GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES REGIONAL SITUATION WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 001516

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2014
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PTER BA IZ IR
SUBJECT: GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES REGIONAL SITUATION WITH
KING, CROWN PRINCE, DEFENSE MINISTER


Classified by Charge d'Affaires Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Commander U.S. Central Command General Abizaid met
with King Hamad, Crown Prince Salman, and Defense Minister
Khalifa on September 27 to discuss Iraq and the upcoming
elections there, the need for full Sunni participation in the
election, Iranian interference in Iraq, and the situations in
Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The King stated that the United
States had achieved its mission in Iraq and should pull its
forces out of the country as soon as possible after the
elections so that Iraqis could settle their differences
themselves. In contrast with this view, the Crown Prince and
Defense Minister both stressed the need for the U.S. to
remain in Iraq until the security situation was stabilized.
Regarding Sunni participation in the elections, the CP
suggested the U.S. support the launch of a reconciliation
campaign. All the General's interlocutors believed that Iran
represents a great danger in Iraq and in the region. The
Bahrainis stressed the value of the U.S.-Bahrain mil-mil
relationship and look forward to strengthening the bilateral
ties. They believe that Saudi Arabia is making progress in
the fight against domestic militants. End Summary.


2. (C) In meetings September 27 with King Hamad bin Isa Al
Khalifa, Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, and
Defense Minister Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Commander U.S.
Central Command General Abizaid focused his discussions on
the situation in Iraq and the upcoming elections there. He
stated that the United States was committed to remaining in
Iraq as long as necessary, but was working closely with the
Interim Iraqi Government (IIG) to appoint loyal senior
military leaders so that Iraqis could take the lead in
combating the insurgency. Abizaid pointed out the danger of
Iranian meddling in Iraqi internal politics and the downsides
of general Sunni intransigence and hesitation about
participating in the elections. He emphasized continuing
strong U.S. support for Bahrain and defense of the Kingdom.

--------------
Contrasting Advice on U.S. Forces in Iraq
--------------


3. (C) King Hamad stated that the United States had
accomplished its objectives in Iraq, removing Saddam and
settling the WMD issue, and it now should plan to depart Iraq
as soon as possible following the Iraqi elections. He
asserted that Iraqis were now relying upon the U.S. to settle
their differences and offer solutions, thus absolving Iraqis
themselves from any responsibility. This situation was
unhealthy for both the U.S. and Iraq. The King acknowledged
that Iraqis likely would fight each other following an
American departure, but not for an extended period. He said
that if they identified the right leaders, the country could
move in the right direction. While division of the country
was a possibility, this was a matter for Iraqis to decide.
The United States could still maintain a robust presence in
the region, with bases both inside Iraq and in other Gulf
countries, and this would send the strong message that
regional stability and development were strategic U.S.
interests.


4. (C) In contrast with the King's comments, Crown Prince
Salman and Defense Minister Khalifa strongly urged the United
States to remain in Iraq for the foreseeable future. The CP
said that the U.S. should offer comprehensive support for
Iraq - military, economic, and political. He recommended
that the U.S. engage with traditional local power structures,
such as influential tribes in the rural areas. He suggested
that the U.S. had lost an opportunity by disbanding the
former Iraqi military. The U.S. now should be working
closely with the IIG to appoint senior military leaders loyal
to the new government. The Defense Minister said that the
U.S. role was indispensable and that if it withdrew from Iraq
now, there would be civil war the next day.

--------------
Iraqi Elections
--------------


5. (C) The King stressed that elections in Iraq should
proceed as planned, saying "one delay will lead to another."
He cautioned that Iraq is not ready for a "real democracy,"
and the results of completely open elections in Iraq would
not be in the long-term interest of Iraq or the United
States. In his view, Iraq can currently absorb some
democracy, but commitment to true democratic ideals could
take time.


6. (C) The Crown Prince said that the United States should
support the development of a reconciliation program in Iraq
to encourage Sunnis to participate in the elections. The
message should focus on the future and what benefits the
Sunnis would derive from full participation. Abizaid said
that the intimidation power of the Baathists within the Sunni
community was still very strong, and others were looking
toward Zarqawi. The Sunni community had a great opportunity
to move forward, but it could find itself marginalized if
they missed this chance. He warned that any Iraqi choosing
to support Zarqawi and his extremists would become a
permanent enemy of the United States. Defense Minister
Khalifa downplayed the significance of the threat posed by
residents of the Sunni triangle, saying that Iran was
ultimately a much more lethal danger.

