C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000981

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR EUR/NCE AND EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2014
TAGS: PREL MARR MCAP MOPS SI NATO
SUBJECT: SLOVENIAN MOD GIVES DAS CONLEY DEFENSE REFORM
SNAPSHOT ON THE EVE OF A NEW GOVERNMENT


Classified By: Chief of Mission Thomas B. Robertson for reasons 1.5(b)
and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: DAS Heather Conley engaged high level MoD
officials in a productive dialogue about the current status
and future of Slovenian defense reforms during meetings on 21
October. Both State Secretary Milan Jazbec and State
Undersecretary Uros Krek described the Slovenian commitment
to spend two percent of GDP on defense by 2008 as firm. They
also provided a detailed outline of plans to use those funds
to pursue NATO Force Goals. Krek highlighted the challenge
of training Slovenia's future civilian and military leaders,
but he characterized MoD and SAF morale positively. Krek
also outlined Slovenia's out-of-area troop commitments,
highlighting a Force Goal-focused budgeting process and a
policy not to place national caveats on troops. He
underscored Slovenia's commitment to NATO-led missions by
emphasizing that Slovenia ranks fourth among the Allies in
percentage of active troops deployed abroad. Krek reiterated
the Slovenian policy of participating in a NATO Iraq training
mission only in a third country. Jazbec and Krek provided a
comprehensive snapshot of bilateral defense issues that
describe a baseline for the new Slovenian Government to build
upon when it is formed. END SUMMARY


2. (C) On 21 October, DAS Heather Conley met with MoD State
Secretary Milan Jazbec and State Undersecretary Uros Krek,

SIPDIS
who serves as Director of the Office for Defense Policy.
Jazbec and Krek were accompanied by Mr. Jursa, Head of the
Department of Analysis; Tadej Burger, Head of the NATO
Department; and Aljosa Selan, U.S. Desk Officer. COM, DATT,
and Pol-Miloff joined Conley, who commended Slovenia for its
contributions to ISAF; acknowledged Slovenia's strong
interest in playing a peacekeeping role in its
"neighborhood"; and urged the Slovenes to focus on
complementarity - not competition - as they pursue defense
reforms with an eye to contributing to bo

th NATO and EU-led
operations. Conley then launched what the DATT called one of
the best dialogues he has seen with MoD officials by asking
pointed questions about Slovenian Armed Forces (SAF)
capabilities, the future of Slovenian defense spending, and
the most significant challenges facing the MoD moving forward.

JAZBEC'S OVERVIEW: TWO PERCENT GOAL FIRM UNDER NEW GOV'T
-------------- --------------


3. (C) After introductory remarks highlighting Slovenia's
future as a security player in the Western Balkans and a
positive assessment of SAF professionalization over the past
two years, Jazbec agreed with Conley about the importance of
complementarity. Jazbec also made the point that NATO
membership for Slovenia actually increases the importance of
bilateral relations with the U.S. He said Slovenia will now
have an opportunity to live up to expectations that it will
become a regional leader. With respect to Slovenia's
upcoming Chairmanship of the OSCE in 2005, Jazbec said the
MoD is looking for ways to contribute, particularly in
Southeastern Europe but also possibly in the Caucasus.


4. (C) In response to Conley's question about future defense
spending, in light of the Slovenian commitment to NATO to
devote two percent of GDP to defense by 2008, Jazbec said
Slovenia's "strong commitment" is "firm." He noted that the
commitment would likely be bolstered in the coming weeks when
the strongly pro-NATO center-right parties form a new
Government on the heels of the 03 October national elections.
In response to a question about niche capabilities for use
in the NATO Response Force (NRF) and elsewhere, Jazbec noted
Slovenia's plans to contribute an NBC Battalion for NATO's
High Readiness Forces by the end of the decade, with an NBC
platoon to be in place by January 2005 for the NRF. He
mentioned the further development of the Mountain School in
Pokljuka, highlighted Slovenia's PfP language center, and
identified "communications" as an area of development.


