TV SLOVENIJA AIRS FIRST UNOFFICIAL DEBATE BETWEEN

UNCLAS LJUBLJANA 000823

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR SI
SUBJECT: TV SLOVENIJA AIRS FIRST UNOFFICIAL DEBATE BETWEEN
PM ROP AND OPPOSITION LEADER JANSA

Sensitive but Unclassified -- Please Protect Accordingly


1. (U) SUMMARY: On 30 August, TV Slovenija broadcast a long-
planned confrontation between PM Anton Rop and opposition
leader and Slovene Democratic Party [SDS] President Janez
Jansa. The two leaders introduced different "diagnoses" of
Slovenia's success in the last four years. Jansa was very
critical of Slovenia's slow development in the fields of
economy and social security. He said the government did not
fulfill several promises, especially on privatization and
health care reform. Jansa did, however, mention some
successful initiatives, highlighting foreign and defense
policy and e-government initiatives in the areas of taxation
and the judicial system. As expected, Rop refuted all
criticism and claimed the government had fulfilled its major
goals. He highlighted economic growth that was 1.5 to 2
percent higher than the EU average. One characteristic
shared by both politicians during the broadcast was an
unwillingness to answer concrete questions raised by the
moderator. END SUMMARY.

JANSA
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2. (U) Jansa began his assessment of the past four years by
focusing on positive accomplishments of the current
government, mentioning foreign policy successes and the
termination of conscription into the Slovenian Armed Forces
(SAF). He said these were issues where the government
"listened to our [Opposition Coalition] proposals". He also
mentioned computerized income tax collection and introduction
of a computerized land register as steps forward.


3. (U) As criticism, Jansa mentioned Slovenia's slow
economic development and delays in privatization that will
prevent the country from catching up with the most developed
countries of the EU within the next ten years. Jansa said
the country's unfulfilled goals could be achieved more
quickly if political changes occur. In the field of foreign
policy, Jansa only criticized Slovenia's policy towards
Croatia, calling for a more active engagement. In this
regard he echoed a proposal by the right-leaning political
forum Assembly for the Republic (AFTR) on creating a joint
Slovene - Croatian commission to deal with border issues. On
a more global scale, Jansa suggested that tensions between
the U.S. and Europe are abating, obviating the need for
Slovenia to take sides between the so-called "New Europe" and
"Old Europe." He said that Slovenia should follow the lead
within the EU of countries like Portugal or Luxembourg, both
of which he says are influential, despite their small size.

ROP
---


4. (U) Rop refuted all criticisms levied against his
Government and said that he is very optimistic about
Slovenia's future development. Regarding the past four
years, he said Slovenian citizens can be proud of results
that represent accomplishments of more than just one
government or a single political party. Concerning economic
growth, he noted that Slovenia had reached its goal of
exceeding the EU average by 1.5 to 2 percent. Rop argued
that the GoS policy toward Croatia is, indeed, active and he
mentioned Slovenia's reliance on its new membership in the EU
to block Croatia's proclamation of an ecological - fishing
zone that would inure to Slovenia's detriment. He also
mentioned positive movement in handling high profile issues
surrounding Ljubljanska Banka and Yugoslav succession.

UNANSWERED QUESTIONS
--------------


5. (U) Both Rop and Jansa dodged certain questions posed by
the moderator. Rop refused to highlight a single mistake of
the Government under his leadership. He just said,
generally, that certain matters could have been carried out
faster and differently. Jansa on the other hand did not
answer a question directly about whether a coalition between
SDS or the opposition Coalition Slovenija (which includes the
center-right Nova Slovenija (NSi)) and Rop's LDS would be
possible. Jansa said that it is good for any country or
party not to hold power continuously. Rop responded that LDS
would not exclude any particular party in advance of election
results.

ELECTION PREDICTIONS


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6. (U) When asked to predict the results of the October 3
national parliamentary election, Jansa said that SDS will be
the strongest party and that - together with NSi - it will
replicate the results of the European Parliament election.
SDS and NSi won four seats in the European Parliament, while
LDS and its left-wing coalition partner United List of Social
Democrats (ZLSD) won only three. Jansa said he would resign
as SDS President if his party does not improve its results
from the 2000 elections. Rop said simply that he expects an
LDS victory and that any other result would be a fiasco.

COMMENT
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7. (U) This televised debate was seen by many Slovenes as
the start of an election campaign season that commences
officially on 3 September. Jansa's criticisms came directly
from the agenda developed by his "shadow cabinet" for
Slovenia's future. The parliamentary interpellation motion
launched by the Opposition Coalition against Rop's government
started August 31. The interpellation motion is widely seen
as a pre-election tool that Jansa hopes to use to his
political advantage.


8. (SBU) Slovene voters are traditionally seen as tending to
vote "against" what they oppose, rather than "in favor" of
what they like. In the past, Jansa has performed well in
election years but has lost support in the immediate lead-up
to election day because of his inability to consolidate the
parties on the right. Jansa's chances to become PM will
increase if he can effect such a consolidation to counter an
LDS that is likely to remain the strongest party in Slovenia.
On the other hand, the big challenge for the LDS will be to
increase voter turnout. Even that might not be enough for
Rop this time, though, if the parties on the right can unify
before the election. END COMMENT.

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