ELECTIONS SPLINTER PARLIAMENT, EXPOSE UDF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000450 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON PINR MI SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SPLINTER PARLIAMENT, EXPOSE UDF WEAKNESSES REF: A. LILONGWE 404 ¶B. LILONGWE 438 AND PREVIOUS Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Low voter turnout, a splintering of parties in Parliament, an unprecedented number of independent parliamentary victors, and the failure of eleven former cabinet members to win in the elections on May 20 showed an electorate deeply dissatisfied with the status quo. While the majority (of those who bothered to turn out) voted against the UDF, it retains the presidency. Building a parliamentary majority is the UDF's immediate challenge, and how the party attempts to meet that challenge will tell much about President Mutharika's standing among party leaders and with the opposition. End summary. Voter Turnout Sharply Down; Majority Votes Against Winner -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Despite long lines early on polling day, only 54% of Malawi's 5.7 million registered voters turned out for presidential and parliamentary elections on May 20. That stands in sharp contrast to the last presidential elections in 1999, when 92% of registered voters cast ballots. ¶3. (U) As reported in ref B, the ruling United Democratic Front's (UDF) Bingu wa Mutharika was declared the winner of presidential elections with 35% of the vote. More than two-thirds of votes went to opposition candidates, but they were split four ways. The closest candidate, John Tembo of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) received 27% of the vote, and Mgwirizano Coalition/Republican Party candidate Gwanda Chakuamba came in a close third with 26%. Number of Parties in Parliament Jumps -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The year-long splintering of political parties that had marked the run-up to the elections (ref A) was reflected in the polls, and the number of parties represented in the National Assembly has jumped from four to nine. With victories in 59 constituencies, the MCP won an (at least initial) plurality in the 193-seat legislature. It was followed by the UDF (49),the Republican Party (16),the National Democratic Alliance (8),the Alliance for Democracy (6),the Movement for Genuine Democratic Change (3),the People's Transformation Party (1),and the Congress for National Unity (1). Thirty-eight independents also won seats, and six seats remain vacant awaiting by-elections. (Note: Parliamentary victories by President Mutharika and Vice President Chilumpha will result in two more by-elections, which will likely be re-won by the UDF.) ¶5. (SBU) The results somewhat exaggerate the ruling party's parliamentary losses, because many of the 38 independent candidates had originally wished to stand for the UDF. Despite their apparent popularity at the district level, many of these aspirants were pushed aside by favorites of the UDF's senior leadership and had to run as independents. At least one has already announced that she will return to the UDF fold, and others are being heavily courted. ¶6. (SBU) At the party-level, the Alliance for Democracy (AFORD) suffered the worst losses, dropping from the 33 seats it won in 1999 to six. AFORD President Chakufwa Chihana's 2003 decision to ally himself with former President Muluzi and the UDF broke the former powerhouse of the northern region into a rump AFORD and the opposition Movement for Genuine Democratic Change (MGODE). Voters apparently also deserted AFORD for the Republican Party (RP) and the People's Progressive Movement (PPM). ¶7. (U) The National Democratic Alliance, which broke away from the UDF in 2000 to become a "pressure group," solidified its standing in parliament with eight victories. Four of those victories came in the southern district of Mulanje, home of NDA presidential candidate (and returning parliamentarian) Brown Mpinganjira. Singer-turned-NDA candidate Billy Kaunda also won his seat. ¶8. (U) Other notable parliamentary victors included independent presidential candidate (and former vice president to Muluzi) Justin Malewezi, Mgwirizano Coalition vice presidential candidate Aleke Banda (a former UDF minister and founder who had defected from the party),and former President Muluzi's son Atupele. Former UDF/AFORD/NCD Cabinet Members Fall -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Eleven former cabinet members and several other UDF/AFORD alliance heavyweights fell during the elections. Former cabinet members who lost their parliamentary seats included Sam Mpasu (Minister of Commerce),Mary Banda (Minister for HIV/AIDS),Monjeza Maluza (Minister of Home Affairs),Phillip Bwanali (Minister of Sports, Youth, and Culture),Wallace Chiume (Minister of Tourism),Salim Bagus (Minister of State for Local Government),Heatherwick Ntaba (Minister of Mining and Energy),Chipimpha Mughogho (Minister without portfolio),James Chikwenga (Deputy Minister of Transport and Public Works),Sebastian Chikhadza (Deputy Minister of Health),and Khwauli Msiska (Deputy Minister of Finance). Other notables who failed in their electoral bids were Enock Chihana (son of AFORD President Chihana and an official in Muluzi's Office of the President and Cabinet) and the UDF Secretary General Kennedy Makwangwala. Friday Jumbe, who had been Minister of Finance but had not been a parliamentarian, won his constituency. ¶10. (U) Flamboyant former Minister of Water Dumbo Lemani, speaking in an impromptu press conference on May 23, called for all former UDF heavyweights who had lost their seats to resign from the party's National Executive Committee. UDF spokesman Ken Lipenga later qualified Lemani's statements, however, saying they were not the views of the party. Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Lemani, an inner-circle hack of former President Muluzi, was ingratiating himself to Mutharika with his call for UDF losers to resign, but his demand illuminates the difficulties the party faces. The sharp drop in voter turnout, the splintering of Parliament, the unprecedented victories of closet UDF and other independent candidates, and the fall of many former cabinet members all point to a UDF leadership out of touch with the voters and an electorate deeply dissatisfied with the status quo. Many voters feel that it is they who lost the elections. Re-fashioning and re-orienting the UDF leadership to that reality will be a major challenge for Mutharika -- if the hand-picked successor to Muluzi is up to the challenge. ¶12. (SBU) Comment continued. More immediately, the UDF is focused on trying to build a working majority in the National Assembly, and party operatives are already wooing independent parliamentarians. Most of the independents will return to the UDF, but their renewed loyalty will be costly, as would an alliance of convenience with one of the opposition parties. How the party's need to co-opt parliamentarians is balanced against Mutharika's stated goal of reducing the country's bloated cabinet will tell much about the future of the UDF, Mutharika's standing in the party, and the promise of the new government for the average voter. DOUGHERTY