5. (C) When asked about the most significant challenges
facing the MoD, Jazbec responded that "individuals need to
cope on an institutional basis with the challenges NATO
membership brings to Slovenia." (NOTE: Jazbec's comment
probably refers to an on-going dynamic within MoD concerning
the reorganization of the bureaucracy to deal with NATO
integration, as well as the continuing effort to change


individuals' mindsets from a focus on national defense to a
focus on collective security. While the change in mindset
has been mostly successful, MoD still suffers from a shortage
of people to deal with the increased workload brought on by
NATO and EU memberhsip. END NOTE) Jazbec also highlighted
the public diplomacy challenge of translating the day-to-day
support of NATO operations by the GoS into policies supported
by public opinion. He said the GoS learned to work as an
institution to accomplish a similar goal during the March
2003 NATO referendum, but he stressed the need to continue
such work now that Slovenia is a member of the Alliance.
Optimistically, Jazbec noted that - for the first time in its
history - Slovenia will soon have a Prime Minister with a
background in Defense Studies. "Jansa has a very sensitive
ear for these issues... I know this well," he said, inferring
that he is close to Jansa himself. (NOTE: Jazbec said that
he would soon return to the MFA; however, he did not mention
in what capacity. END NOTE)

CONLEY/KREK DIALOGUE: PLANS IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED REFORMS
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Thanking Conley for more than a decade of USG
support, Krek drew attention to what he deemed the most
important component of that support: the training and
education of Slovenia's civilian and military personnel.
Emphasizing the success of the Slovenian defense
establishment in changing the prevailing mindset from one of
territorial defense to a collective defense model, Krek gave
the following rundown of facts and figures before responding
to a series of probing questions by Conley:

-- reduction in the SAF reserves from 71,000 in 1999 to a
projected 5,500 in 2010;
-- obligations of the last conscripted reservists will end
in 2010; and
-- numbers for active duty soldiers as a result of
professionalization: 4,500 in 1999; approximately 7,000
today; and a projected 8,500 in 2010.

He mentioned that Slovenia's new "voluntary conscription
service program" is more successful than the MoD anticipated,
providing three months of paid survival and basic skills
training to young Slovenes considering a career in the SAF or
the reserves. Noting that the MoD finalized its Strategic
Defense Review last February, he said Parliament has approved
a Defense Plan through 2015, to be amended every four years.
MoD has approved a six-year Defense Program, to be amended
every two years. The six-year Program will be submitted for
approval when a new Government is formed.

GOOD MORALE: A "GREEN LIGHT" FOR FURTHER REFORMS
-------------- ---


7. (C) Conley asked how the MoD and SAF are handling all of
the recent changes, and Krek replied that a critical mass in
the MoD supports the defense reforms, saying "there is a big
green light" to move forward. He then shifted focus to the
soldiers on the ground in international operations. Having
just visited SAF troops in Bosnia, Krek said the "motivation
is there" for the units to accomplish their missions. (NOTE:
Krek conspicuously failed to mention the morale of the
General Staff and the SAF military leadership, perhaps
reflecting the frustrations of DefMin Anton Grizold with a
CHOD, Major General Ladislav Lipic, whom he has sometimes
characterized to DATT as slow-moving. DATT has observed
other indications that the MoD civilian staff and the General
Staff are not always "in synch" with respect to the pace of
reforms. END NOTE)

OUT-OF-AREA OPERATIONS: NO CAPS AND NO CAVEATS
-------------- -


8. (C) Conley asked about troops abroad, generally, with
specific follow-up questions about the budgeting process for
out-of-area operations, caps on troop contributions, and
national caveats. Krek said that a budget consistent with
NATO Force Goals, encompassing out-of-area operations, has
been proposed as part of the six-year Defense Program. If
future events necessitate sending a unit out-of-area earlier
than expected, he said the interim two-year review would have
to be adjusted to reflect that reality. Krek said the GoS


had discussed setting a limit on the number of troops they
would send abroad under a "Framework Plan." Current
limitations are budgetary, though, and he said there are no
legislated caps on the number of deployable troops. The GoS
can decide to commit troops for international missions, but
it cannot commit reservists.


