SLOVENIA: CENTER-RIGHT OPPOSTION PARTIES FORM NEW

UNCLAS LJUBLJANA 000599 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: CENTER-RIGHT OPPOSTION PARTIES FORM NEW GROUP WITH MEMBERS OF THE RULING COALITION IN ATTENDANCE REF: A. LJUBLJANA 576 ¶B. LJUBLJANA 597 Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Assembly for the Republic (AFTR) held an inaugural public meeting on 23 June reuniting DEMOS members, drawing like-minded academics, and gathering considerable media attention (ref A). The AFTR continued to press its message for inclusion and national renovation in an attempt to rekindle the spirit of the DEMOS movement, which successfully sought Slovenian independence. Speakers at the AFTR event also accused the ruling LDS party of having been hijacked by a left-wing faction of "vulgar liberals." The presence of FoMin Rupel, who returned to Slovenia via charter plane from London in open defiance of his party's (LDS) ultimatum not to participate, captivated the audience and media present. [NOTE: PM Anton Rop dismissed Rupel the following day. Ref B. END NOTE]. Peter Jambrek, member of the Slovenian Democratic (SDS) Party and newly designated AFTR President; former MP and MEP-elect Alojz Peterle, New Slovenia (NSi); SDS President Janez Jansa; and NSi President Andrej Bajuk, addressed the crowd. Rupel, who was consequently dismissed as FoMin (ref B) for his political realignment with AFTR, will not sail quietly into the night. Furthermore, what he has to say in the coming months about the LDS, and particularly about Rop's leadership of the party, could have broad repercussions in the political frenzy leading up to this fall's parliamentary election. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On 23 June, PDO attended an inaugural public meeting of the Assembly for the Republic (AFTR). The meeting was held in the same venue where former President Kucan's Forum 21 was established, signifying the extent to which the AFTR has modeled itself as a political counterweight and alternative to Forum 21. Borut Pahor, President of the National Assembly, one of the most popular political figures in Slovenia and the leader of junior coalition partner United List, attended the inaugural meeting as a "guest of honor." Tine Hribar, a well-known philosopher, also spoke. AFTR - NOT RIGHT, NOT LEFT, BUT FOR SLOVENIA -------------- ¶3. (U) Peter Jambrek, AFTR President, explained that the Assembly was established as a public forum to discuss the �00A;future of Slovenia as a NATO and EU member (ref A). He explained that the AFTR was an "open forum" for all who wished to join and unequivocally noted that it was neither left-wing nor right-wing. "The purpose of the AFTR is to find an alternative to the current situation in Slovenia and put the country back on the right path." He mentioned that the convening of the AFTR was an attempt to revive the ethos of DEMOS and to gather a like-minded group of politicians and intellectuals to once again set Slovenia on the right path towards democracy. As he put it, DEMOS helped lead Slovenia to independence, democratic rule, and a free market in the late 1980's. A similar organization was now needed to rectify the "grave problems" within Slovenian democracy. Jambrek also pointed out the need to establish a genuinely liberal market economy, calling for lower taxes, open and fair competition, and less interference from the State. ¶4. (U) For his part, Peterle said that the AFTR needed to stay the course of multi-partisanship and commented, "We should stop those that are stopping Slovenia." HRIBAR: LDS AS THE "VULGAR LIBERALS" -------------- ¶5. (U) A visibly nervous Tine Hribar stated that the LDS coalition had led the country into an era of corruption and false democracy, openly calling for the establishment of a new center-right party patterned after DEMOS. He labeled the LDS "vulgar liberals," claiming that the party had perverted the true meaning of liberalism, and described the LDS's style of governance as "Leninist" -- "if you are not with us you are against us." Hribar also spoke of the need to form a center-right party that would work together with the Church, but that would also appeal to middle-of-the-road voters. JANSA: "MEDIA MONOPOLY" -------------- ¶6. (U) SDS's Jansa accused the ruling coalition of having established a "media-financial monopoly" within Slovenia, and claimed that certain opinions "never get printed in our media." He also accused a "left-wing faction" within the LDS of initiating a "culture war" by pitting different sections of Slovenian society against each other. He did say, however, that the participation