ITALY: NO WAY TO UNSC "REFORM"

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 001425 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR P. IO & EUR E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2014 TAGS: KUNR PREL GM JA FR RS IT UNSC SUBJECT: ITALY: NO WAY TO UNSC "REFORM" REF: A. 03 ROME 02636 ¶B. ROME 00548 ¶C. A/S HOLMES REMARKS TO CFR 10/21/03 Classified By: POL M/C T. Countryman for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This cable contains an action request for IO: please see summary and paragraph 9. ¶2. (C) Summary. Italy is very concerned that a new UN reform push in New York will end with Italy frozen out of an expanded UNSC that includes both Germany and Japan. Italians fear that SYG Annan and the panel of eminent persons, mandated to study UN reform, are inclined to push for UNSC expansion due to lobbying efforts from Germany, Japan, France and Russia. The Italians believe U.S. support for a permanent German seat would effectively reward one of the strongest opponents to U.S. Iraq policy and punish one of our staunchest supporters. As such, it would send the wrong message to those nations that support the U.S. Embassy has encouraged the Italians to focus on positive principles for institutional reform rather than solely a 'negative' position on UNSC reform. Although UNSC expansion may not occur due to the same zero-sum dynamics that prevented UNSC expansion in the 1990s, SYG Annan and the panel may present a detailed, fast-track proposal that could result in changes. Action request: Arguing against UNSC expansion will be a dominant theme in GOI discussions with us, beginning with FM Frattini's April 20 visit to Washington. To prepare accordingly, embassy requests inclusion in any internal USG discussion of UN reform as well as information on the SYG's and panel's plans. Embassy welcomes points for the Italians. End summary. ¶3. (C) The GOI is making a full court press to make sure the U.S. understands how strongly it feels about UN "reform". Their primary concern is that reform will result in the expansion of the UNSC rather than in the improvement of how the UN functions. Italians fear that SYG Annan and the panel of eminent persons, mandated to study UN reform and review how the UN can better deal with important issues, will be more inclined to propose changes for the UNSC than to analyze issues related to the functioning of the institution. They note that there is pressure and lobbying from both the Japanese and the Germans, citing a 1 million dollar Japanese donation to the panel and active statements by Chancellor Shroeder and FM Fischer (related to internal political problems with the social democrats) as well as apparent endorsement by France and Russia of a permanent German seat. Why do the Italians Care? -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Germany's addition to the UNSC as a permanent member would be an "unthinkable disaster" for Italian foreign policy. Italy has always put up with the condescension of London and Paris but found comfort in being in the same position in New York as Germany. Italians can't resist the sports metaphor: Germany being promoted to the big leagues while Italy is left behind in the minors would come as a terrible political blow both domestically and internationally. ¶5. (C) Italians also fear that UNSC expansion would emasculate the G-8. With six of the eight members having permanent UNSC seats, they believe there would be less reason to maintain the G-8 as a functioning institution since important decisions would end up being made in New York. They tell us Canada shares this concern. ¶6. (C) Italy's strong support for the UN and its desire to remain an important player within the institution reflects strong Italian public support for the UN and also a clear consciousness that Italy has to punch above its weight and participate, at times, beyond its means. Italy is a leading participant in UN missions and provides substantial funding to the UN. By its tally, Italy is currently the second largest troop contributor to UN PKOs and the fifth largest donor. The Italians are neither ready nor willing to risk losing the gradually increasing stature that they have recently gained through their active efforts in the UN and international affairs. Does the US Care/Should we? -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The Italians believe the U.S. should be equally concerned about UNSC expansion, especially if it results in a permanent seat for Germany. On the internal front, government contacts argue that rewarding Germany with a seat on the UNSC after its strong opposition to Iraq would reward critics of the Berlusconi government who have argued and will now be able to prove that Berlusconi has gotten nothing in return for his support of the U.S. Internationally, they believe, rewarding Germany at this time would represent a slap in the face to those governments who have supported the U.S. Italian officials with experience at the UN argue that an expanded UNSC is inevitably less effective and less supportive of the U.S. They add that inclusion of such permanent members as Germany, Japan, India or Brazil, would not help the U.S. advance its interests in the council. Embassy Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Italy realizes that being 'against reform of the UNSC', is a hard argument to make. Embassy has listened carefully to the Italian argument and has encouraged them to make clear that UNSC expansion is only one small aspect of 'reform'. As A/S Holmes outlined in remarks before the Council of Foreign Relations (ref c),Embassy has suggested that the Italians embrace our definition of reform by focusing on the following principles; responsibility, credibility, accountability, effectiveness and freedom - which, if adhered to, will do far more than a shuffling of chairs. ¶9. (C) We are aware (and have argued to Italian officials) that this issue has been under discussion for over eight years and that, due to the zero-sum dynamic among potential permanent members, consensus on expansion will always be difficult. From our perch here, it's more difficult to evaluate the Italians' concern that the panel may generate its own momentum or at least, under the SYG's proposal, produce a detailed 'take-it-or-leave-it', fast-track proposal on UNSC expansion which could attract a consensus. End comment. Action Request -------------- ¶10. (C) The Italians are very concerned with this issue and kick it to the top of virtually every discussion (as G-8 Political Director Davies learned during his February GME discussions)(ref b). We must be prepared to discuss UN reform with Italian counterparts at all levels - including FM Frattini in two weeks. Due to the intense focus on this issue, we request inclusion in internal USG dialogue regarding UN reform - specifically UNSC expansion - and information on the SYG's panel of eminent persons charged with reviewing UN reform and any plans or strategies they may have regarding UNSC expansion. Points detailing our current position on UNSC reform, releasable to the GOI, would be extremely helpful. End action request. Visit Rome's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/rome/index.cf m SEMBLER NNNN 2004ROME01425 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL