C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 001315

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM BM NLD
SUBJECT: THE NLD ENFORCES "PARTY DISCIPLINE"

REF: A. RANGOON 1149

B. RANGOON 1277

Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: On September 29, the NLD CEC suspended three
local level party leaders following an "unauthorized" quiet
march in support of several standard NLD policy positions.
One senior NLD advisor told us that that the CEC, including
ASSK, believes "party discipline must be enforced--otherwise
the movement risks falling into chaos." Regretfully, the
party's public display of internal fissures signals to the
regime that the SPDC's pressure tactics, aimed at squeezing
the NLD and rendering the democracy movement ineffective, are
showing results. End Summary.


2. (U) On September 27 several dozen members of the National
League for Democracy (NLD) undertook a quiet march from party
headquarters to nearby UNDP offices to deliver a letter
calling for U.N. recognition of the results of the 1990
elections, help in freeing Aung San Suu Kyi and political
prisoners, and other NLD positions. The march took place
following an NLD commemoration of the pro-democracy party's
16th anniversary.


3. (SBU) However, NLD leaders on September 29 suspended at
least three women members of the party for their role in
organizing the "unauthorized" demonstration. According to
senior party sources, the NLD Central Executive Committee
(CEC) was unaware of the march and did not direct the action.
CEC members were displeased by wire reports covering the
event, which characterized the contents of the letter as
official NLD policy. In addition to addressing ASSK's
detention and the 1990 elections, the letter reportedly
called for the convening of a "People's Parliament," an
action previously advanced by the NLD that provoked the SPDC
and led to intense repression and harassment of Members-elect
of Parliament and other activists.


4. (C) One senior NLD advisor told us on October 2 that the
decision to suspend the three women, local level party
leaders from Rangoon and Magwe, was "made by all nine members
of the CEC," signifying that ASSK and Vice Chairman U Tin Oo,
also under house arrest, used back channels to weigh in on
the issue. "The NLD is in a precarious situation," said the
senior advisor, "and the CEC believes that strict party
discipline must be enforced--otherwise the movement risks
falling into chaos."


5. (C) Comment: The NLD, believed by many observers to be at
its most beleaguered position in years, is clearly suffering
the strains of regime pressure. The prolonged detention of
the party's two key leaders (16 months and counting), the
complete shutdown of all party activities outside of Rangoon,
and an increase in arbitrary arrests and harassment (ref B)
is taking its toll. As we have noted recently, the status
quo is creating considerable frustration within the party,
where a growing chorus of rank and file voices are demanding
party action (ref A). Regretfully, the recent party
suspensions are an airing of dirty laundry that signal to the
regime that the SPDC's pressure tactics, aimed at squeezing
the NLD and rendering the democracy movement ineffective, are
showing results. End Comment.
Martinez