GOB INDIFFERENT TO HISTORIC FLOODING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001151 SIPDIS STATE PASS AID/ANE STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EB, AND IO BANGKOK FOR AID USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2014 TAGS: SENV EAGR ECON PGOV BM SUBJECT: GOB INDIFFERENT TO HISTORIC FLOODING REF: RANGOON 625 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Record rainfall in July and August led to historic flooding throughout Burma, rendering thousands homeless and causing severe damage to rice crops. The Burmese regime denied that any flooding occurred and arrested individuals for distributing video footage of flooded towns. GOB efforts to reclaim damaged fields and replant rice will do little to thwart the likelihood of a decline in national rice production for 2004. However, the GOB could prolong an ongoing rice export ban to avoid social unrest stemming from shortages or price increases. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Unusually heavy monsoon rains in July and August led to severe flooding in most low-lying areas of Burma. The Irrawaddy river peaked on July 27 at 1.4 meters in Mandalay, the highest recorded level in 30 years, rendering thousands of people homeless and temporarily cutting off the Mandalay International airport. Water levels in Bago Division were still well above the danger mark at the end of August, after reaching the second highest recorded level in history. The Chindwin and Thanlwin rivers also rose above the danger level, flooding dozens of towns, submerging aquaculture farms, and pushing dams and reservoirs beyond capacity. According to NGOs and local officials, farmers lost homes, livestock, and acres of rice fields, as well as rice stored for domestic consumption. ¶3. (C) Sources at the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation tell us privately that over 200,000 acres of rice may have been seriously damaged or lost. Although casualties were minimal, local villagers report that as waters recede they face fouled wells, infectious diseases, and poisonous snakes forced into inhabited areas. Neither the GOB nor the Myanmar Red Cross (MRC) have released official damage figures, but Embassy sources report that floods may have displaced over 100,000 households. ¶4. (C) The Burmese regime has reacted predictably to this latest natural disaster. Several senior GOB officials denied to Embassy officers than any flooding had occurred or downplayed the impact by describing rising rivers as a seasonal phenomenon ("A little water won't hurt anyone" said one MFA official). In late August we received credible reports that military intelligence had arrested several individuals for distributing videos of flooding in Kachin State. ¶5. (U) SPDC Secretary 2, Lt. Gen Thein Sein, emerged mid-flooding to inspect affected areas, but official press coverage made no mention of damage or casualties. Private journals refrained from covering the flooding for fear of political backlash, although one obscure health magazine cited the distribution of lunch packets to flood victims in Sagaing, providing some Burmese with the only domestic reports of the flooding. The Myanmar Times, a government-affiliated weekly newspaper, devoted some coverage in late August to flooding, but minimized the damage by emphasizing casualties in neighboring India and Bangladesh. ¶6. (C) UN agencies, who concede they were caught off guard by a cyclone that hit Rakhine State in May, tell us that they have been prepared for the past two months to provide emergency flood relief at a moment's notice. However, the regime has declined to request foreign assistance. The MRC provided evacuation assistance and privately admits that farmers who lost rice crops may require long-term aid. Additional groups that mobilized with assistance include Swiss Aid, the Metta Foundation (a reputable and independent Burmese NGO to which U.S. mission employees and FSNs have privately contributed funds and clothing to help flood victims),the Kachin Baptist Convention, World Vision, and the National League for Democracy. These organizations have assisted with cleaning wells and procuring mosquito netting, sand bags, oral rehydration packets, rice, and drinking water. ¶7. (C) Comment: Officially, the GOB says that efforts are underway to reclaim flooded farmlands and replant damaged rice crops. With only two months left in the growing season, these efforts will do little to thwart the likelihood of a drastically reduced rice yield and a corresponding fall in national rice production for 2004. However, due to the GOB's rice export ban (reftel),there are considerable stocks of rice in the hands of traders and millers (an estimated 300,000 metric tons). The GOB will certainly not admit to a fall in production and could prolong the export ban to avoid social unrest stemming from a shortage or an increase in price. "Creative" exemptions to the export ban, however, will permit the GOB to continue to earn much-needed foreign exchange. End Comment. Martinez