NLD DECLARES BOYCOTT OF NATIONAL CONVENTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000600

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV BM NLD
SUBJECT: NLD DECLARES BOYCOTT OF NATIONAL CONVENTION

REF: A. RANGOON 594 (NOTAL)


B. RANGOON 587 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: The NLD, failing to secure the release of
party leaders ASSK and U Tin Oo, declared publicly on May 14
that the party will not attend the SPDC's National
Convention. Burma's leading pro-democracy ethnic coalition
will follow suit. However, NLD leaders allow that if the
regime chooses to continue bilateral negotiations, the NLD
would be prepared to listen. Given that further
clarification is unlikely prior to May 17, we advise that in
the interim the Department continue calls for the release of
NLD leaders and for all parties to be allowed to participate
in the reconciliation process, but refrain from direct
commentary on the National Convention itself. End comment.


2. (U) The National League for Democracy (NLD),at a dramatic
May 14 press conference, declared publicly that the party
will not participate in the SPDC's National Convention,
scheduled to reconvene on May 17. The press conference was
attended by international media stringers, over two hundred
NLD supporters, numerous ethnic party leaders, and several
diplomats, including COM and representatives from the
British, French, German, Italian, and Japanese embassies.


3. (U) NLD Chairman U Aung Shwe read a brief statement at the
conference and stated that the NLD had strongly desired to
attend the Convention and had offered the SPDC "minimal
conditions" for NLD participation. He said that the NLD had
achieved an agreement with the regime on the right of
political parties to choose their own delegates to the
Convention and made limited progress on allowing debate and
discussion on substantive portions of the draft constitution.
However, he said that SPDC authorities had not clarified how
they would implement free debate at the Convention, nor had
they agreed to open NLD offices immediately or release NLD
Vice Chairman U Tin Oo and General Secretary Aung San Suu Kyi.


4. (U) U Aung Shwe concluded his statement, to thunderous
applause from party members and supporters, by saying that
"the NLD does not believe it will be able to benefit the
nation by participating; therefore, it has been decided that
the NLD will not attend the National Convention."


5. (C) Following the reading of statement, P/E chief talked
briefly with Hkun Htun Oo, leader of the SNLD and chairman of
the United Nationalities Alliance (UNA) coalition of
pro-democracy ethnic parties, who joined a joint UNA-NLD
meeting after the press conference. Asked what approach the
pro-democracy ethnics parties would take to the question of
participation in the Convention, Hkun Htun Oo stated "the
same as the NLD."


6. (C) NLD leaders tell us that they issued their statement
on the basis that registration for the Convention closed
today, May 14. However, COM also spoke with NLD CEC members
U Lwin and U Nyunt Wei who intimated that the NLD was
engaging in a game of brinkmanship with the regime. They
allowed that if the regime signaled its intent to talk over
the weekend, the NLD would be prepared to listen. "The
Convention doesn't begin for three days," said U Nyunt Wei,
"the ball is now in (the regime's) court."


7. (C) Comment: Although the NLD statement was unambiguous,
several scenarios could unfold over the coming days. The
SPDC will plow ahead with the Convention and has no intention
of postponing opening ceremonies on May 17. However, a
boycott by the NLD and the leading ethnic parties poses a
serious challenge to the regime's road map. Authorities
could respond with a renewed crackdown on the democratic
opposition (ref A),or they could continue quiet negotiations
to entice NLD and UNA participation. Given that further
clarification is unlikely prior to May 17, we advise that in
the interim the Department continue calls for the release of
NLD leaders and for all parties to be allowed to participate
in the reconciliation process, but refrain from direct
commentary on the National Convention itself. End comment.
Martinez