(CORRECTED COPY) DOMINICAN ELECTIONS NO. 28:

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTO DOMINGO 001723 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR WHA AND DRL NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON LABOR FOR ILAB TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV DR SUBJECT: (CORRECTED COPY) DOMINICAN ELECTIONS NO. 28: RUNNING PAST ONE ANOTHER REF: SANTO DOMINGO 0171 ¶1. (SBU) This is the 28th in our series on the Dominican presidential elections: Election Series #28: Running Past One Another: Styles of the Leading Candidates There will almost certainly be no debate between Hipolito Mejia and Leonel Fernandez, even though civic organizations and commentators seized upon the Ambassador's February 25 proposal. Caught by journalists after a ceremony, Mejia said he would "consider" the idea. PLD Secretary General Reynaldo Pared Perez said that Fernandez wouldn,t think of debating someone with less than 20 percent support (spiking Mejia with the very gibe Mejia used in a dismissive reference to "that ex-president with 18 or 20 points" in February 2002). Fernandez, with more than 60 percent in polls since late 2003, has no reason to take the risk of a direct confrontation. The styles of the two candidates are entirely different. And an encounter between Mejia and Fernandez would not be a debate in the usual sense. It would be closer to a verbal mugging of Fernandez than a discussion of substance. The Farmer from Gurabo Hipolito Mejia is caustic, jocular, colloquial and direct. His target is the average Dominican - - farmers, shopkeepers, laborers, and the unemployed. Mejia is smart but not particularly well educated or focused in his discourse. He and his faction of the PRD are strongest outside the cities. Mejia campaigns by going to the provinces to deliver public works - - in late 2003 he showed the Ambassador a thick binder of small projects stopped for lack of funds. The December and January disbursements from the InterAmerican Development Bank and World Bank provided the money for the administration to finish many of these, at least to a point where they could be inaugurated. At these events Mejia appears in the crowds, outdoors, wearing a guayabera shirt and often a straw hat, looking very much like a farmer. Mejia has largely united the party after the fights over re-election and leadership, and he is playing to place strongly enough to deprive Fernandez of a majority and push the election into a second round. Mejia,s language is vigorous and colorful - - so remarkable that it is the subject to a new academic study: "The Colloquial Speech of Hipolito Mejia: Study of an Idiolect." Most of the 248-page book is devoted to vocabulary and expressions from Mejia,s public utterances, analyzed in context, meaning, significance and style. The listing begins in 1999 with a transcription of candidate Mejia,s own explanation of the colloquialism, "I,ve got him by the pichirri": "The pichirri is the part, the spot where you grab a hen or a rooster - - if you press on it there, you dominate it entirely, so then, referring to a candidate like him (the PLD,s Danilo Medina) who is not the only one out there, since Dr. Balaguer is there and you can,t grab him by the pichirri, since he,s a smart man - - definitely though, as for this gentleman (Medina),I have him by the pichirri, because he can,t budge." (An anecdote not in the book: when journalists threw the expression at Fernandez, who grew up in New York, they got a blank look: "What is a pichirri?") Mejia,s invective has often been directed at Fernandez and at his PLD "comesolos" (selfish, exclusive enjoyers of privilege who dine alone). Mejia aggressively projects tubby manliness (hombria) and dismisses Fernandez as ineffectual and even effeminate. His style, says one editor, is the "politics of cockfighting, of machos who impose themselves at any cost, with lethal barbs and spurs." Last October after an interview with international news channel Univisin, the cameras, still rolling, caught Mejia making crude jokes about Fernandez,s sexuality. And Mejia hammers away, calling the PLD privileged moneyed "little gentlemen" (senoritos) out to exploit the country for themselves. Mejia now appears every Sunday evening on the interview program "Una Vez a la Semana"8 on a government channel, expostulating in a style summarized on March 15 by El Caribe newspaper: "Once again he slammed into speculators and his PLD opponent Leonel Fernandez, reminding viewers that Fernandez worked and got paid by one of the banks that failed in the financial sector. In the style customary for his public comments, the President,s declarations leaped from one theme to another without stopping to