UNCLAS LJUBLJANA 000576

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

FOR EUR DAS CONLEY and EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIAN OPPOSITION FORMS NEW POLITICAL "FORUM",
WITH FOREIGN MINISTER RUPEL A FOUNDING MEMBER

REF: A. LJUBLJANA 547


B. LJUBLJANA 258

Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Hailed as a "brilliant political move" by
some pundits, and criticized by ruling LDS party members for
putting personal gain ahead of the national interest, FoMin
Rupel joined many of his former DEMOS associates in
establishing a new forum dubbed the "Assembly for the
Republic (AFTR)" earlier this week. The decision comes on
the heels of the opposition's unexpected electoral success
during Sunday's European Parliamentary elections, claiming
four out of seven seats. Presented as a non-partisan
democratic institution, the organization is the opposition's
answer to former President Kucan's Forum 21 political action
committee, and represents a concerted push to unseat the
ruling coalition in the upcoming fall elections. Rupel's
decision to join the AFTR, as well as his blunt and public
criticism of his party's leadership (LDS), has attracted as
much attention as the organization's establishment. The
AFTR's formation may reflect the start of a true evolution
of Slovenia's political system in which we could see the
streamlining of political parties and the formation of
clear(er) and more idealogically distinct party platforms.
END SUMMARY.

THE ASSEMBLY FOR THE REPUBLIC (AFTR)
--------------


2. (U) Following its surprising showing at the European
Parliamentary elections (ref A), particularly Nova
Slovenia's (NSi) victory over the senior government
coalition Liberal Democracy Party (LDS), members of the two
major right-of-center parties, the Slovenian Democratic
Party (SDS) and NSi, along with like-minded academics,
announced the establishment this week of "the Assembly for
the Republic (AFTR)." Presented as a non-partisan
democratic institution seeking to overcome the politics of
"polarization" by promoting non-partisan dialogue between
all political parties and Slovenian citizens, the
organization reunites a number of DEMOS members. [NOTE: In
1987, a group of Slovenian intellectuals that opposed the
Communists gathered around the periodical Nova Revija and
advocated abandoning the Communist system and introducing a
pluralistic democratic system in an independent Slovenian
state. This movement gathere

d steam and contributed to the
creation of the political coalition DEMOS in November 1989.
In the first democratic elections in April 1990, DEMOS
defeated the Communist successor party and formed the first
Slovenian democratic government with Lojze Peterle as PM,
Dimitrij Rupel as FoMin, and Janez Jansa as DefMin.
Somewhat ironically, it was Peterle who led NSi to victory
in Sunday's EP election. END NOTE]. See para 9 for a
complete listing of Assembly for the Republic members.


3. (U) In its press release, which was purportedly written
by Rupel himself, the founding members expressed their
concern that "moderate politics" were losing ground to a
more leftist agenda in Slovenia. The night of the EP
election, Rupel offered sharp, on-the-record criticisms of
LDS saying that it had veered too much to the left. The
AFTR's communiqu also noted that its members' biggest worry
was "the use of party connections for financial advantages,
the unscrupulous abuse of capital and positions by cronies,
political intolerance and an appetite for daily publicity
and ratings." Members of the opposition parties, led by
SDS's Janez Jansa and Nsi's Andrej Bajuk, have recently used
extraordinary parliamentary sessions to examine allegations
of corruption and abuse of power by government officials.
The sessions have failed to produce any substantive results.
The AFTR is due to hold its first formal session on 23 June.

THE RIGHT'S OWN VERSION OF KUCAN'S FORUM 21?
--------------


4. (U) In March, former President Milan Kucan formed Forum
21 - a think tank ostensibly established to improve the
decision-making by the country's political, social, and
cultural elites (ref B). Widely regarded as the
establishment's think-tank cum political action committee,
Forum 21 members hold influential government positions and
lead the country's largest companies. In fact, the leading
financial newspaper concluded that Forum 21 members, through
personal or by association with their companies, control


over 60 of the shares traded on the Ljubljana Stock
Exchange. Business representatives are absent from the
AFTR's membership list, but in light of parliamentary
elections this fall, members claimed that "the forum might
turn into a winning coalition of democratic and nation-
building parties."

