the table from the Spanish ambassador, the EU ambassador, and the U.S. delegation, was PLD economist Julio Ortega. Despradel and Malkun spoke freely in front of him; Ortega confirmed that he would be seeking policy guidance from Fernandez. All three stressed that the transition teams were working closely together. Confidence At this point, strengthening confidence is the key to getting the Dominican Republic through its three-month transition still with the prospect of achieving some stability. This was the principal aim of the June 22 pact. It seems to be working for now. Analysts in the international capital markets are making some cautiously optimistic noises, including about the prospect of seeing payment on the sovereign bond coupon due July 27. Last week Malkun showed us with satisfaction the virtually flat graph for the exchange rate, and since that time the rate has subsided gradually from 48 toward 45 pesos to the dollar. The press earnestly reads Fernandez,s trips to developed countries -- currently to Europe -- as a search for international investors. Meanwhile, widespread intermittent electricity blackouts are a reminder that smoke and mirrors are not sufficient for recovery, especially when that vital sector is completely decapitalized (the PLD,s Ortega commented to us, "The crisis already occurred in that sector, three months ago; now we,re trying to identify a way out"). Getting a Renewed Standby PLD senior officials Daniel Toribio and Temistocles Montas are in Washington today, July 1, for first formal PLD contacts with decision-makers at the IMF and the U.S. Treasury, among other institutions, to talk about the Paris Club rescheduling. Their comments last week to the DCM suggest that they are thinking about a tax reform package that falls far short of closing the 2004 financing gap, something involving an increase in the value-added tax ("ITBIS," currently at 12 percent with many basic consumer goods exempted). The press is suggesting a 16 percent rate. PLD sources say that they do not -- repeat, not -- intend to propose a significant widening of the application of the tax. Montas spoke of raising "specific taxes" on alcohol and tobacco. PLD commentators say that subsidies on gas and electricity will be continued but readjusted for better targeting of low-income households. As of now, it appears that they have no intention of using Fernandez,s 57 percent mandate to take sweeping, painful austerity measures to achieve early financial stability. The PLD Enigma A major unknown in this is Fernandez himself. The PLD program, though extensive, is intentionally vague. His close collaborators tell us that Fernandez has set up competing advisory committees, so that he can receive the broadest possible range of options. For example, he invited leading stakeholders in various sectors to collaborate to find a consensus of recommendations (for example, a leading dairy industrialist, a milk importer, and a representative of supermarkets); in parallel, he set PLD experts to make recommendations but directed the industry committees not to share results with them. No one is quite sure where the President-elect will come out on any of this, and no one claims to have the slightest idea whom he will name to cabinet posts. The PLD transition to date under Fernandez completely contrasts with the PLD,s historical stereotype of a rigidly doctrinaire mechanism dominated by a politburo. Getting to "Yes" Whatever the shape of the package, the PRD-dominated Congress will have to examine it. Central Bank Governor Lois Malkun says that senators, especially, are unhappy about the admitted necessity of raising taxes, but that if the vote comes during the transition period in keeping with the June 22 pact, they will have some political cover. Elections both for the Senate and the House are less than two years away. Congressional leaders have assured us that legislators understand the urgency and will consider the proposal immediately. House of Representatives chair Alfredo Pacheco told journalists there will be extensive public hearings on the measure. The PLD is concerned that this could mean no vote until after the August 16 inauguration. President Mejia has confirmed several times that he will forward the proposal to Congress for consideration, but will leave implementation to the next government. Once this week he went so far as to say that the proposal would be entirely the work of the incoming authorities, not a consensus document. In effect, Fernandez will have to assume the paternity of the reform. Much More to Do These negotiations within negotiations are driven by the commitment with the IMF to deliver the package to Congress by the end of July. That goal is likely to be achieved. Much more must be discussed, calculated, proposed and agreed before a revised letter of intention can go to the IMF board for approval. Our optimistic estimate is that with good will, luck and guts the new government could get the outlines of an agreement with the Fund by November. ¶2. (U) Drafted by Michael Meigs. ¶3. (U) This report and others in our election and transition series can be read on the SIPRNET at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm along with extensive other current material. HERTELL