NIGERIA: SOUTHERN SNAPSHOTS - MARCH 2004

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000637 SIPDIS LONDON FOR GURNEY, PARIS FOR NEARY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PINR NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SOUTHERN SNAPSHOTS - MARCH 2004 REF: A) LAGOS 562 B) LAGOS 296 C) 2003 LAGOS 2187 AND PREVIOUS "It wasn't me...or maybe it was." ¶1. (U) Continuing its losing ways, the Alliance for Democracy Party (AD) lost another challenge to the April 2003 elections that gave the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) five of the six southwestern gubernatorial offices AD had held since 1999. ¶2. (U) Immediately after the elections, the AD had brought suit in the Elections Tribunal charging that newly elected PDP Ekiti State Governor Peter Ayodele Fayose had presented false credentials to the State Independent Election Commission, and was thus not qualified to run for or hold the office of Governor. (ref B) The AD claimed that the school records and other documents Fayose submitted bore the name "Peter Ayodele Oluwayose", a resident of Ibadan in Ogun State. Fayose put his father on the stand to testify that God had told him (the father) to change the family name to Oluwayose or die. After several postponements, the last one ordered when fighting broke out in the courtroom between supporters of the two parties, the Tribunal threw out the AD case saying that AD did not offer sufficient proof that Fayose was not also Oluwayose and, thus the true owner of the credentials. ¶3. (U) Two weeks later, the Tribunal issued a decision in the AD's case against PDP Delta State Governor James Ibori. The AD claimed that Ibori was ineligible because he had been convicted in 1995 of theft by fraud of over ten million naira. Based on the testimony of a defense witness who claimed that he was the one who had been charged and convicted, and not Ibori, the Tribunal decided that someone named James Onanefe Ibori had been convicted, but it was not proven that this person and Governor James Ibori were one and the same. The day after the decision, the witness clarified his testimony saying that he was not convicted instead of Ibori -- they were both convicted of the crime of theft by fraud on the same day, but in separate trials. The AD has vowed to appeal the Fayose case and the Ibori case is set for retrial in April. OPC now stands for peace ¶4. (U) Once proscribed for its violence prone activities and labeled as terrorists by President Obasanjo, the pan-Yoruba group, Odua Peoples Congress (OPC),may have resolved to follow the path of peace. Gani Adams, leader of one of the two factions of OPC, stressed the organization's new image during his opening remarks at a March 16 OPC-organized conference in Lagos calling for no violence in the up-coming local government elections. Prominent Nigerians, including diplomats, former Ministers, and civil society leaders attended the conference. Owelle Rochas Okorocha, Presidential Advisor on Inter-party Affairs, represented the Presidency, and Lagos Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu also sent a representative. ¶5. (U) Adams described the conference as the first in a program of political education that the OPC hopes will serve as a catalyst for "positive political socialization" in Nigeria. He said the one-day meeting is part of the OPC's plan to help find a new and lasting solution to Nigeria's historical difficulty with maintaining democratic governance through "free and fair elections." Adams, who is also on the Presidential Committee on Peace, used the occasion to distance his faction from the recent spate of attacks and violence he blamed on the other faction led by Dr. Frederick Faseun. ¶6. (U) Comment. The conference highlighted the fact that Adams' faction has been gaining support from the respectable side of Nigeria's political and civil society establishments. In reaction to the recent spike in attacks on prominent persons, some political leaders have even hired members of the OPC as bodyguards. Governor Tinubu and other notables attended Adams' wedding a few months ago. If the March 27 local government elections come off relatively peacefully in the southwest, it might be a sign that there is a new and responsible OPC dedicated to peace and unity in Nigeria. End comment. Pa Adesanya takes sick leave ¶7. (U) Afenifere, the pan-Yoruba socio-political group that is designated to mediate between two rival factions of the AD (ref A),announced in mid-March that its octogenarian leader, "Pa" Abraham Adesanya, was leaving his position, temporarily, to seek medical treatment abroad. Chief Reuben Fasoranti, according to Afenifere's National Publicity Secretary, Dayo Adeyeye, is to be the "Acting Leader" until Adesanya "comes back and is in a position to function as leader." Fasoranti's political credentials date from the First and Second Republics in Nigeria. He was close to famed Yoruba leader, the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo. He is from Ondo State and served as State Commissioner of Finance in the early 1980's. Fasoranti is currently the Ondo State leader of Afenifere. ¶8. (U) Comment. The AD split into two factions after losing badly in the April 2003 general elections. Afenifere, one of the organizations that helped found the AD, was asked to lend Adesanya to mediate so that the Party could present a united slate of candidates in the March 27 local government elections. Unfortunately, just as negotiations were to begin, Adesanya suffered a major, crippling stroke. Reportedly, before he stepped down, Adesanya got the two sides to pledge to submit a unified slate. The appointment of Fasoranti, who is not from Lagos and does not have a following in either Afenifere or AD, seems to be the best move the two groups can make with only a week until the elections. Fasoranti is a "place holder" to keep the groups stabilized until after the elections and/or Adesanya is able to resume his leadership. HINSON-JONES