explain details." In short, Mejia is pugnacious, unpredictable and emotive, a larger than life caricature of the common Dominican man -- in media terms, "hot." The Foundation Man Leonel Fernandez raises excitement at meetings across the country but more for his aura of the coming conqueror than for his personal style or presence. Since leaving office in 2000 Fernandez has presided over the Global Foundation for Economic Development (see www.funglode.org),a vehicle endowed for him by wealthy supporters. He has traveled widely and participated in many ceremonial and academic events in the United States and in Europe. Fernandez is the man in the suit, with a thoughtful look on his face and a grimace of concern at the plight of the country. The PLD is marketing Fernandez with lots of display media ("Leonel is coming back!" with smiling picture, purple background evoking the PLD colors and a Dominican flag - - used so frequently that PRD grumblers write about inappropriate exploitation of national symbols). This past week the PLD was running an hour-long docu-program on national television at least once a day. Fernandez is sitting on the verandah of a clearly upper class residence, conducting "town meeting" style Qs and As with twenty or so concerned Dominicans. The scene could be in Spain, except for the Dominican accents - - all the attentive participants, men and women, are white professionals in a mixed-race population. The only glimpse of a dark face is that of a waiter in a white jacket disappearing through a doorway. Fernandez, the most criollo-looking one on screen, speaks quietly, fluently and in polysyllables of re-establishing business confidence to attract flight capital back to the country, tax reform, the quasi-fiscal deficit, debt renegotiation, seeking international assistance for Haiti, moving toward higher value-added in manufacturing, enforcing migration laws, using the U.S. "third border" initiative to exploit the country,s strategic position, the curative and preventive functions of national health policy, strengthening the judiciary, re-privatization of electricity distribution companies, investing in public works, stabilizing the exchange rate, and the need for quality leadership, vision, and a frank dialogue on the medium and long term. In other words, Fernandez is a pat, well-spoken policy wonk, cozy with the well off. He mentions Mejia,s administration almost with regret, with passing comments about "irresponsible" fiscal policy, media manipulation and "confusion" in leadership. Fernandez has no surprising ideas but he doesn,t make any clearly unachievable promises, either. In media terms his is a "cool" presence. The docu-program breaks three times to present the same two very slick one-minute political ads. The first shows cartoonish vignettes of economic distress with live actors and special effects, with close-ups of Leonel showing silent concern. The second is a lively basketball game where the white-jerseyed "Nation" is losing badly to the black-jerseyed "Crisis" team, which is using fouls and intimidation - - until Leonel comes striding into the gym (assured, contained and in a suit) to coach the "Nation" back to victory. This is a funny, fast and appealing spot - - and on screen the cheering fans, loving it, actually look Dominican. Neither candidate has yet published a campaign platform. The Puzzle of the Polls Polls in October, January and February consistently showed Fernandez with better than 60 percent of the prospective vote. In our view those votes are not solidly Leonel,s - - many of them are votes for "anything but this current economic misery." Fernandez will need to work hard to keep a convincing lead, since Mejia now has sufficient international funding to keep the electricity sector going and to splash out modest but numerous public works projects. Mejia is directing all his effort to winning back the man in the street and the family in the countryside, the traditional supporters of the PRD. On March 14 Mejia asserted that the PRD had regained the lead in 20 of 22 provinces. If the election goes to a second round, Mejia will have an additional 45 days to assemble a coalition -- probably including elements of the third big party, the PRSC. At this point it looks like about an even chance for Leonel to win outright on May 16. He has not been very effective or directed in communicating the message that even for the PRD,s base he offers better hopes than Mejia does. Leonel hasn,t yet got Mejia by the pichirri. ¶2. (U) Drafted by Michael Meigs. ¶3. (U) This report and the rest of our elections series are available on our SIPRNET site http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ along with other material. KUBISKE