ITALY: Telecommunications Sector and Internet

UNCLAS ROME 001648

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EB/CIP - TFINTON


COMMERCE FOR NTIA/SPECK
UDOC FOR 4220/MAC/EUR/SED
FCC FOR AGOMEZ AND ATHOMAS
DOJ FOR WILNER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD ECON IT ECIP
SUBJECT: ITALY: Telecommunications Sector and Internet
Market - 2004 Update

SUMMARY
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1. Italy's telecommunications market is highly developed,
liberalized, and mature, particularly in the mobile phone segment.
Limited problems remain in the sector, particularly with
overlapping EU and national laws, and with regional environmental
regulations. Also of some concern is the GOI's continued
involvement in the sector. The GOI owns WIND, the main competitor
to former incumbent Telecom Italia (TI); and still exercises
influence over now fully privatized Telecom Italia. A powerful
Communications Ministry often overshadows the role of the
independent Communications Authority.


2. Telecom Italia is still the dominant telecommunications
company, but its market shares in fixed, mobile, and Internet
services are decreasing. Foreign participation, including U.S., is
primarily in the mobile phone market; WIND's possible
privatization offers a market opportunity for U.S. firms. In the
Internet sector, the number of Internet users is growing; and
high-speed ISDN lines are systematically replacing traditional
fixed lines. Broadband is also rapidly developing. End Summary.

A FULLY LIBERALIZED TELECOM MARKET
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3. Communications Ministry and Communications Authority contacts,
as well as industry representatives, argue that Italy has created
one of the most open and competitive telecom markets in Europe.


4. Our contacts at the Communications Authority provided several
examples of the competitiveness of the Italian market.
Termination costs have decreased over the last five years by about
30 percent, and are expected to possibly fall even further; number
portability is working well, with more than 1.6 million numbers
moved from one carrier to another by the end of 2003; and
interconnection charges (fixed to mobile) are declining and were
in line with the EU average in 2003 (EU average 17.45 cents; Italy
17.47 cents. In 2002, the EU average was 18.92 cents; Italy's was
20.16 cents). Moreover, local loop unbundling is complete;
539,000 lines were "unbundled" at the end of 2003.
(Communications Authority senior staff told us Italy's unbundled
lines are among cheapest in Europe, and forecast that, as
unbundling accelerates, TI and its competitors will increasingly
offer advanced services.) Carrier pre-selection is now popular and
widespread with over 3.5 million users that have opted for carrier
pre-selection by the end of 2003.

A FEW PROBLEMS REMAIN
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5. GOVERNMENT'S ROLE: In recent years, a constant concern has
been over the GOI's involvement in the sector. Although the GOI
sold its residual three percent "golden" shares in Telecom Italia
in late 2002, many industry experts believe that TI is still the
de facto national communications operator, still receives
preferential treatment from the GOI, and that its management
decisions are still influenced by the GOI. The Italian Government
also owns WIND (Italy's second full-service mobile, fixed line,
and Internet - operator) through state-controlled energy
conglomerate ENEL. However, industry representatives' criticism
has been muted recently, as the GOI has largely been "hands-off"
in terms of its involvement with WIND and TI.


6. REGIONAL LAWS: A number of regional governments have passed
restrictive environmental provisions that affect
telecommunications infrastructure. Each of Italy's twenty regions
has, for example, the power to independently establish electronic
magnetic emission limits, which can cause difficulties for
operators trying to develop countrywide strategies. Similarly,
local authorities, at times, have been slow to grant rights-of-way
to land they own to telecom companies interested in laying fiber
cables or erecting necessary infrastructure. Communications
Authority and Communications Ministry officials have downplayed
the problem of rights-of-way, and claimed that Italy's
telecommunications infrastructure is highly developed and already
can support the vast majority of services.


7. BUREAUCRATIC CONFUSION: The murky line of responsibilities
between the Communications Ministry and the Communications
Authority also remains. A communications regulator (similar to


the U.S.'s FCC) was created in 1997 to replace entirely the
Communications Ministry. However, the Berlusconi Government has
not only kept the Ministry intact, but also has strengthened its
role, especially in key areas as licensing authority.

THE TELECOM MARKET IN NUMBERS
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8. Four operators offer mobile services to approximately
55 million subscribers (this includes individuals with multiple
subscriptions),representing a 95 percent penetration rate, and
with a total mobile market valued at 14.5 billion euros. Ninety
percent of subscriptions are through the use of prepaid phone
cards. Through its subsidiary TIM (Telecom Italia Mobile),TI
owns the lion's share of the market, well over 40 percent, but
declining with respect to its 50 percent market share in 2001.
Other mobile operators include WIND, Vodaphone (Verizon is its
partner),and H3G. The latter is the only provider of 3G
services, with approximately 400,000 customers. Although 3G
service has begun, market growth potential remains limited.
Italian consumers are not convinced that the additional services
offered are worth the additional cost. Telecom operators have
seen their overall revenues from mobile phone business growing at
an estimated annual rate of 2.5 percent. While voice still brings
in nearly 85 percent of revenues, data transmission (e.g., text
messaging) and other data applications are rapidly growing.