THE RUPEL FACTOR: REALIGNMENT OF POLITICAL TENDENCIES
-------------- --------------


5. (U) After the EP election results were known, current
FoMin and LDS member Dimitrij Rupel criticized the party's
leadership for pursuing policies that go too much towards
the left, and warned that the governing coalition needed to
"turn the wheel back in the right direction." Two days
later, the press release announcing the formation of the
AFTR was published, with Rupel's signature among the very
first to appear in the document. Political pundits and
insiders have qualified Rupel's move as politically
"brilliant," but critics have countered that the FoMin is a
"big man with small ideas" and principles. PM Rop, who has
had highly public disagreements with Rupel over ministers'
appointments, foreign policy, and party direction, has
limited his comments, likely in an attempt to diminish the
significance of the new forum. [NOTE: After some question
about whether they could be in the same room this week, the
FoMin did accompany Rop to the EU Summit in Brussels. END
NOTE].


6. Anton Rous, Chairman of the junior coalition Pensioners'
Party (DeSus) expressed his indignation over Rupel's
decision, noting that "we will not demand Rupel's dismissal,
but we expect him to step down on his own, and leave his
post so his students might finally see him." (Latter
comment is a reference to Rupel's tenured professorship at
the University of Ljubljana). Borut Pahor, the National
Assembly's Speaker and one of Slovenia's most popular
politicians, noted that "Minister Rupel has a right to
personal judgments." Pahor added that he would not seek
Rupel's dismissal as a coalition party member unless the
relationship between the PM and the FoMin made it impossible
for Slovenia to lead a successful foreign policy. "We will
not interfere in the freedom of individuals, in this case
that of Minister Rupel."

COMMENT
--------------


7. (SBU) The formation of the Assembly for the Republic may
reflect the start of a significant political realignment in
Slovenia. Although the opposition's strong showing in EP
elections set off warning signals throughout the coalition
parties' headquarters, it would be a mistake for the
opposition to interpret the win as a mandate or a shift in
political tendencies. With less than one-third of the
electorate voting, both the incumbent and opposition parties
understand that they will have to energize their core
constituencies and attract the undecided swing vote in the
fall. The AFTR's appeal and influence remains to be seen,
particularly as its resources pale in comparison to Forum
21, which is expected to support LDS. AFTR's challenge will
be to convince average voters that it is a credible
alternative. AFTR will have to attract voters who feel that
the governing coalition has unfairly capitalized on
connections at the expense of the nation as a whole. And,
all this depends on how and if AFTR decides to package
itself for the campaign.


8. (SBU) Rupel's decision to join an opposition group is a
savvy tactical move, likely having been orchestrated for
sometime. Rupel understood that his influence in the LDS
decision-making process had diminished dramatically. The
truth is that factions within his own party have leveled
personal attacks and started legal investigations against
him - investigations which legal experts have stated were
"purely political." Although Rupel kept a low profile
following his scathing criticism of the Government's support
for Zdenka Cerar as Minister of Justice, he resurfaced to
blame the LDS's EP elections defeat on its migration to the
left of the political spectrum. And now, he has signed on
the dotted line to become a member of an opposition forum,
attempting to capitalize on the center-right surge. Rupel
seems to have completely exploited Rop's political
inexperience, and in many ways has humiliated the PM by
somehow maintaining his Foreign Ministry posting while


lambasting the PM's party.


9. (SBU) Although the two principal figures in Slovenian
politics are supposedly above party politics, former
President Kucan and President Drnovsek remain very
significant power brokers. Even though Drnovsek handpicked
Rop to succeed him as PM and as LDS President, the young PM
has developed a much closer relationship with Kucan than
with his mentor. Kucan's Forum 21 is the establishment's
power base, gathering a number of former Communists and
CEO's of state-owned companies. On the other hand, the AFTR
will attempt to establish its credibility by linking the
current struggle to the past, when DEMOS pushed for an
independent and democratic Slovenia. We don't know the
level of Drnovsek's involvement in the formation of the
AFTR, but we certainly can see him sympathizing with its
stated objectives. END COMMENT.

