TFXO01: TSUNAMI DEATH TOLL RISES IN BURMA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001633 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, CA TASK FORCE, OPS CENTER BANGKOK, KATHMANDU FOR USAID USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: AEMR CASC PREL PINR PGOV AMGT BM SUBJECT: TFXO01: TSUNAMI DEATH TOLL RISES IN BURMA REF: A. RANGOON 1629 ¶B. SECSTATE 273476 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: It is evident now that Burma's remote coastal and delta regions suffered at least several dozen casualties and, at the village level, significant property damage from the earthquakes and tsunami of December 26th, although the full extent of the impact is still unclear. As of COB December 28th, there are no reports of any Amcit dead or missing. Remarkably, the GOB, always reluctant to admit any problems in the Golden Land, has publicly announced deaths and damage in coastal regions, although official figures are considerably lower than UN and NGO estimates. UN agencies and the Red Cross are assessing the situation and have offered assistance, though the GOB has yet to request any outside aid. No matter how bad it gets here, and the death toll will almost certainly climb, we are doubtful the government will ask for international help. End summary. Government Admits a Problem ¶2. (U) The GOB has taken the unusual step of announcing publicly that there were casualties in Burma due to the earthquakes and subsequent tsunami of December 26th. According to the December 28th edition of the mouthpiece daily "The New Light of Myanmar," Burma was hit by nine earthquakes between 7:30 a.m. and 9:30 am on the 26th with resulting damage to buildings in six of Burma's 14 administrative regions. The most significant damage occurred in "coastal regions," where, according to the GOB, 34 people were killed, 45 injured, and 25 are still missing. The GOB reported that tidal waves destroyed 17 villages in this same area, leaving 200 people homeless. The newspaper account noted that GOB officials were visiting damaged townships in the delta region and offering unspecified "necessary supplies." ¶3. (SBU) The GOB official numbers are at variance with those of several UN sources who, as of December 28th, offered estimates as high as 57 deaths -- 20 in southern Tanintharyi Division, bordering Thailand, and 37 in the Irrawaddy River delta region southwest of Rangoon. According to additional UN sources, the GOB has not requested international assistance and thus UN efforts are focused on assessment. The International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC) remains the coordinating agency for any international relief efforts in Burma, though UNDP is poised to take over that function should the situation worsen. ¶4. (SBU) The official GOB numbers also differ from those given us informally by a government source who claimed there are 56 dead and 92 injured in southern Tanintharyi Division alone. In addition, a Myanmar Red Cross source told UN officials that he thought there could be as many as 90 dead in the Irrawaddy delta zone, though he admitted this number was based on informally gathered information. No Amcits Reported Missing ¶5. (U) There have not been any reports of missing or dead American citizens in Burma. The areas apparently hardest hit by the earthquakes and high seas, which include hundreds of delta and coastal islands, are quite remote and mostly untouristed. Dive boats launched out of Phuket in southern Thailand are known to frequent waters in southernmost Burma, but we have received no reports of boats or foreign tourists missing in these areas. As mentioned in reftel, and corroborated by business and UN contacts, there was little or no damage to the major tourist beach areas west of Rangoon on the Bay of Bengal. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: The number of deaths will likely rise over the next several days as UN field officers and NGO workers report in from remote locations. There is very poor communication with remote delta settlements and with islands in the archipelago along the far southeastern coast. The number of itinerant fishermen in these heavily fished areas is also unknown. Whatever the ultimate toll, we expect the GOB to understate any future official accounts of the disaster. In addition, we would be surprised if the GOB made any requests for international aid no matter how high the toll climbs. End comment. MARTINEZ