INDIA WELCOMES AZIZ, FIRST PAKISTANI PM VISIT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007494

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2014
TAGS: PREL ENRG PK IN INDO PAK
SUBJECT: INDIA WELCOMES AZIZ, FIRST PAKISTANI PM VISIT IN
13 YEARS

REF: A. NEW DELHI 7395


B. NEW DELHI 7393

Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (B,D).


1. (C) Summary: India received Shaukat Aziz warmly and at
the highest levels, on the first visit of a Pakistani PM to
New Delhi since 1991. The GOI went out of its way to project
a welcoming message, because of the importance it places on
reconciliation with Islamabad and because it sees Aziz as the
kind of modernizing, pragmatic Pakistani politician India
should bolster. That the two sides were able to restore a
positive atmosphere so soon after PM Manmohan Singh
established clear GOI redlines on Kashmir on November 18 is
important, and is viewed here as a Pakistani climbdown from
the "maximalist" position that President Musharraf projected
in his October 25 "Iftar Musings" proposal. Speaking to the
press after his lunch with the PM, Aziz declared that
"progress on other issues will be made in tandem with
(Kashmir)," implicitly validating the Indian claim that
Islambad had put the brakes on people-to-people ties with a
view to focusing attention on Kashmir. The Pakistani PM
spent more than five hours with four different Kashmiri
separatist groups, separately, and did not succeed in
unifying them, indicating that speculation about their
impending reunification was premature. Like Foreign Minister
Natwar Singh, we expect no miracles from this visit, but it
sets a positive stage for an intense three-week period of
Indo-Pak engagement in December, Round Two of the Composite
Dialogue (CD),culminating in an Indo-Pak meeting at the
SAARC Summit in January. End Summary.

Warm Welcome; Berlin Wall Theme
--------------


2. (C) After Shaukat Aziz went to considerable lengths in
recent days to downplay General Musharraf's criticism of the
GOI redlines on Kashmir that PM Manmohan Singh set out in
Srinagar on November 18 (Ref B),official New Delhi went out
of its way to ensure that Aziz will have a good trip to India
on this, the first visit of a Pakistani PM to New Delhi since
Nawaz Sharif attended Rajiv Gandhi's funeral in 1991. The PM
telephoned Aziz upon his arrival at the New Delhi airport to
welcome him, commenting "who could say some 20 years ago that
the Berlin Wall would be a thing of the past." Singh added
that he "hoped and prayed that we can set in motion a similar
process in this subcontinent," and that he would "sincerely
work to that end." Aziz reciprocated, offering special gifts
to each of his senior hosts.

Most Except Sonia
--------------


3. (C) The Pakistani PM met, or planned to meet, India's
most important politicians and officials, with the exception
of Sonia Gandhi, who became "indisposed" after initial
indications that she would see him, according to a
well-informed Indian journalist. (Comment: Sonia has
consistently declined to meet US and all other high-level
foreign visitors to underline that PM Singh is in charge of
the GOI. End Comment) He saw ex-PM Vajpayee, Leader of the
Opposition LK Advani (who confirmed that he would visit
Pakistan in January),Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar
to discuss the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, Commerce
Minister Kamal Nath, and industrialists from FICCI and CII.
The large size of the Pakistani delegation, which included
six ministers representing many of the substantive areas of
Indo-Pak discord, several Senators, and several top
businessmen, attracted major media attention.

Natwar Singh
--------------


4. (C) The MEA spokesman characterized Aziz's November 23
45-minute meeting with Foreign Minister Natwar Singh as
"friendly, positive and forward looking," and indicated that
the discussion centered around SAARC issues, inasmuch as the
Pakistani PM was in Delhi in his capacity as outgoing SAARC
Chairman, and the importance of showing results in Round Two
of the CD process in December.

Aziz Strikes out with the Hurriyat
--------------


5. (C) As part of Islamabad's continuing efforts to reunite
the warring APHC factions, the Pakistani PM devoted the
entire evening of his first day in Delhi to the separatists,
spending more than five hours with them. Aziz first met with
the moderate group, then JKLF leader Yasin Malik, then JKDFP
leader Shabir Shah, and finally pro-Pakistan hardliner SAS
Geelani. A 30-45 minute dinner followed, at which the
moderate, pro-Pakistan, and pro-independence factions met
together for the first time in more than one year. While
privately annoyed at the meeting and the image of Pakistani
meddling with "India's Kashmiris," GOI officials maintained
public silence on it.


