DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #52: DEMOCRACY WINS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTO DOMINGO 003056

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA AND DRL
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON
LABOR FOR ILAN
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WJ
DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI; USSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM DR
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION SERIES #52: DEMOCRACY WINS

REF: SANTO DOMINGO 2968


1. (SBU) Following is number 52 in our series on the
Dominican presidential election:

Democracy Wins
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Voting was calm and orderly across the Dominican Republic
during the 12-hour polling period on May 16, in what many
consider to have been the best-conducted vote in national
history. In the evening, scattered worrisome incidents
suggested that the counting phase might become troubled.
With the benefit of hindsight, the brief but strong evening
remarks on national television by Msgr. Agripino Nunez, head
of the civil society Elections Monitoring, Commission, who
was flanked by several ambassadors (including the U.S.
Ambassador) and the OAS representatives, are viewed as a
defining moment. President Mejia conceded the election early
in the vote count, at 11:40 p.m., and Dominicans everywhere
awoke the next day knowing who had won. The elections are
widely viewed by Dominicans as a success and a source of
pride. Many Dominicans have told us that the USG role was
positive and crucial.

Here are the details:

During the day of voting, Dominican election officials, party
coordinators, and electors cooperated effectively across the
country. In contrast to the heated campaign, May 16 was
characterized by massive, orderly voter turnout and a
relatively smooth, albeit slow, electoral process.

Election day officially began at 6 a.m. as more than 12,000
voting tables opened across the 32 provinces of the Dominican
Republic and in 11 foreign cities with large expatriate
Dominican populations. Observers reported some initial
disorganization and, in isolated cases, late openings due in
part to incomplete election materials. Most voting sites
were relatively organized. International observers, including
50 volunteers from the U.S. Embassy community, found
Dominicans engaged in the process, animated, and generally
cordial to one another.

An early morning altercation between PLD and PRD party
loyalists outside a polling station in Barahona, a
southwestern province, provoked an exchange of gunshots that
left three persons -- criminals with personal conflicts among
themselves -- dead. The incident was the worst stain on the
democratic process. The Central Electoral Board (JCE),in
accordance with law, suspended news programs on several
government-run television channels for blatantly biased
(pro-Mejia) reporting. Later in the day, there were
unconfirmed reports of isolated confrontations.

Dominicans welcomed the presence of some 270 international
observers led by the OAS and IFES delegations, and more than
6500 national observers from Dominican NGO Participacion
Ciudadana. There were few problems with voter rolls and
virtually no attempts to bring campaigning or campaign
material into voting areas. Many sites reported average
turnouts of 60 percent by mid-day and more than 70 percent
when the polls closed at 6 p.m.

First-hand experience matches press reports
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In addition to fielding 50 observers who became accredited to
the OAS Mission, Ambassador Hertell led a bus tour of polling
and other election sites during the day. He was accompanied
by the ambassadors in the Dominican Republic from the
European Community, Canada, and Spain, and by two IFES
observers (Colombian ex-President Pastrana and Judy Black).
The DCM also led a U.S. "information central" from which we
took reports from the OAS-assigned observers, officers posted
at certain critical locations, and newscasts. The
Ambassador,s party was briefed regularly during the day and
evening, and shown copies of the "information central,s" log
of developments. All in all, the ambassadors saw first-hand
in Santo Domingo the display of orderly daytime voting that
the "information central" was hearing about nationwide.
Ambassador Hertell shared his positive reaction with the
press.

Tension rose in the evening
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After the polls closed, tensions rose.

In a few locales, domestic or international observers were
excluded from the vote count.

In addition, although procedures stipulated that each voting
station's election officials and party delegates were to fill
out and sign each vote-count tabulation ("acta"),this did
not always happen. At a number of polling places, especially
at those in Santo Domingo and Santiago, PRD party delegates
refused to sign vote tally sheets carrying the manifest bad
news of a PRD defeat.

Moreover, poor organization, and possibly resistance, at the
134 municipal election boards ("juntas municipales") caused
bottlenecks as election officials sought to deliver and
register the sealed bags containing the paper ballots and
"actas." At "juntas municipales" election officials
discovered many irregularities in documentation and referred
tally sheets to adjudication. Few of the "actas" were being
scanned and transmitted to the JCE. By mid-evening, lines up
to three blocks long were visible at "juntas municipales" in
the capital and elsewhere. Delays were accompanied by
increasing rumors of fraud by government officials. Tempers
were rising.

Finally, embassy volunteers and other observers reported a
handful of mostly unconfirmed reports of intimidation or
confrontation. We heard, for example, that PRD campaign
official Guido Gomez Mazara, formerly legal adviser to Mejia,
was reported to have entered a voting station accompanied by
armed guards who intimidated the persons inside.

