SOMALIA PEACE PROCESS - ITALIANS SEEK US SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 001923

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR AF AND IO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL SO IT UN
SUBJECT: SOMALIA PEACE PROCESS - ITALIANS SEEK US SUPPORT

REF: NAIROBI 01752

Classified By: Pol M/C Tom Countryman for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Bruno Cabras, MFA Director General for Sub-Saharan
Africa, requested a meeting with Pol M/C to discuss EU
actions on and request US assistance for the Somalia National
Reconciliation Conference. Cabras stressed that the peace
process must result in a minimal level of stability and
governance. He stated that negotiations are at a "make-it or
break-it point" and that the EU is working hard to ensure a
positive outcome by issuing a EU declaration (expected May
18) and demarching IGAD capitals in preparation for the May
20 meeting. Cabras requested that the US support these
efforts by sending a visible signal of interest and
encouragement to IGAD members, encouraging Ethiopia to be
cooperative and consistent, and convincing the UN to support
the African Union (AU) in its efforts to provide
observers/peacekeepers and enforce the UN arms embargo.
Cabras focused on the need for political and diplomatic
support and was cautiously optimistic that the current
negotiations could result in a peace agreement and a
sustainable cessation of hostilities, especially if
"encouragement" from the US and the UN is perceived by the
parties. He expressed concern that if there are no positive
results then the situation could deteriorate even further and
present a serious security concern in the region. End
Summary.


Italian/EU Role
--------------


2. (C) Due to Italian efforts, Cabras stated that there is
increasing interest among EU countries, especially the UK,
Ireland, France, Denmark and Sweden in ensuring a successful
outcome to the peace process. In addition to issuing a
declaration in Brussels and Dublin (expected May 18),Cabras
stated that the EU countries are working to develop points to
help guide the May 20 negotiations and resolve the main
issues concerning the selection of the transitional assembly
members and powersharing agreements. Cabras stressed that
these issues must be resolved in order to ensure a minimal
level of stability and governance.


3. (C) Once a peace agreement and a cessation of hostilities
are achieved, the EU and the international community can
begin to provide humanitarian and development assistance.
Cabras mentioned that Italy would host a donor's conference
in Rome and that the EC has funds, previously earmarked for
Somalia, that will be available if an agreement is reached.


US Support
--------------


4. (C) Cabras stated that US support is crucial to making the
peace process succeed. He requested US support in three
areas. First, that the US exhibit a greater sense of interest
in and encouragement for the process by visibly sending a
signal of support to IGAD members prior to the May 20
meeting. Cabras believes that a US message of support coupled
with the EU declaration and demarches in IGAD capitals will
show a degree of international interest and help move the
process forward.


5. (C) Second, that the US encourage and reassure the
Ethiopians that it is in their best interest to have the
peace process succeed and that their security concerns are
well known and will be taken into consideration. Cabras
commented that the Ethiopians had returned to the IGAD
Facilitation Committee, appeared to have put aside their
differences with Djibouti and participated positively in the
May 6 meeting. He stressed that for the process to succeed
the Ethiopians must continue to be cooperative participants.


6. (C) Third, Cabras requested US help in convincing the UN
to take on a more proactive role by supporting the steps
achieved in Nairobi and by providing support to the AU's
peacekeeping project. Specifically, Cabras felt the UN could:
provide the AU support with its feasibility study for
peacekeeping; provide professional knowledge and experience
in disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) and

monitoring; provide expertise in institutional and capacity
building; assist with the proper channeling of Somali
diaspora interests; and more actively enforce the UN arms
embargo.


Security
--------------


7. (C) Cabras expressed concern about immediate and future
security issues stating that if the peace process succeeds
the international community would need to carefully monitor
the subsequent transformation and the new leadership. He
stated that security in Somalia needed to be managed at a
political level and not only through security measures. He
stated that there has been an increase in the presence and
activity of terrorist groups and in the flow of arms into
Somalia. Lastly, he stated that due to the "winner take all"
nature of the process, internal factions could resist the new
leadership and thus lead to a repressive regime. Cabras
stressed that EU, US, UN and international interest and
support are crucial to make the process succeed, to ensure
that agreements are real and respected and to ensure greater
regional and international security.


Action Request
--------------


8. (C) Pol M/C thanked Cabras and assured him that post would
relay his requests to the Department. Post requests guidance
regarding the USG view of the Somalia peace process and
specific responses to Cabras' requests.

Visit Rome's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/rome/index.cf m

SKODON


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2004ROME01923 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL