PANAMA MAY 2 ELECTION RESULTS: POWERFUL PRD AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 001047 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT. FOR WHA/CEN/BRIGHAM E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PM POL CHIEF POLITICS FOREIGN POLICY SUBJECT: PANAMA MAY 2 ELECTION RESULTS: POWERFUL PRD AND AGONIZED ARNULFISTAS REF: A. PANAMA 0896 ¶B. PANAMA 1014 ¶C. PANAMA 1015 Classified By: DCM Christopher J. McMullen for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) Summary: Voters embrace Torrijos and snub Moscoso -------------- -------------- ¶1. (C) President-elect Martin Torrijos and his Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) won a commanding popular mandate in Panama's May 2, 2004 elections, sweeping all provinces but one. The results were a stinging rebuke of President Mireya Moscoso, whose five-year term will end on September 1, 2004. Youth and women strongly backed Torrijos, whose "new PRD" was the only one of Panama's seven legally-recognized parties to hold primaries before the May 2004 elections. Embassy's 28 volunteer election observers, including Ambassador and DCM, watched the orderly and extensive (over 75%) May 2 polling throughout the country. Torrijos finished with 47% of the vote, the strongest showing for a PRD candidate since 1989. Second-place finisher Guillermo Endara took 31.0% of the vote, leaving Arnulfista candidate Jose Miguel Aleman (Moscoso's former Foreign Minister) a distant third with 16%, the weakest showing ever for the Arnulfista Party. Perceptions of the Moscoso administration's image of corruption and ineffectiveness dragged Aleman down, but Arnulfista dissident Guillermo Endara's reputation for honesty and integrity attracted many votes. The PRD won a plurality of at least 36 of Panama's 78 legislative seats and could win up to four more. The PRD also won the mayoral seats in Panama's three largest cities, Panama, Colon, and David. End Summary. Torrijos' PRD on Top -------------- ¶2. (C) Martin Torrijos' triumph won him every Panamanian province but the small indigenous "comarca" of Kuna Yala (Aleman's only victory). Torrijos' persistent campaigning since his May 1999 loss to Mireya Moscoso brought him backing from young, energetic voters and attracted several members of other parties and independents. Torrijos' youth supporters joined his campaign through the PRD's "Team Martin." Torrijos has marketed himself as a modern leader and used the PRD primaries to show that the PRD, once the political vehicle of military dictators, may indeed be Panama's most democratically-run party. The PRD was so organized that rather than handing out campaign souvenirs like caps and T-shirts, they were able to sell them to finance the campaign. (Comment: The Torrijos team's ability to stifle press coverage of Martin's tangential involvement in a 1985 kidnapping is one of the few elements reminiscent of the PRD's old profile. (See Reftel A for details.) End Comment.) Moscoso in the doldrums -------------- ¶3. (C) President Mireya Moscoso, reeling from her party's greatest defeat ever, was clearly stunned and hurt when she conceded victory to Torrijos on May 2. Running on a third-party ticket, Guillermo Endara, who left Moscoso's Arnulfista Party in early 2003 claiming that it had strayed from its roots under her leadership, nearly doubled Arnulfista Jose Miguel Aleman's anemic showing. The sting of Endara's strong showing would have been bad enough without the massive support that Panamanians gave to Torrijos and his party, the Arnulfistas' arch-enemies. Endara's slogan, "A Real President" spoke to Panamanians disgruntled with the Moscoso administration's perceived incompetence and its failure to halt corruption or spur employment. Voters also rejected Moscoso's arrogant refusal to make her government more transparent as they embraced Torrijos' "more jobs, more security, zero corruption" message. What will happen to the Arnulfista's? -------------- ¶4. (C) The Arnulfista Party's sound May 2 defeat could encourage either turnover in party leadership or exodus from the party. In his May 2 concession speech, Aleman said he would not run again, to make way for other candidates like Carlos Raul Piad (his campaign manager),Marco Ameglio (Arnulfista's losing candidate for Mayor of Panama),and Alberto Vallarino (1999 third-party candidate who obtained 17% of the vote). Relations between Moscoso and the latter two, particularly Vallarino, are extremely tense. If Moscoso refuses to loosen her iron grip on the Arnulfista Party, some observers have speculated that Endara (who could not himself return to the Arnulfistas having been expelled) will start a new party, attracting traditional Arnulfistas as he did for the May 2 general election. The four months that remain in Moscoso's presidency might well indicate which way the party will go. What about the Legislature? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although not all results have been tallied, non-official results published on the Electoral Tribunal website (http://www.tribunal-electoral.gob.pa) point to winners in 74 of 78 legislative seats and tendencies for the other four. Incumbents did rather badly. The net results are: PARTY # Legislators -------------- -------------- Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) 36 Arnulfista Party (PA) 18 Solidarity Party (PS) 9 Natl. Liberal Republican Movement (MOLIRENA) 4 National Liberal Party (PLN) 3 Democratic Change Party (CD) 3 Popular Party (PP) 1 ¶6. (SBU) The four remaining seats are in hotly-contested and heavily-populated multi-legislator electoral circuits subject to Panama's complicated proportional representation formula to identify winners. The PRD could win all four remaining seats and thereby gain an absolute majority in Panama's unicameral legislature. Given the Popular Party's poor showing in the legislature, it is in danger of being dissolved if it does not obtain at least 4% of the votes for President as set forth in Panama's Electoral Code. Statistics to confirm the PP's survival or demise are not yet available. (Note: The Popular Party is Panama's former Christian Democratic Party. End Note.) What observers saw -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Embassy Panama's twenty-eight volunteer observers, disbursed throughout the country on May 2, noted a largely orderly and civil process. Like OAS observers and Panamanians working for the Ombudsman's Office and the Catholic Church's Peace and Justice Commission, we saw a record number of Panamanians (approximately 77% of registered voters) turn out to vote. OAS Observer Chief Moises Benamor told PolOff that he considered Panama's electoral process to be exemplary in the region. As they return to the office, Embassy observers are turning in questionnaires that they completed at each voting place about the process. Embassy will analyze the results of the questionnaires to assess the technical aspects of the process. WATT