ASSEMBLY OF THE REPUBLIC MEMBERS
--------------


10. (U) The following are the members of the Assembly of
the Republic and their professions:

-- Dimitrij Rupel, current FoMin; former Slovenian
Ambassador to the U.S.; FoMin during DEMOS government.

-Barbara Brezigar, recently confirmed as Slovenia's
Representative to Eurojust, an EU institution focusing on
legal matters; 2002 presidential election runner-up as an
independent; served as a prosecutor for 20 years.

-Peter Jambrek, Vice President of the Expert Council of SDS;
former Constitutional Court Judge; Minister of the Interior
in Bajuk's six-month government; former DEMOS member.

-Niko Grafenauer, editor of Nova Revija, an alternative
press publication that works to develop civil society in
Slovenia; former DEMOS member.

-Janez Jansa, President of SDS and DefMin from 1990-1994;
former DEMOS member.

-Andrej Bajuk, President of NSi; PM for six months in 2000.
Born and raised in Argentina as a Slovenian expat, but now a
Slovenian citizen, he received his BA and MA in Argentina as
well as an MS and PhD from the University of California,
Berkeley. He worked for the Inter-American Development Bank
in Washington, DC from 1975-1994 and in Paris from 1994-

2000.

-Drago Jancar, writer and publicist; former DEMOS member.

-Mr. Tine Hribar, Professor of Philosophy and member of the
Academy of Science and Art (SAZU); former DEMOS member.

-Bostjan Zeks, President of SAZU and former professor at the
Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Ljubljana.

-Frane Adam, Head of the Center for Theoretical Sociology at
the Faculty of Social Sciences at University of Ljubljana;
vocal political adversary of Forum 21 member Niko Tos.

-Viktor Blazic, writer/publicist, mostly for Nova Revija.

-Drago Demsar, attorney who defended Janez Jansa and three
others in case brought against them by the Yugoslav Army.
In 1988, Jansa was working for the popular magazine Mladina
and was accused and convicted by the Yugoslav Army for
disclosing an army plan of attack on Slovenia. After Jansa
and the other three were arrested, Slovene civil society
organized a Human Rights association and demonstrated for
their release. This case furthered the push for Slovenian
independence. He was also a member of DEMOS.

-Tone Jerovsek, ex-Constitutional Court Judges and member of
Bajuk's Government (2000); professor at the Law Faculty,
University of Ljubljana; former DEMOS member.

-Lovro Sturm, ex-Constitutional Court Judge and member of
Bajuk's Government (2000); professor at the Law Faculty,
University of Ljubljana; former DEMOS member.

-Grega Virant, State Secretary at the Ministry of Interior,
in charge of governmental administrative reform; professor


at the Slovenian Police Academy.

-Matjaz Sinkovec, Slovenian Ambassador to NATO in Brussels;
SDS party member who was very public about his pacifism;
former DEMOS member.

-Ivan Stuhec, member of the Secretariat of the Slovenian
Bishop Conference.

-Dane Zajc, poet; former DEMOS sympathizer and contributor.

-Aleksander Zorn, editor at Mladniska knjiga, the largest
publishing house in Slovenia.

-Ivo Urbancic, member of the Managing Board of Slovenska
Matica, a literary society which focuses on philosophy and
the preservation of Slovenian culture.

-Ljubo Sirc, economist, LDS's candidate for President of the
Republic in 1992, head of the Centre for Research into
Communist Economies in London.

-Vasko Simoniti, professor of history at University of
Ljubljana and organizer of Brezigar's presidential campaign
in 2002.

-Mr. Andrej Rahten, Vice President of the Slovenian Pan-
European Movement which connects members of the Slovenian
Diaspora.

-Dean Komel, philosopher.

-Matej Makarovic, professor of Sociology at the Faculty of
Social Sciences at University of Ljubljana.

-Sasa Slavec, profession unknown.


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