RUMP CEC PUTTING HOUSE IN ORDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000082 SIPDIS STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV; USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2005 TAGS: PREL PGOV BM NLD SUBJECT: RUMP CEC PUTTING HOUSE IN ORDER REF: A. RANGOON 16 ¶B. 03 RANGOON 1653 ¶C. 03 BANGKOK 8212 Classified By: CDA, a.i. Ronald K. McMullen for Reasons 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The five NLD CEC members not under house arrest continue to meet daily and are pushing the security envelope further. The CEC is "putting the house back in order" and has held meetings with NLD Chairs from all of Burma's States and Divisions. Township-level meetings have begun as well. The CEC received briefings from most of the participants in the Dec 15 Thai-sponsored Burma meeting in Bangkok. The CEC says a KNU cease-fire is a good thing and won't hurt them in a National Convention. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Four of the five free NLD Central Executive Committee members met with PolOff January 14 to discuss recent developments. U Nyunt Wei, the NLD's economic advisor, provided the following points: - NLD is busy putting its house back in order. Though still not in communication with ASSK, the rump CEC has held meetings with NLD Division and State Chairs, and are now beginning meetings with township-level Chairs. So far the security forces have not interfered. The message the CEC most frequently hears from the rank and file party membership is "when will the revolution start?" - At the request of the CEC (ref B),the French, Italian, German, Japanese, UNDP, and Razali's representative Leon de Reidmatten have all stopped in to brief the CEC on the December Thai-sponsored meeting on Burma (ref C). The Chinese and Indians have declined to accept the invitation. - The CEC mailed a confidential letter to Sr Gen Than Shwe first week of January "respectfully requesting" the SPDC explain what the 7-point road map is all about. U Nyunt Wei offered that it is difficult to plan if NLD doesn't know what the details are. No response to date. - The CEC disagrees with UNSYG Annan's categorization of the SPDC road map as a democratic transition, and views it instead as the legitimization of a military dictatorship. - The road map is nothing new, it merely states the steps that have always been needed to form a new government. The timing of the announcement of the road map was designed to take attention away from the Depeyin attack, and to respond to U.S. sanctions. - The visit of KNU leader Gen Bo Mya is a good thing -- "everyone should be talking and not shooting"" each other. Nyunt Wei feels "Bo Mya won't throw 50 years of work down the drain to promote a dictatorship." And a KNU cease-fire would not weaken the NLD's position on the National Convention (NC). "They can hold it without us anyway." - The CEC is aware of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) decision to send delegates' names to the SPDC for the NC. (Comment: But the SNLD has not committed to participate unless its stringent conditions are met.) U Nyunt Wei opined it is possible the SPDC is going to pull many of the ethnic groups into the NC. - Regarding political tactics used for the road map, the SPDC will press for what is wants, then the NLD will do the same -- and then compromise will follow. Nyunt Wei again said that the entire road map process is merely designed to legitimize a military dictatorship. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: The continued detention of ASSK and other NLD leaders has heretofore paralyzed the democracy movement. However, the rump CEC's dogged determination to press on is a clear reminder that the SPDC can tighten the noose but not extinguish the flame of dissent. The CEC's letter to Sr Gen Than Shwe is indication that the NLD has not ruled out participation in the National Convention. END SUMMARY. McMullen