of Rupel and Pahor in the AFTR - both as representatives of the ruling coalition - boded well for the future and for the establishment of a new political order in Slovenia. MEMBERS OF THE GOVERNING COALITION SPEAK -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Invited as the guest of honor, Pahor was the only governing coalition member besides Rupel to address the group. In his opinion, there is no need to form another version of DEMOS "because there is no radical conflict or break up as there was 14 years ago." He did signal, however, the need for change in the current political situation by stating that more multi-partisanship was needed because there can be no progress without it. [COMMENT: There has been speculation that Pahor's attendance was to provide "political cover" for Rupel, so that Rupel would not be the only governing coalition member in attendance and, therefore, have some added job security. The "cover," obviously, was not adequate, as Rupel's dismissal was announced by Rop on 24 June. END COMMENT. ] ¶8. (U) FoMin Rupel received a noisy welcome as he made it back to Ljubljana in time for the meeting despite the attempts by the LDS leadership to prevent his attendance. Rupel's Nova Revija friends funded a charter plane from London to make sure the FoMin made it back on time. [NOTE: In 1987, a group of Slovenian intellectuals that opposed the Communists gathered around the periodical Nova Revija and advocated abandoning the Communist system and introducing a pluralistic democratic system in an independent Slovenian state. This movement gathered steam and contributed to the creation of the political coalition DEMOS in November 1989. In the first democratic elections in April 1990, DEMOS defeated the Communist successor party and formed the first Slovenian democratic government with Lojze Peterle as PM, Dimitrij Rupel as FoMin, and Janez Jansa as DefMin. END NOTE]. On 21 June, the LDS Executive Council met to debate Rupel's having signed the document establishing the AFTR, and had instructed him not to attend the inaugural meeting. PM Anton Rop, talking on behalf of the party, stated that the AFTR is more of an "Assembly for the [opposition] SDS" which is why the LDS expected that Rupel would refrain from taking part "in meetings that go against the LDS." Rop, however, added that the Executive Council does not have the power to decide on Rupel's fate as minister, a decision that only he and Parliament can decide. PRESIDENT DRNOVSEK'S REACTION TO AFTR -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Earlier in the week, President Janez Drnovsek told the press that he had nothing special to say about Rupel and AFTR and added that too much attention is being paid to it. He also stated that Slovenia is a free country where people can freely express their opinion and freely take part in gatherings of any sort. Finally, he assumed an apolitical stance by asserting that the role of President must remain distanced from political initiatives. [COMMENT: Still, we think that Drnovsek is happy to see a group form to counterbalance his rival Kucan's new Forum 21. END COMMENT.] COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The Assembly for the Republic has not disguised its aspirations to become the focal organization of Slovenia's center-right and the principal challenge to former President Kucan's Forum 21, the biggest alliance of leftist politicians and industrialists. It remains to be seen if the AFTR will remain a temporary alliance of convenience or whether it will crystallize into a genuine political organization uniting parties of the center-right. The association with FoMin Rupel could play a role in determining whether or not AFTR will be successful. The left-of-center media have been highly critical of Rupel and have generally been disparaging of AFTR. The Slovenian daily Dnevnik called Rupel a "capricious and conceited politician" and predicted that he would turn on this new organization like he turned on his current party, LDS. Rupel's dismissal from the government might indicate a stronger identification with AFTR. Furthermore, what Rupel has to say about the LDS, particularly Rop's leadership (or lack thereof) will matter in an election where the political factions (intra and inter party) may seek to redefine their positions. The main question remains, however, whether or not a significant political realignment will occur before the fall national elections and, if it does and the center- right emerges victorious, whether or not its constituent parties will be able to put aside differences and rule successfully. END COMMENT. NNNN