OMAN FONMIN ON SECRETARY'S ORAL MESSAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUSCAT 002189

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA, NEA/ARPI, NEA/I, NEA/RA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MOPS OPDC ETRD MU
SUBJECT: OMAN FONMIN ON SECRETARY'S ORAL MESSAGE

REF: A. SECSTATE 264697

B. MANAMA 1885

C. MUSCAT 2177

Classified By: Ambassador Richard L. Baltimore III.
Reason: 1.4 (b, d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Visiting NEA DAS Dibble reviewed themes in the
Secretary's oral message with Omani Foreign Minister Bin

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Alawi. Concerning Iran's behavior, the Minister recommended
finding ways to address Tehran's security concerns and
feelings of isolation as an effective means of reducing its
possible nuclear ambitions. Encouraging Iranian WTO
accession could also produce reform momentum. Bin Alawi
reiterated Oman's full support for Iraq and readiness to
receive any visiting officials, but he gave no firm
indication of when its reconstruction pledge might be
fulfilled. The Minister hailed BMENA as contributing to
regional reform despite some lingering differences among the
various states. He underscored Oman's desire for a Free
Trade Agreement as an essential ingredient in expanding the
Sultanate's economy. End summary.


2. (SBU) On December 12, visiting NEA DAS Philo Dibble,
accompanied by the Ambassador and Pol/E Chief (notetaker),
reviewed the substance of ref A oral message from the
Secretary with Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf

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bin Alawi (YBA). Discussion of Oman's support for the
Palestinian Authority and Middle East peace was reported in
ref C.

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Iran
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3. (C) DAS Dibble reviewed U.S. policy views and concerns
about Iran. Echoing his December 5 remarks to DNSA Hadley in
Manama (ref B),YBA observed that it was difficult to talk to
Iran about its nuclear ambitions because Tehran flatly
refuses to acknowledge any. But he feels the political and
military pressures on Iran, particularly as it is now
virtually surrounded by U.S. forces and abuts nuclear-armed
Pakistan, drives its desire for due respect from the
international community. Noting that Iran's nuclear power
industry traces its roots to the Shah's regime, the Minister
argued that Tehran's isolation forces it to resort to dealing
with nations like Russia and North Korea. Easing the
international pressure and finding a way to reassure Tehran
of its security, he believes, would reduce any incentive
Tehran might have to pursue nuclear weapons.


4. (C) The Minister believes the USG needs to make a choice
on the end-game for Iran and how to bring it about.
Washington can rely on either pressure or "process." Given
recent and ongoing conflicts in the region, YBA was adamant
in saying further military strife is not welcome. The only
real choice therefore is resorting to process, i.e. the
peaceful transformation of Iran's government. With 65
percent of Iran's population comprised of young people hungry
for change, promoting Iran's accession to WTO could be just
the device to harness their support and undermine the
foundations of the conservative ruling class. Such an
indirect tactic is particularly apt given the certainty of a
political conservative winning the presidential election in

2005.

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Iraq
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5. (C) YBA reiterated Oman's policy of giving Iraq "all
possible support," saying that he stands ready to receive any
visiting Iraqi officials, be it FM Zebari, President Yawwar,
or others. On the question of disbursing Oman's USD 5
million pledge to Iraq's reconstruction, Bin Alawi excused
Muscat's inaction thus far by complaining that it receives
numerous ad hoc requests from various Iraqi ministers. Oman
wants to keep any contributions "above board," and seeks
reassurance that any donation will be properly coordinated.


6. (C) DAS Dibble underscored the USG's concern over
Al-Jazeera's out-moded and unhelpful coverage of the conflict
in Iraq. YBA expressed confidence that the problem will be
settled as Iraq becomes increasingly stable. He agreed that
Al-Jazeera has "crossed red lines" in its reporting, and that
the phenomenon has spread to numerous other satellite
channels. He cautioned the U.S. to be tactful in how it
addresses its concerns to Qatar, which he believes will be
willing to engage in discussion but will not respond
productively to outright accusations. Should talks fail to
resolve the matter, YBA conspiratorially suggested using
technical means to interfere with Al-Jazeera's satellite
links.
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Political and Economic Reform
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7. (C) Reiterating his preference for the word
"modernization" over "reform," the Minister hailed the BMENA
initiative as worthy progress, despite some differences of
view within the region. Even within the GCC, he noted, there
is a considerable divergence in states' willingness to
embrace change. The USG's commitment not to impose reform
from abroad has not sunk in with everyone, but YBA was
optimistic that the ultimate goals were widely shared despite
differences in pace.


8. (C) On linking reform to Middle East peace, YBA shrewdly
noted that the Arab "man in the street" is far more concerned
with local bread and butter issues than Palestine, but that
the political elites will resort to linkage because, unlike
the choice to pursue real change, they cannot be held
accountable for what happens in the peace negotiations. The
governments choosing that crass ploy made themselves clear in
Rabat. YBA opined that Saudi FM Saud al-Faisal does not
personally believe in the statements he was forced to deliver
in Rabat, but that his speech was reflective of the fact that
Saudi society perhaps is still not yet ready to undertake the
needed reforms.


9. (C) As for the Forum for the Future, YBA thought the first
meeting in New York made it obvious that the business
community had clear notions for a course of action, but that
the civil society groups were far more vague. He feels that
addressing political issues will nevertheless make it easier
to progress in the other areas. Looking at Oman, the
Minister said the country is open and has accorded women full
rights. The economy needs considerably more development,
however, particularly in order to create more jobs for both
sexes. Oman's enthusiasm for Free Trade Agreement
negotiations with the U.S. is driven by that need to develop
further the macro-economy. YBA was adamant that Saudi
opposition to the Bahrain-U.S. FTA would not dissuade any of
the five other GCC members from going forward with the
accords on a bilateral basis.


10. DAS Dibble did not clear this cable.
BALTIMORE