6. (C) APHC leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, who had expressed
optimism to D/Polcouns on November 22 about the prospects of
reunification, expressed disappointment that Islamabad had
acceded to Geelani's demand to remain above and separate from
the rest, and laid the blame for a lack of unity on his
doorstep. The Mirwaiz complained that Aziz had also not
assured them that the Kashmiris would have an immediate role
in the Kashmir-related aspects of the Indo-Pak dialogue,
saying that this would have to come at a later stage. Aziz
also reportedly told them that the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus
would become a reality "soon," that there would be three bus
lines, two from the Valley and one from Jammu, and invited
them to visit Pakistan. None of our interlocutors believed
another Hurriyat meeting with Aziz would take place during
this visit, as some media had reported.

Srinagar-Muzaffarabad Bus
--------------


7. (C) Aziz arrived as the Indian media reported additional
steps the GOI has taken recently to set the stage for an
opening of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road, should the two
sides reach agreement on modalities at the political level
and at technical level discussions on December 7-8 in New
Delhi. India has been resurfacing a 12 km stretch of road
near the LOC which has not been used for several decades,
according to the Indian Express. The GOI has also identified
LOC crossing posts. While the status of a bridge over the
Jhelum River remains unresolved, the GOI has made
preparations to erect a temporary bridge and to remove mines
from the area in the event an agreement is reached. One
newspaper report speculated that India may not insist on
visas for Pakistani visitors, but this contradicts what we
heard from MEA on November 19 (Ref A).


8. (C) Speaking to the press after his lunch with the PM,
Aziz declared that "as regards to Jammu and Kashmir, we
believe this is an issue and we all need to discuss and
adddress (it). Progress on other issues will be made in
tandem with (Kashmir)," implicitly validating the Indian
claim that Islambad had put the brakes on people-to-people
ties with a view to focusing attention on Kashmir.

Pipeline
--------------


9. (C) Although our industry contacts remain skeptical about
a Pakistan gas pipeline, Aziz' meeting with Petroleum
Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar sparked speculation about a
breakthrough there. Pakistani Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokar
was forward leaning, declaring that "we see the gas pipeline
as a major CBM, not just for India and Pakistan, but for the
whole region including Iran." Aiyar, however, pressed for
broader economic rapproachement. Meeting with journalists
over breakfast on November 24, Aziz insisted that granting
MFN status to India was linked to the solution of the Kashmir
issue. MFN status would open up the Pakistan market for
Indian exporters, and would not be considered in isolation,
he stated.
Pakistan Watchers
--------------


10. (SBU) During a November 24 Charge-hosted lunch for
visiting CODEL Bayh, the mood around Indo-Pak relations and
the Aziz visit was generally upbeat, reflecting broader Delhi
atmospherics. However, this sense of cautious optimism was
premised on the assumption that the Pakistani establishment
had now abandoned the "maximalist" position reflected in
Musharraf's October 25 "Iftar musings." Against this
background, the Pakistan experts in attendance counseled
against any talk of final solutions on Kashmir. Under
current circumstances, they argued, the two sides need to
focus on "process, not solutions." Senator Bayh heard a
general consensus that a final breakthrough on Indo-Pak
relations will be possible only when a civilian government is
installed in Islamabad, and on this basis advised a slow but
steady approach.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Like Natwar Singh, we also expect no miracles from
this visit. That the two sides were able to restore a
positive, purposeful atmosphere so soon after PM Manmohan
Singh established clear GOI redlines on Kashmir on November
18 is important. Significantly, Manmohan Singh's insistence
that there can be no territorial changes on Kashmir was
echoed in a November 24 op-ed piece by Prem Shankar Jha, one
of India's most devoted advocates of Indo-Pak rapproachement.
As Jha argued, "Islamabad's treatment of the LOC as Delhi's
maximum position exemplifies everything that Delhi distrusts
most about Pakistan's way of doing business. The only way to
bring lasting peace is to eschew final goals and concentrate
on the process."


12. (C) Aziz spent an unusual amount of time with the
Hurriyat, but his attempts to unify them failed, indicating
that speculation about impending reunification was premature,
and that the divide between the various factions still runs
deep. We expect most observers to judge the Aziz visit a
success, as it launches an intense three-week period of
Indo-Pak engagement in December, Round Two of the Composite
Dialogue (CD),followed by another Indo-Pak meeting at the
January SAARC Summit. Septel will report CODEL Bayh meetings
wiht senior GOI officials.
BLAKE