INDIA RATTLED BY DEVELOPMENTS IN BANGLADESH

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 005734 E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014 TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV BG IN SUBJECT: INDIA RATTLED BY DEVELOPMENTS IN BANGLADESH REF: A. DHAKA 3127 ¶B. NEW DELHI 5486 ¶C. CALCUTTA 350 Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt. Reason 1.5 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Bangladesh watchers in New Delhi have reacted with concern to recent violence there, citing the August 21 attack on opposition leader Sheikh Hasina as symptomatic of a deterioration in the country's political culture, fueling instability in Bangladesh which contributes directly to violence in India's northeast. Home Secretary Dhirendra Singh will raise these issues and others when he travels to Dhaka later in September. In a new twist, some prominent Indian commentators are now blaming the GOI for having an inadequate Bangladesh policy. The Bangladeshi High Commission insists Indo-Bangladesh relations are excellent. End Summary. ¶2. (C) While the April 2 Chittagong arms haul and the attempted assassination of the British High Commissioner in Sylhet, have worried Indian Bangladesh watchers, the August 21 attack on Awami League Leader Sheikh Hasina set off a new round of concern in New Delhi. General (Retd.) Dipankar Banerjee, Director of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) called the grenade attack "a violent manifestation of Islamic extremism," which had grown in Bangladesh. "The Hindu" editorialized that the incident was a result of the BDG's "laissez faire attitude towards extremist groups." Dr. Sreeradha Datta, Associate Fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA) warned us that pervasive lawlessness in many parts of Bangladesh enables extremist individuals and groups to operate outside Dhaka's reach. Bangladesh's Backyard -------------- ¶3. (C) These concerns about extremist groups based in Bangladesh, reiterated by MEA officials during Ambassador Cofer Black's Counterterrorism Joint Working Group meeting (Ref C),are nothing new. What is new is that the GOI may be prepared to engage more directly with Dhaka to tackle some of these issues. During his upcoming September 16-17 trip to Dhaka, Home Secretary Dhirendra Singh will provide to the BDG a list of insurgents' installations, for the sixth time, according to MEA Under Secretary (Bangladesh) Puneet Kundal. He told Poloff the meeting is intended to restart a dialogue on security issues that has been stalled since 2000. Singh will also request the BDG to turn over fugitives the GOI believes have taken refuge in Bangladesh, reportedly including United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) Commander-in-Chief Paresh Barua. The problem, Kundal explained, is that Bangladesh sees India's northeast as its "backyard." New Delhi can take no other approach, Kundal added, except to continue to have talks, biannually between the Border Security Force and the Bangladesh Rifles, and at the Home Secretary level. ¶4. (C) The August 21 attack on Hasina has deepened Indian concerns about the links between Bangladesh-based groups and guerrillas in India's northeast. The group that Indian media reported as responsible for the incident, Harkat-ul-Jehad-I-Islami Bangladesh (HUJI-B),has connections that can be traced to India, according to Delhi-based South Asia Terrorism Portal's SATP.org. SATP reports that HUJI-B is affiliated with the ULFA and runs ULFA camps in Bangladesh as well as sending its own members into West Bengal and Assam. Retired General Banerjee remarked that corruption among India's Border Security Forces facilitates cross-border infiltration. The MEA's Kundal added that there is an "ethnolinguistic homogeneity" among Bangladeshis and Indians in the border area which in combination with Dhaka's desire for "leverage" over New Delhi, contributes to the BDG's unwillingness to limit militant activity (Ref A). Neglecting the Neighbor -------------- ¶5. (U) The Sheikh Hasina incident has prompted a spate of analysis of New Delhi's policy towards Bangladesh by some of India's more prominent foreign policy commentators, with widespread concern that New Delhi's approach has been inadequate. Head of South Asia Studies at Jawarhalal Nehru University (JNU) and strategic affairs writer C. Raja Mohan on August 27 accused the GOI of "drift" in its regional foreign policy. Compared to India's current relationships with Pakistan and China (its "two most difficult neighbors") India's policy on Nepal, Bangladesh, and Maldives suffers from a "lack of sustained attention and a seriousness of purpose." The attempt on Hasina "showcased the gathering storm," in Bangladesh, he wrote. Similarly, Prem Shankar Jha, former editor of the Hindustan Times, wrote of the negative effects on Dhaka of India's "past inaction." The GOI has taken decisions that have profound impacts on Bangladesh, including river interlinking, without consulting Dhaka, which has fostered a deep resentment in Bangladesh about India, Jha argued. ¶6. (C) Echoing Mohan and Jha, the IDSA's Datta argued that New Delhi has contributed to poor ties with Dhaka by not keeping its neighbors happy, and that the countries suffer from a "communication gap." General Banerjee described India's policy towards Bangladesh as "deliberately hands-off," although he noted that the GOI has few alternatives as India cannot interfere in Bangladesh's internal affairs. Wary that India may have to pay a price for that policy, retired intelligence officer Bibhuti Bhusan Nandy charged in a long, two-part September op-ed piece that the NDA looked the other way while minorities became victim to "fundamentalist forces." Bangladesh as a Warning to India -------------- ¶7. (C) Prompted by these events "Hindustan Times" editor Manoj Joshi recently took his analysis of events in Bangladesh a step further asking whether India will go the way its dysfunctional neighbors already have. Joshi argued that the domestic political situation of complete non-cooperation between the two dominant parties in Dhaka has "allowed space for scores of uncontrolled extremist groups." Urging New Delhi to heed the warning sounding from India's borders, Joshi wrote that PM Singh should "make the political-administrative system functional again," lest India go the way of Bangladesh. High Commission: Everything is OK -------------- ¶8. (C) Our contacts at the Bangladesh High Commission (BHC) have consistently maintained that reports of terrorist camps in Bangladesh are "baseless" and "outrageous." Nonetheless, BHC poloff Bodiruzzaman told us on September 2 that while there are temporary irritants in the bilateral relationship, relations are excellent, and Indians and Bangladeshis are "brothers." Hasina's Visit -------------- ¶9. (C) During her late July visit to India, opposition leader Sheikh Hasina was received with nearly all the formalities of an official visit. With the exception of a Hyderabad House reception, which is strictly reserved for heads of state or government, Hasina's trip to India included all the trappings of a state visit, including calls on Manmohan Singh, Foreign Minister K Natwar Singh, and Leader of the Opposition LK Advani, and a dinner hosted by the Foreign Minister. Denying the visit any particular significance, the Bangladesh High Commission's Bodiruzzaman said that such treatment is to be expected and is simply a function of a long and good relationship. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) It is notable that the UPA government that began its term with a strong focus on its immediate neighbors is now facing criticism from respected commentators of doing just the opposite with regard to Bangladesh. Although Prime Ministers Singh and Zia met at the July 31 BIMSTEC Summit, GOI red carpet treatment of Hasina fueled the widely held view here that India simply prefers to deal with the Awami League and does not have the vision to build a constructive relationship with the BNP. While the Home Secretary's visit is high-level, there is no talk of a Foreign Minister's trip to Dhaka until the PM and Natwar Singh travel to Dhaka for the January SAARC Summit. Meanwhile, Bangladesh presents a collection of fears for India, which is worried about the spillover of extremism and anti-Hindu sentiment, the implications of political instability for India's own internal security in the northeast, groups inimical to India operating from within Bangladesh, and the demographic consequences of Bangladeshi migration into India. MULFORD