9. (C) Krek said he is personally pleased with "a purposeful
policy not to place national caveats" on troop commitments.
There are no caveats on SFOR troops. Certain restrictions
have been placed on SAF troops in KFOR, though, in response
to an earlier situation in which uniformed soldiers in a
Slovenian Multilateral Service Unit (MSU) were used for riot
control procedures that had been proscribed for other
countries' troops. (Conley noted that the KFOR dynamic was a
perfect example of why national caveats are
counter-productive.)


10. (C) Slovenia currently has 237 troops stationed abroad,
according to Krek. That figure will rise to approximately
300 by May 2005. Krek noted the reconnaissance unit and two
firefighters currently deployed with ISAF. He said a
veterinary attachment would be sent to Afghanistan soon and
that the GoS is discussing the possibility of sending two PRT
liaison officers. Slvenia plans to maintain its
participation in ISAF with increases through the end of
2007, he said, noting that the firefighters are committed
through the end of 2006. The SAF platoon of military police
in Kosovo is committed to KFOR through 2006. Slovenia has
contributed a company, two MP platoons and a medical unit to
SFOR. Their contributions in Bosnia will increase with the
EU takeover of SFOR later this year. Starting in early 2007,
Krek said the Slovenes will have a battalion prepared for
deployment within the Balkans.

HOST NATION SUPPORT: DEVELOPING CERKLJE AIRFIELD
-------------- ---


11. (C) Conley asked if Slovenia already has its Host Nation
Support requirements in place, particularly the requirement
for a NATO-designated airfield. Krek responded that "most of
the basics are in place." He also stated that Slovenia will
participate in NATO's "core airfield study" with the focus on
the military airfield at Cerklje. Ceklje requires
improvements before it can be designated a NATO-capable
airfield. Brnik International Airport will, therefore,
remain Slovenia's NATO-designated airfield until 2007.

AIR POLICING: SATISFIED WITH ITALIAN COVERAGE
--------------


12. (C) Krek told Conley that Slovenia is "satisfied with
what is currently in place" with regard to Italian
air-policing. He said the Italians have committed to police
Slovenian airspace for three more rotations and that they
have expressed a willingness to continue even further into
the future. Slovenia has no plans to procure aircraft for
its own air policing missions, said Krek, adding that NATO
had advised them against this because it would endanger
Slovenia's ability to fulfill its Force Goals. Conley said,
emphatically, "Well done! I second that."

PUBLIC DIPLOMACY: NO BUYERS REMORSE
--------------


13. (C) Conley asked Krek to elaborate on the public
diplomacy aspects of being a NATO member and whether Slovenes
had experienced any residual "buyers remorse." Krek framed
his answer in a parliamentary context, noting that the
Defense Plans he mentioned earlier had the political support
of a majority of parties from the outgoing Parliament (which
had its last session on 22 October). Generally, he said he
expects no changes with the new Parliament, emphasizing that
budget figures certainly will not change. Nonetheless, he
said that reaching two percent of GDP for defense spending by
2008 will require "firm discipline" by politicians,
parliamentarians, and the public. He noted that two percent
of GDP today translates into approximately 400 million euros.
By 2010, that figure should equal about 700 million euros,
he said.

TWO PERCENT: A FIRM GOAL


--------------


14. (C) When pushed by Conley on the strength of Slovenia's
commitment to reach the two percent goal by 2008, Krek said
he is "fully confident" it will be met. Within that figure,
though, he stressed the importance of allocating funds
sensibly. For example, he mentioned the goal of reaching a
50/30/20 formula for defense expenditures, with 50 percent of
the budget going for personnel costs, 30 percent for
operations and maintenance, and 20 percent for modernization.
When Conley mentioned that 50 percent for personnel seemed
high, Krek pointed out that current personnel costs consume
64 percent of the Slovenian defense budget. Over the next
six years, Krek said Slovenia would spend around 600 million
euros on modernization, with a focus on achieving NATO Force
Goals, including the development of infantry and NBC
battalions; intelligence gathering capabilities; command and
control; and strategic lift capabilities (both air and sea).