Civic action and reaction
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As irregularities were reported, head of the civil society
Elections Monitoring Commission ("Comision de Seguimiento")
Monsignor Agripino Nunez Collado, fearing the worst, called
insistently to persuade the Ambassador and several other
ambassadors to call on JCE President Luis Arias at 9 p.m. to
raise their concerns. The Ambassador, armed with the
"information central,s" news, agreed. He mobilized the
other ambassadors, who met with Nunez and JCE Judge Luis
Arias at the JCE. Arias was aware of the most serious
incidents and said they had been handled by election
officials and the electoral police.

As the group went out to attend a previously scheduled OAS
press conference at the JCE,
Nunez surprised those present by taking the microphone.
Flanked on camera by the U.S., EU, Canadian, and Spanish
ambassadors and by the OAS, he delivered an impromptu
impassioned appeal -- live, on camera -- for the President's
supporters to respect the people,s will as expressed in the
election results. He said, in part:

" . . .The President said, in his last appearance, that
whoever wins, wins; that's the President's word. And I would
invite all of those who are, gentlemen, supporters of the
President to respect that affirmation by the President. Let
no one think about trying to stand in the way of the process.
Remember what happened in 1978 when the administration of
that time tried to avoid acknowledging popular will, (and
remember) the response of the people and of the international
community. That's why I wanted to come here, pro-actively.
I would not wish either for the people to go through bitter
times or for the international community to have to make
reproaches to sectors of our society.

"This country has embraced democracy. And nothing and no one
will be able to obstruct this process. . . . Let no one even
imagine staining this process. . . . Let God enlighten all
Dominicans. Let no one think of perverse ideas, may they
respect as a sacred thing this civic day's work given by the
Dominican public to the politicians, to the observers, to the
national media and to the foreign press that is here to bear
witness. May God help us and illuminate and give strength to
all who have the responsibility of protecting the ballot
boxes in the various polling stations until they can provide
their results to the JCE, which standing above all criticism
has given us an example of patriotism!"

Nunez's vehemence and his reference to the 1978 three-month
election deadlock between then-President Balaguer (PRSC) and
President-elect Antonio Guzman (PRD) stirred passions rather
than calming them. They completely overshadowed the measured,
positive statements subsequently made by OAS Deputy Secretary
General Luigi Einaudi and by IFES delegation head (and former
Colombian president) Andres Pastrana, both of whom praised
the election process.

President Mejia is reported to have been furious at Monsignor
Agripino's appeal. Mejia had already told the Ambassador by
telephone earlier in the evening that he would "do the right
thing" if there were no change in the trend of the earliest
returns (52 percent PLD to 38 percent PRD).

At 9:30 p.m., a Penn, Shoen & Berland exit poll with 56
percent for Fernandez was leaked to CNN, but not carried in
local media. Simultaneously, PLD numbers sent out by e-mail
to party sympathizers showed the same trend. The JCE issued
its first bulletin at 10:40, based on a mere 2.8 percent of
the 12,000 polling stations, showing Fernandez with 54
percent. The Ambassador spoke briefly with President Mejia
by telephone about that time; Mejia again emphasized his
intention to do the right thing and abide by the will of the
people. At 11:40, before the JCE was able to publish any
further preliminary results, Mejia went before television
cameras to acknowledge Fernandez's victory and to offer his
congratulations.

Mejia's action has no precedent in Dominican politics. It is
widely believed to have facilitated the rest of the vote
count and prevented violence and intrusion into the electoral
process. His declaration immediately cut the growing
late-night tension. It stopped diehard PRD members from
their efforts, planned or spontaneous, to draw out the
already long and painful process. By acknowledging defeat,
Hipolito Mejia offered an
unexpected and illuminating example of democratic fair play,
both to his own party and to the rest of those watching. In
the following days, our Dominican contacts, almost without
exception, fairly glowed with pride about the successful
conduct of the national presidential elections.

The U.S. Government in general, and the U.S. Ambassador in
particular, have received constant praise in the past week
from our Dominican contacts and the Dominican public and
press, first for supporting -- both rhetorically and
financially -- free and fair elections and international
observers for them; second, for indicating our support of the
winner of the election, whichever candidate won; and finally,
for our own visible monitoring of the election process,
which, we are told, was both calming and a visible reminder
that the international community would not tolerate
illegitimate leaders. The OAS mission also praised the USG
effort on behalf of free and fair Dominican elections as a
model that works.


2. (U) Drafted by Michael Meigs, Clare Ribando, and Lisa
Kubiske.


3. (U) This report and others in our elections series are
available on the
SIPRNET at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo.
HERTELL