OPPOSITION LEADER JUMPS SHIP; JOINS WITH RULING

UNCLAS LILONGWE 000488

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR MI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER JUMPS SHIP; JOINS WITH RULING
PARTY

REF: A. LILONGWE 473


B. LILONGWE 449

C. LILONGWE 457


1. (SBU) Summary: In an act of breathtaking (though not
surprising) opportunism, opposition leader Gwanda Chakuamba
has allied himself with newly-elected president Bingu wa
Mutharika and the United Democratic Front (UDF) party. The
UDF believes the addition of the 19 parliamentary seats
Chakuamba brings with him will enable the party to forge a
working majority in the National Assembly. Chakuamba, a
bitter loser in the May 20 presidential elections, has agreed
to drop his legal petition to have the election results
declared null and void. President Mutharika, who just last
week told donor chiefs of mission that Chakuamba was a "thug
and a liar" will no doubt make room in his cabinet for his
erstwhile opponent. With a coalition now formed, Mutharika
is expected to announce his cabinet imminently. End summary.


2. (U) Opposition party leader and former presidential
candidate Gwanda Chakuamba on June 3 quit the seven-party
opposition coalition he headed to ally himself with the
ruling UDF. The move fractures the opposition, leaving
Mgwirizano Coalition vice president (and former UDF
heavyweight) Aleke Banda as the new leader of a significantly
weakened five-party coalition.


3. (SBU) After its dismal performance in parliamentary
elections, the UDF began courting opposition party leaders in
order to create a majority coalition in parliament (reftel
A). Former president Bakili Muluzi, who is chairman of the
UDF, hosted Chakuamba at his residence in Blantyre on May 31
and made an offer Chakuamba eventually accepted. Though
details are not known, there is widespread speculation that
Chakuamba was offered a cabinet position, a large sum of
money, and perhaps a house in Lilongwe. There is also
speculation that Chakuamba will soon retire from politics.


4. (SBU) Chakuamba's Republican Party controls 16
parliamentary seats; the Movement for Genuine Democratic
Change (MGODE),which is also breaking ranks with the
coalition to join the UDF, has three seats; and the UDF
currently has 49 seats, plus is in partnership with AFORD and
the Congress for National Unity with a total of seven more
seats. This still leaves the UDF short of the 97 seats it
needs to have a majority in the 193-seat assembly, but it
believes it will easily be able to secure the support of most
of the 38 newly-elected independents. The new parliament is
to convene June 7-8, and the exact size and composition of
the UDF's coalition will be clear then.


5. (SBU) Before election results were announced on May 23,
Chakuamba proclaimed himself the victor. After results
indicated he had actually placed third, Chakuamba with his
Mgwirizano Coalition filed suit to declare the presidential
election results null and void (reftel B). As a condition of
the alliance, Chakuamba has agreed to drop his legal
challenge, though the case may proceed with Banda acting in
Chakuamba's place.

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COMMENT
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5. (SBU) Chakuamba is already being heavily criticized by
supporters for his "betrayal." He will no doubt try to
convince them that he agreed to participate in a coalition
with the UDF for their benefit. The UDF's extension of a
political olive branch to former arch-enemies is less a
gesture of good will than an attempt to resume control, and
the parliamentary implications are yet unclear. What is
clear is that Chakuamba, who seems genuinely to believe he
was going to win the presidential elections, decided he would
rather be on the inside looking out. Mutharika, whose
contempt for Chakuamba was visceral just last week when he
told donor chiefs of mission that the opposition leader was
"greedy and crazy," (reftel C) is learning that politics
(especially when orchestrated by former president Muluzi)
makes strange bedfellows.


6. (U) Comment continued: We expect an imminent announcement
of Mutharika's cabinet -- if not today, then before
parliament convenes on June 7. End comment.
DOUGHERTY