--------------
Iranian Meddling In Iraq
--------------


7. (C) The three Bahraini leaders agreed that Iran
represents a great danger in Iraq and the region. The Crown
Prince said that Iran's ideology is that of "horribly
inhumane terrorists" that has no future, resulting ultimately
in "repulsing" people. The Defense Minister commented that
the United States tends to see a difference between the IRGC
and Khatemi, but in his view the two groups have a shared
strategy, the only difference is in their tactics. Abizaid
noted that Iran was playing a more active role in Iraq now
than it did one year ago.


8. (C) The Crown Prince commented that Syria seemed to have
no idea about what was happening on its border with Iraq.
Abizaid indicated that Syria was playing a dangerous game in
Iraq. There were indications that Syria was assisting the
insurgents while the insurgents were cooperating with the
extremists. If the Syrian government did not pay close
enough attention, it might find itself dealing with a
challenge from these same extremists at some point.

--------------
Bahrain As Regional Model
--------------


9. (C) The King emphasized that Bahrain was proud to host
NAVCENT Headquarters and welcomed U.S. visitors to the
Kingdom. Bahrain had implemented a number of political and
economic reforms, and could serve as a model for other Gulf
countries. When Bahraini citizens complain that the country
is not moving in the right direction, the King replies that
they have the option to run for office and argue their point
of view. The King wants to develop institutions independent
of any particular ideology or sect. He asserted that Bahrain
would like to host a meeting of G8 and regional foreign
ministers in January to discuss the Broader Middle East/North
Africa Initiative. He commented that other Arabs had good
words, but Bahrain had good deeds.


10. (C) In response to the General's question, the Crown
Prince said Bahrain would prosecute the four terrorism
suspects. The Ministry of Interior was working hard on the
issue, though the Bahrain National Security Agency and the
Attorney General's office needed to be improved. The CP
noted that under current Bahraini law, the maximum penalty
for conspiracy to commit a crime was three years, and the
suspects deserved to remain in prison much longer than that.
The new draft counter-terrorism law proposed significantly
more severe penalties for conspiracy to carry out terrorist
attacks. The Crown Prince mentioned that the suspect who
fled the courtroom during his hearing in early September
would face additional charges and would be held longer.


11. (C) The Crown Prince cited the strength of the
U.S.-Bahrain bilateral relationship and recognized quick
negotiation of the free trade agreement. He thanked the
military for reopening the DOD Bahrain School. Noting that
his children attend the school, he said he felt confident
that it was safe and secure. He requested that the teachers
be permitted to bring their families back to Bahrain.

--------------
Mil-Mil Cooperation
--------------


12. (C) Regarding military cooperation, Abizaid suggested
that Bahrain develop a capability as a regional center for
excellence, perhaps in simulator training. Defense Minister
Al Khalifa replied that the simulator project was on the
right track but he was not yet ready for a purchase. Abizaid
noted that the U.S. was working with Jordan to establish a
special forces training center, and the Minister stated that
Bahrain holds annual joint special forces exercises with
Jordan and the two sides benefit from the interaction.


13. (C) The Defense Minister expressed great concern about
Iranian ballistic missile developments. Though the Shahab
missile is not accurate, its range, combined with Iran's
focus on a nuclear program, was disturbing. He said Iran is
desperate to have a nuclear weapon, and there needed to be
plans to ensure they do not get it. Abizaid responded that
all options were on the table in dealing with the Iranian
nuclear threat. The United States wanted to work with Gulf
countries to develop a regional ballistic missile defense
system.

--------------
Saudi Arabia Fighting Hard
--------------


14. (C) Regarding Saudi Arabia, the King said that the
government was fighting the terrorists to the best of its
ability. It had waited too long to recognize the threat but
was now dealing with it seriously. The Defense Minister
indicated that Bahrain and Saudi Arabia enjoy excellent
cooperation at the border and are developing closer links for
sharing information. Abizaid told the Crown Prince that many
of the foreign fighters and suicide bombers in Iraq were
Saudi. He worried that as the security situation in Iraq
stabilized, the Saudis would return to their country and
might cause trouble there.

ZIADEH