STRATEGIC LIFT THROUGH NATO CONTRACT POOLS
--------------


15. (C) Questioned later by DATT about air and sea lift
capabilities, Krek said that Slovenia already has in place
two strategic lift agreements within NATO. These agreements
are to participate in the NATO contract pools for strategic
air- and sealift. In the event Slovenia were to require
strategic lift, the Slovenes would identify their air or sea
requirements to NATO, where available resources would be
identified and contracted.

TRAINING: THE MOST IMPORTANT CHALLENGE
--------------


16. (C) Krek told Conley that the most important challenge
facing the MoD and the SAF is training personnel,
particularly increasing the number of staff officers who can
operate in an international context and educating both
civilian officials and politicians about defense matters.
Krek, an ICAF alum himself, praised the IMET program in this
regard. He did mention, though, that it is sometimes a
difficult balancing act for the MoD to release its best and
brightest for long-term training when they are needed
desperately in the Ministry.

A SLOVENIAN ROLE IN IRAQ: TRAINING OK IN A THIRD COUNTRY
-------------- --------------


17. (C) Krek steered the conversation toward Iraq, noting
that Conley had not mentioned the issue earlier. He said
Slovenia intends to support a NATO training mission by
providing instructors and/or equipment. Echoing what other
GoS officials have said before, he stressed that Slovenian
instructors would train Iraqis only in a third country, i.e.
neither in Iraq nor in Slovenia. He said the GoS supports
deputing SAF officers to NATO Headquarters. Krek said that
Slovenia is now "completely stretched" with its current
overseas troop commitments. That said, he called attention
to the fact that Slovenia ranks fourth among NATO Allies in
the percentage (approximately three percent) of its troops
committed to out-of-area NATO missions. Canada, Norway, and
Germany outrank Slovenia, he said.


18. (C) Conley said she understands the sensitivities in
Slovenia about Iraq and that the USG would like its allies to
participate. She said the Iraqis have great appreciation for
Slovenian contributions to the reconstruction of Iraq in the
fields of demining, police training, and psychological
assistance to children.

KREK'S QUESTIONS: U.S. BALKANS POLICY AND ISAF/OEF MERGER
-------------- --------------


19. (C) Krek ventured two questions toward the end of the
conversation: he asked for Conley's views on the future
activities of the USG in the Balkans and on the merger of
ISAF and OEF. Conley said the U.S. will remain "very engaged
politically" in the transition process but that it is
"appropriate to allow the EU to assume greater
responsibilities in the Balkans." She expressed optimism
that the transition will be successful despite the withdrawal
of NATO in Bosnia. On the ISAF/OEF merger, Conley said the


Military Committee at NATO would have to look at this and
predicted it would involve a long-term process. She
stressed, though, that efforts are underway to make PRTs in
Afghanistan more robust and to tackle the counter-narcotics
issue.

COMMENT
--------------


20. (C) Conley's knowledge of the issues and incisive
questioning ensured that the meetings at MoD - indeed, the
first meetings in the MoD building for COM - provided one of
the most insightful and comprehensive assessments we have
received to date of where Slovenia stands on defense reforms
and where it intends to go in the future. At the same time,
she delivered the well-received message that the U.S. wishes
to continue strengthening and expanding its bilateral
relationship with Slovenia. The dialogue with Jazbec was
fruitful in providing a general overview of recent reforms.
His comments on the new center-right Government were also of
interest, particularly the suggestion that he has close ties
to Janez Jansa, whom we assume will be the next Prime
Minister. We will watch with interest to see where Jazbec
lands upon his return to the MFA. Krek lived up to his
reputation as the Embassy's most engaged contact in the MoD.
His insight and influence as an analyst of defense policy
have been a direct result of the trust and confidence placed
in him by DefMin Grizold and the IMET training he received at
the National Defense University. Despite imminent changes in
the political leadership of the MoD, we expect Krek to
provide the continuity and working-level leadership that will
be needed at MoD in the coming months. END COMMENT
ROBERTSON


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