OPPOSITION LEADER JUMPS SHIP; JOINS WITH RULING

UNCLAS LILONGWE 000488 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2014 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR MI SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER JUMPS SHIP; JOINS WITH RULING PARTY REF: A. LILONGWE 473 ¶B. LILONGWE 449 ¶C. LILONGWE 457 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In an act of breathtaking (though not surprising) opportunism, opposition leader Gwanda Chakuamba has allied himself with newly-elected president Bingu wa Mutharika and the United Democratic Front (UDF) party. The UDF believes the addition of the 19 parliamentary seats Chakuamba brings with him will enable the party to forge a working majority in the National Assembly. Chakuamba, a bitter loser in the May 20 presidential elections, has agreed to drop his legal petition to have the election results declared null and void. President Mutharika, who just last week told donor chiefs of mission that Chakuamba was a "thug and a liar" will no doubt make room in his cabinet for his erstwhile opponent. With a coalition now formed, Mutharika is expected to announce his cabinet imminently. End summary. ¶2. (U) Opposition party leader and former presidential candidate Gwanda Chakuamba on June 3 quit the seven-party opposition coalition he headed to ally himself with the ruling UDF. The move fractures the opposition, leaving Mgwirizano Coalition vice president (and former UDF heavyweight) Aleke Banda as the new leader of a significantly weakened five-party coalition. ¶3. (SBU) After its dismal performance in parliamentary elections, the UDF began courting opposition party leaders in order to create a majority coalition in parliament (reftel A). Former president Bakili Muluzi, who is chairman of the UDF, hosted Chakuamba at his residence in Blantyre on May 31 and made an offer Chakuamba eventually accepted. Though details are not known, there is widespread speculation that Chakuamba was offered a cabinet position, a large sum of money, and perhaps a house in Lilongwe. There is also speculation that Chakuamba will soon retire from politics. ¶4. (SBU) Chakuamba's Republican Party controls 16 parliamentary seats; the Movement for Genuine Democratic Change (MGODE),which is also breaking ranks with the coalition to join the UDF, has three seats; and the UDF currently has 49 seats, plus is in partnership with AFORD and the Congress for National Unity with a total of seven more seats. This still leaves the UDF short of the 97 seats it needs to have a majority in the 193-seat assembly, but it believes it will easily be able to secure the support of most of the 38 newly-elected independents. The new parliament is to convene June 7-8, and the exact size and composition of the UDF's coalition will be clear then. ¶5. (SBU) Before election results were announced on May 23, Chakuamba proclaimed himself the victor. After results indicated he had actually placed third, Chakuamba with his Mgwirizano Coalition filed suit to declare the presidential election results null and void (reftel B). As a condition of the alliance, Chakuamba has agreed to drop his legal challenge, though the case may proceed with Banda acting in Chakuamba's place. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Chakuamba is already being heavily criticized by supporters for his "betrayal." He will no doubt try to convince them that he agreed to participate in a coalition with the UDF for their benefit. The UDF's extension of a political olive branch to former arch-enemies is less a gesture of good will than an attempt to resume control, and the parliamentary implications are yet unclear. What is clear is that Chakuamba, who seems genuinely to believe he was going to win the presidential elections, decided he would rather be on the inside looking out. Mutharika, whose contempt for Chakuamba was visceral just last week when he told donor chiefs of mission that the opposition leader was "greedy and crazy," (reftel C) is learning that politics (especially when orchestrated by former president Muluzi) makes strange bedfellows. ¶6. (U) Comment continued: We expect an imminent announcement of Mutharika's cabinet -- if not today, then before parliament convenes on June 7. End comment. DOUGHERTY