THE NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY: MONSOON SEASON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001035

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV BM ASSK NLD
SUBJECT: THE NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY: MONSOON SEASON
BLUES

REF: RANGOON 924

Classified By: CDA a.i. Ron McMullen for Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: The NLD CEC has established regular
communications with ASSK and U Tin Oo. An ongoing NLD
petition drive to free the two leaders has proven minimally
appealing to party members and supporters, and has also
encountered some regime resistance in Mandalay and Sagaing
divisions. With the regime apparently ignoring the NLD and
the party itself lacking plans for imminent action, NLD
leaders assess accurately that the political environment is
"rather quiet these days." End Summary.


2. (C) Charge d'Affaires, a.i. and A/DCM met on August 10
with NLD CEC members U Lwin and U Nyunt Wei. U Lwin,
describing the overall political environment as "rather quiet
these days," observed that the SPDC had made no overtures to
the NLD since the party's decision in mid-May to boycott the
National Convention (currently in recess). He noted that the
regime seemed more concerned with foreign affairs than with
the domestic political opposition, citing Prime Minister Khin
Nyunt's recent travels to China, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and
Cambodia.


3. (C) The NLD is busy with an ongoing petition drive which,
the CEC members said, "was causing the authorities some
concern" (reftel). According to U Lwin, the party has
received about 1,000 signatures at headquarters, but
considerably more upcountry (e.g. Magway Division, with over
5,000 signatures). U Lwin said that the petition drive was
an optional undertaking for regional party leaders and was
"not popular everywhere," including Rangoon where many
residents are "more interested in playing the lottery."
However, U Lwin added, most members of the Veteran
Politicians group (pro-democracy, retired government
officials) had signed the petition.


4. (C) U Nyunt Wei said that the petition effort had
encountered resistance in Mandalay and Sagaing Divisions.
Local authorities had not physically impeded party members
from signing the petition, but had put into place
intimidating surveillance at signing locations. And,
according to U Lwin, USDA officials (the regime's mass-member
organization which carried out the 2003 attack in Sagaing on
ASSK and her NLD convoy) had warned local NLD leaders that
the petition campaign could provoke anti-NLD elements and
"lead to clashes."


5. (C) U Lwin said that the NLD CEC now maintains quiet, but
regular, communications with ASSK. "We hear from her on a
daily basis," said U Lwin, observing with surprise that he
and his colleagues were able to send in parcels and letters
to ASSK "with no interference from the authorities." (Note:
We have used other channels in recent months to send in
briefing papers and other messages, but have received no
substantive responses. End note.) U Lwin also said that the
CEC has regular contact with NLD Vice Chairman U Tin Oo, who
is in "good health and good spirits," via his wife who visits
NLD headquarters daily. U Lwin said, however, that neither
ASSK nor U Tin Oo have been allowed to visit other CEC
members since negotiations with the SPDC broke down in May.


6. (C) Comment: The CDA, a.i. used this opportunity to
re-extend the Embassy's offer to assist the party in any way
possible, including capacity building efforts through public
diplomacy programs. U Lwin and U Nyunt Wei did not cite any
specific immediate needs, but intimated they would
communicate the offer to ASSK. While the two elderly leaders
appeared to be in good spirits, they revealed no plans for
imminent party action and said that had no timetable or
specific objective for the petition campaign. The NLD CEC
plans to convoke the Committee to Represent the People's
Parliament (CRPP) for that group's sixth anniversary in
September, but has not yet developed an agenda. End Comment.


McMullen