KNU OBSERVERS TO ATTEND NATIONAL CONVENTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000537

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; USPACOM FOR FPA
COMMERCE FOR ITA JEAN KELLY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINS BM
SUBJECT: KNU OBSERVERS TO ATTEND NATIONAL CONVENTION

REF: A. CHAING MAI 115


B. RANGOON 405

C. DAO RANGOON 271015Z APR 04

Classified By: COM Carmen M. Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: According to a well-placed, Rangoon-based
ethnic Karen leader, the Karen National Union (KNU) will send
a two-person observer delegation to the National Convention
(NC) in May. The postponed SPDC-KNU talks originally
scheduled for late April could take place in late May,
despite the resumption of the NC on May 17. Local Karen
sources say 12 ethnic Karens, including three Rangoon-based
Karen civic leaders and five Democratic Karen Burmese Army
(DKBA) members, will attend the NC as full delegates. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) According to a senior Rangoon-based Karen Development
Community (KDC) leader involved in setting up the January
SPDC-KNU cease-fire talks, even though the talks planned for
late April have been postponed (ref A),the KNU is planning
to send a two member "observer" delegation to the National
Convention. The contact further reported that the observer
group will supposedly consist of KNU General Secretary Pad
Mahn Sha, and Joint General Secretary Pado David Htaw, and
will not participate in any formal NC discussions or debates.
The KDC leader was optimistic that SPDC-KNU talks will
resume in mid-May and will conclude with a lasting
settlement.


3. (C) Our KDC contact also informed us that the SPDC has
invited him and two other Karen civic leaders from Rangoon,
and one previously unknown Karen schoolteacher from Myawaddy
(COMMENT: Most likely a trustworthy, pro-regime USDA member),
to attend the NC as "Specially Invited Guest" delegates. In
addition, the SPDC has invited five DKBA delegates to attend.
Another senior Rangoon-based KDC leader, who was present at
the January SPDC-KNU cease-fire talks and has strong ties
with the GOB, affirmed that over 10 ethnic Karens will be
attending the NC.


4. (C) The KDC leader with strong GOB ties commented to us
that the one-month postponement of SPDC-KNU talks is a good
thing, as it will give the KNU commanders more time to
prepare for the discussion on demarcation and troop
placement. He believes that the SPDC will agree to give the
KNU seven areas of control, corresponding to the present
mountainous locations of the seven KNU brigades in eastern
Karen State. Apparently, the SPDC will also allow a KNU
office to be set up in Pa-an (Hpa-an),the capital of Karen
State.


5. (C) COMMENT: If the KNU has agreed to send observers to
the Convention, the KNU then will at least be able to confer
with the friendly Burma-based ethnic Karen delegates during
the NC and discuss issues pertaining to pan-Karen political
and cultural aspirations. The KNU observers could also
confer with several other ethnic delegations concerning
constitutional issues important to them all. However, in
agreeing now to send observers, the KNU may have given up
scant remaining leverage they could have used in the next
round of talks with the SPDC. END COMMENT.
Martinez