OPPOSITION ROUNDUP: WHO'S WHERE IN OPPOSITION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000910

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR MI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ROUNDUP: WHO'S WHERE IN OPPOSITION

REF: A. LILONGWE 798


B. LILONGWE 488

C. LILONGWE 493

D. LILONGWE 38

E. LILONGWE 270

F. LILONGWE 559

G. LILONGWE 895


1. (SBU) Since the May 2004 presidential and parliamentary
elections, the landscape of opposition politics has changed.
Political parties and national politics remain focused on
individuals, but many of those individuals now have their own
parties. While not necessarily breaking down the strong
regionalism that exists in Malawian politics, the
representation of several parties in Parliament creates a
much less stable working majority in the House. With
President Mutharika's support waning in his own United
Democratic Front (UDF),balancing opposition and ruling party
politics is becoming more difficult, as evidenced by the
current budget debate (reftel G). The following details the
alliances of principle opposition figures.

John Tembo: President of the Malawi Congress Party
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2. (SBU) Winning the second most votes in the 2004
presidential elections with twenty-seven percent of the
popular vote, Malawi Congress Party (MCP) President John
Tembo is Leader of Opposition in Parliament, and since the
elections he has settled comfortably into that role. The
MCP, with more seats in the House than any other political
party, is also the most stable voting block. Tembo and the
MCP have supported the Mutharika administration on some
initiatives, such as some of the President's controversial
appointments, but they have also been a meaningful opposition
to important government issues, such as the budget. At
present, Tembo is the party president with the most control
over his party, and the MCP is the most unified party.

Gwanda Chakuamba: President of the Republican Party
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3. (SBU) After coming in third in the presidential elections
and mounting a brief legal challenge to Mutharika's win,
Gwanda Chakuamba and his Republican Party (RP) formed an
alliance with the UDF (reftel B). Chakuamba, who promised he
would retire from politics if he did not win as the
Mgwirizano Coalition's presidential candidate and who does
not have a seat in the House, has thus far kept his word.
The media generally speculate that Chakuamba was willing to
ally his party with the UDF and drop the court case because
the GOM agreed to pay Chakuamba an outstanding settlement
from his imprisonment under the Banda regime. Newly
appointed Attorney General Ralph Kasambara announced recently
that the GOM plans to appeal the court's decision to award
Chakuamba MK 56 million (USD 520,000) in restitution. If
government pursues the appeal, RP, which is the largest party
after the UDF in the UDF's working majority, will likely
return to the opposition ranks of the House.

Chakufwa Chihana: President of the Alliance for Democracy
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4. (SBU) For unilaterally deciding to back the UDF and
Mutharika in the 2004 elections, Chakufwa Chihana has become
largely unpopular in his former Northern Region stronghold,
and his Alliance for Democracy (AFORD) party won less than a
third of the parliamentary seats it had in 1999. Chihana has
recently made unsuccessful attempts to re-gain favor in the
North and among AFORD break-away party Movement for Genuine
Democracy (MGODE) MPs. After his short stint as Second Vice
President and Minister of Agriculture at the end of President
Muluzi's second administration, Chihana, still Minister of
Agriculture, is aging, and concern about his pension is the
likely cause of his current faithfulness to the UDF.
Chihana's fickle political nature and unilateral
decision-making have decimated the usually very solid
Northern Region voting block that AFORD once controlled.

Sam Kandodo Banda: President of Movement for Genuine Democracy
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5. (SBU) Sam Kandodo Banda, former AFORD heavyweight, led the
internal AFORD faction displeased with Chihana's leadership
to form the Movement for Genuine Democracy (MGODE). More so
than other parties, MGODE has focused on developing internal
party structures, and it has gained some grassroots support
in the North Region as the viable alternative to AFORD.
Shortly after the elections, MGODE formed an alliance with
the UDF and received a minor ministerial position (reftel C).
Kandodo Banda, though not a parliamentarian or minister, is
recognized as the party's leader, and the party is poised to
gain influence in the Northern Region.

Aleke Banda: President of People's Progressive Movement
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6. (SBU) Aleke Banda, former UDF stalwart and Minister in
both of President Muluzi's administrations, became the de
facto head of the Mgwirizano Coalition when Chakuamba left
the coalition to support the UDF. Banda, who had been the
Coalition's vice presidential candidate, was elected the
President of People's Progressive Movement (PPM) after he
left the UDF (reftel D). He and PPM remain strongly
anti-UDF. Reduced from its original strength of seven
parties, the Mgwirizano Coalition currently comprises five
parties and controls a handful of seats in Parliament.
Taking the mantle from Chakuamba, Banda continues to pursue
the legal challenge of the elections, though legal hurdles
and questionable evidence have dogged the process.

Brown Mpinganjira: Re-Joined the United Democratic Front
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7. (SBU) The once right-hand man of former President Bakili
Muluzi, Brown Mpinganjira, who in 2001 formed the aggressive
anti-UDF opposition pressure group cum political party the
National Democratic Alliance (NDA),has re-joined the UDF
after garnering few votes in the 2004 presidential elections.
Disgruntled members of the NDA have tried to re-vitalize the
opposition group, but the efforts have had little traction.
Mpinganjira, seeing his political future better served in the
UDF, no doubt eyes the party's presidential candidacy for
2009, as many believe the UDF will not allow President
Mutharika to contest for a second term. (reftel A)

Hetherwick Ntaba: President of New Congress for Democracy
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8. (SBU) Former MCP heavyweight Hetherwick Ntaba, who created
the New Congress for Democracy (NCD) party to stand as a
presidential candidate, earned himself a ministerial position
just before the elections for pulling out of the presidential
race and supporting the UDF (reftel E). In Mutharika's
administration, Ntaba was appointed Minister of Health and is
largely viewed as a UDF sellout. He is contesting the
election results in his constituency, where he was defeated
by an MCP candidate.

COMMENT
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9. (SBU) The UDF's working majority in Parliament is fragile,
and it does not help that it was orchestrated by UDF chairman
Bakili Muluzi, not President Mutharika (reftel F).
Maintaining that working majority will largely depend on how
the individuals listed above are treated by the UDF. If
Mutharika continues to neglect the necessary political
housekeeping, he will either find himself without a working
majority in Parliament or dependent on Muluzi to garner
support from opposition leaders.


10. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED. National politics continue to
focus on individuals, rather than ideologies. And, while
there are more political parties represented in Parliament,
support for those parties remains largely along regional
lines: the UDF in the Southern Region; the MCP in the Central
Region; and AFORD, PPM, and MGODE in the Northern Region.
END COMMENT.
RASPOLIC