9. Forty fixed line operators (the vast majority being local
operators providing business networks) service approximately 29
million customers. The number of fixed lines is still growing,
albeit slowly, from 28 million in 2001 to 29 million in 2003. The
fixed line market was valued in 2003 at about 17.2 billion euros.
Fixed line service providers are moving towards greater
specialization with only the largest operators (TI, WIND, Fastweb)
offering across the board services. Voice still provides the
greatest source of revenue (approximately 75 percent),but
Internet and data transmissions are growing rapidly. TI has a 60
percent market share, which is down from its peak share of almost
80 percent in 2001. Traditional PSTN - Public Switched Telephone
Networks - lines are being replaced with ISDN lines. In 2001,
there were 22.2 million PSTN lines and 5.9 million ISDN lines. By
the end of 2003, PSTN lines had decreased to 21.7 million, while
ISDN lines were up to 7.2 million.

INTERNET USE
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10. After a slow start in the late 1990s, Internet use has
rapidly grown. There are 23 million users (subscribers)
(including business, residents, schools and public offices)
compared to only 13 million in 2000. Internet is driving
broadband development. According to the Communications
Authority, broadband lines are growing faster in Italy than in the
rest of Europe; Italy represents approximately 13 percent of
Europe's broadband market. The GOI has made significant progress
in its goal of bringing broadband to 90 percent of the public
sector by the end of 2005.


11. According to Federcomin (Italy's ICT industry association),
the Internet is still used largely for e-mail/data transmission
and research, with limited business conducted. Italian consumers
remain reluctant to put credit card information on the Internet,
and still have a limited knowledge of English. According to a
recent study, only 20 percent of Italians have sufficient
knowledge of the English language to be able to conduct
transactions on the Internet. Another significant factor is the
Italian retail market. Most Italians, including those living in
smaller urban centers, have easy access to small/mid sized retail
outlets, as well as banking and insurance services, which makes
Internet use/purchases less necessary or desirable. Regarding
business-to-business (B2B),Italian small and medium-sized
enterprises, the backbone of Italy's economy, reportedly still
find it complicated, impractical, and often not economic to move
away from traditional purchasing means. Again, though, the
situation is evolving.


11. Wi-Fi (Wireless Fidelity) is still in its infancy in Italy.
Our contacts believe that it is highly unlikely the public sector
will take leadership on Wi-Fi development, although Communications
Ministry officials said that the GOI is investing approximately
100 million euros in Wi-Fi development. Communications sector


contacts believe that it will largely be up to the private sector
to promote, and invest in, Wi-Fi.

FIXED LINES WILL NOT DISAPPEAR
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12. Just a few years ago, most industry players would have said
that fixed lines would become obsolete. This is being
reconsidered today. The mobile market is viewed as essentially
mature, with limited innovation opportunities and only relative
growth potential. On the other hand, with the advent of Internet
and broadband development, fixed line applications are growing;
and demand for fixed line services is increasing.

Privatization of WIND
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13. Privatization of WIND had been suspended because of the
downturn in capital markets, particularly for telecom operators.
With improved market conditions, the GOI as well as ENEL
management now seem to eager to sell off WIND. ENEL and WIND
senior management have informally approached us regarding possible
U.S. interest in the purchase of, or some form of partnership
with, WIND.


14. Communications Ministry/Authority officials, as well as
officials representing communications industry associations, also
have called for greater U.S. presence in the sector in Italy.
They believe the size and sophistication of the market, with its
open regulatory system in place, should attract foreign, and
particularly, U.S. investment.

COMMENT
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15. There is an increasingly firm consensus here among the GOI,
the regulator, operators and sector associations - that Italy has
a truly open market. The GOI, although still present in the
market, has promoted, not hindered, the market's openness, and has
brought Italy into compliance with various telecom-related EU
directives. After having lagged behind other G7 countries, Italy
is catching up in terms of broadband development and greater use
of Internet. The mobile telephone market, although a mature
market with little room for growth, is among the most
sophisticated in the world. Italy is expected to be in the
forefront of 3G use, once widespread public services are offered.
Fixed network applications still offer, nonetheless, the greatest
potential for growth over the coming years in Italy. End Comment.
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2004ROME01648 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED