NO DECISION IMMINENT ON CHINA/TAIWAN DIPLOMATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001953 SIPDIS STATE PASS AIT/W E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL TW CH PM POL CHIEF SUBJECT: NO DECISION IMMINENT ON CHINA/TAIWAN DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION REF: AIT TAIPEI 2208 Classified By: AMBASSADOR LINDA E. WATT, REASON 1.5 B, D ¶1. IN A BREAKFAST MEETING ON JULY 29, PANAMA'S VICE PRESIDENT-ELECT (AND PRESUMPTIVE FOREIGN MINISTER) SAMUEL LEWIS NAVARRO TOLD AMBASSADOR THAT THE INCOMING TORRIJOS GOVERNMENT IS FAR FROM MAKING A DECISION ON THE POSSIBILITY OF DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION OF CHINA. REFERRING TO LEWIS' JUNE 30 INQUIRY TO THE AMBASSADOR AS TO U.S. VIEWS ON THE SUBJECT, SHE INFORMED HIM THAT SHE HAD DISCUSSED THE ISSUE WITH SENIOR DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS DURING RECENT CONSULTATIONS IN WASHINGTON, AND WAS AUTHORIZED TO SAY THAT THE U.S. VIEWED THIS AS A SOVEREIGN PANAMANIAN DECISION. SHE URGED HIM TO CONSIDER ALL THE RAMIFICATIONS OF A CHANGE, OR LACK OF CHANGE, IN DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION, AND NOTED THAT IT WOULD BE VIEWED IN A BROADER CONTEXT IN THE U.S. AND ELSEWHERE. ¶2. LEWIS NAVARRO SAID THAT THE INCOMING ADMINISTRATION IS UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE BY BOTH CHINA AND TAIWAN REGARDING DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION, BUT THAT PANAMA'S INCOMING GOVERNMENT WOULD VERY CAREFULLY CONSIDER THE ISSUE BEFORE COMING TO ANY DECISION. "WE ARE NOT LEANING IN EITHER DIRECTION AT THIS TIME", SPECIFICALLY ASSURING THE AMBASSADOR THAT IN ANY EVENT TORRIJOS WOULD DO NOTHING PRIOR TO THE U.S. ELECTIONS TO AVOID HAVING THIS SUBJECT BECOME A POLITICAL FOOTBALL. HE ADDED THAT HE WOULD HOPE TO HAVE AN ONGOING DIALOGUE WITH US OVER THE NEXT MONTHS AS THEY CONSIDER THE OPTIONS. ¶3. THE AMBASSADOR INQUIRED AS TO ANY CONNECTION BETWEEN THE PLANS FOR CANAL MODERNIZATION AND THE QUESTION OF CHINA/TAIWAN RECOGNITION. LEWIS DENIED ANY LINK; INDEED, HE AFFIRMED THAT THE TORRIJOS ADMINISTRATION IN NO WAY WISHED TO RESURRECT THE NOW MORIBUND ACCUSATION OF ALLEGED "CONTROL OF THE PANAMA CANAL" BY THE CHINESE. ¶4. IN A SEPARATE CONVERSATION RECENTLY, THE AMBASSADOR ASKED PANAMA CANAL ADMINISTRATOR ALBERTO ALEMAN ZUBIETA HIS VIEWS ON THE RECOGNITION OF CHINA VERSUS TAIWAN. ALEMAN, WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING TAIWAN'S SHIPPING INTERESTS AND ITS UBIQUITOUS AID PROGRAM, BELIEVES THAT PANAMA'S INTERESTS CLEARLY LIE WITH CHINA, GIVEN THAT COUNTRY'S EXTENSIVE TRADE VIA THE CANAL AND THE DOMINANCE OF ITS PRODUCTS IN THE COLON FREE ZONE. ¶5. COMMENT: WHILE IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL, WE ASSESS THAT THE ODDS ARE WITH CHINA. TORRIJOS AND LEWIS ARE NOT UNAWARE OF THE LARGER IMPLICATIONS OF A CHANGE IN RECOGNITION, AND THESE CONSIDERATIONS WILL AFFECT THEIR DECISION. WE HAVE LAID DOWN AN IMPORTANT MARKER REGARDING CHINA AND THE CANAL, AND WANT TO ENSURE NO HINT OF ANY QUID PRO QUO VIS-A-VIS CANAL MODERNIZATION OR FINANCING. WATT