RULING PARTY REBELS RATCHET UP RHETORIC, BUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 001086 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/S, INR/AA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR MI SUBJECT: RULING PARTY REBELS RATCHET UP RHETORIC, BUT BINGU'S SUPPORT STAYS STEADY REF: LILONGWE 1035 ¶1. (U) Summary: Members of the United Democratic Front (UDF) have become more outspoken in their criticism of President Bingu wa Mutharika, widening the split in the party. The UDF executive committee has punished ministers close to Mutharika, taking away party positions and perks. Despite this very public dispute, President Mutharika's public support remains strong. End summary. Getting Louder and Nastier -------------- ¶2. (U) The split in Malawi's ruling United Democratic Front became more pronounced this week with the announcement by a national executive committee member, former minister and Muluzi loyalist Dumbo Lemani, of alleged fraud in the May 20 election that brought President Mutharika to power. Lemani claims to have information from UDF senior official Humphrey Mvula (who is currently in jail awaiting trial on murder and corruption charges) that Mvula arranged to have 362,000 votes diverted to the UDF in Mutharika's favor. Lemani claims that Mvula is prepared to give the evidence in court, as testimony in an ongoing suit brought earlier this year by the opposition Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and Mgwirizano Coalition, which contested the election results. (Note: A swing of just over 160,000 votes from Mutharika to MCP candidate John Tembo would give the Presidency to Tembo. End note.) ¶3. (U) The revelation follows several weeks of escalating rhetoric from pro-Muluzi UDF members who resent what they see as Mutharika's increasing independence from the party and lack of sufficient deference to Muluzi. Much of their anxiety is caused by the arrest of former officials of Muluzi's government. Muluzi loyalists have been loudly complaining in the media that the GOM is on a political witch-hunt. Some have even asked the Malawi Human Rights Commission to investigate the government's tactics. ¶4. (U) At the same time, the UDF executive committee has targeted several ministers who are know to be close to Mutharika, stripping them of their party positions and privileges. These include Information Minister Ken Lipenga, Foreign Minister George Chaponda, Education Minister Yusuf Mwawa, Home Affairs Minister Uladi Mussa, and Gender Minister Joyce Banda. In the case of Banda, the UDF very publicly took away her party vehicle, saying that she was too active in organizing women in favor of government policies. Attacks Not Having the Desired Effect -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Despite weeks of increasing criticism from the disgruntled UDF members, President Mutharika remains politically popular and is carrying forward his agenda. The Malawian public remains very supportive of Mutharika's ant-corruption campaign, and is satisfied to see the arrests of certain former Muluzi ministers who were widely perceived to be engaged in unsavory activities. As one high-level contact told us this week "no one feels sorry for these guys." ¶6. (SBU) Mutharika himself appears to be taking the high road in all of this. He has not responded to these attacks, nor have his ministers. The actions by the UDF to strip key ministers of their party positions was met with very little public comment by those affected. In several public appearances in the past week the president has appeared relaxed and confident. He appears to be concentrating on the business of governing, and not allowing himself to be pulled into petty party squabbles. Broadening the Base -------------- ¶7. (U) Mutharika has met recently with a number of difference constituencies such as university students and workers, in high-profile public appearances, in an apparent effort to broaden his political base and emphasize that he is the president of all Malawians, not just members of the UDF. A speech to students at Chancellor College generated much positive media coverage and favorable editorials for having the courage to take on a university audience. ¶8. (U) The president has built a de facto coalition with the opposition, based on his "zero tolerance" anti-corruption stance and fiscal conservatism, that is holding very well. The opposition parties have not been very critical of his policies. Only in the past two weeks have there been some noises from the opposition that their support has limits, and that they expect to see results soon, particularly in the area of corruption. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Despite these strident attacks, Mutharika continues to gain support with the wider Malawian public. He has plenty of political capital, but the goodwill cannot last forever. To maintain public confidence, Mutharika must gain successful convictions in at least some of the high-profile corruption cases that are currently awaiting trial. Failure to achieve that could endanger much of his reform program and signal opposition politicians to seek stronger leadership elsewhere. For the time being, though, Mutharika is the strongest player in the game, and both the opposition and most of the UDF continue to follow him. GILMOUR