SOUTHERN NIGERIA: POLITICAL TIDBITS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002592

SIPDIS

NOFORN

STATE FOR INR, AF/W, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN NIGERIA: POLITICAL TIDBITS

REF: ABUJA 1965 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d


1. (S/NF) Summary: During an early December visit, Abia
State Governor Orji Kalu told Consul General his presidential
bid is tactical. Kalu admitted he was serving as Vice
President Atiku's stalking horse to distract President
Obasanjo, with the understanding that Kalu will emerge as
Atiku's running mate. Kalu intimated that he had
participated in discussions with other People's Democratic
Party (PDP) members, including VP Atiku, about fomenting
civil unrest to remove Obasanjo from office prior to 2007.
The Consul General advised Kalu that attempting to engineer
either a coup or civil unrest would be an extreme misstep
that could do irreparable damage to Nigeria and its
democratic maturation.


2. (S) Summary continued: Prominent human rights attorneys
told the Consul General that progressive forces in southern
Nigeria are attempting to coalesce to counter the PDP. The
All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) announced that Chairman
Chekwas Okorie was being removed from his position for
anti-party activities. The APGA rift has been caused by lack
of money and interference by the PDP. Senator Musiliu
Obanikoro left the Alliance for Democracy to join the PDP.
The move is a major blow to Lagos State Governor Tinubu.
Obanikoro was a member of Tinubu's inner circle. End
summary.


KALU ADMITS HIS PRESIDENTIAL BID IS TACTICAL, WARNS OF CIVIL
UNREST
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Abia State Governor Orji Kalu confided to Consul
General that his presidential bid was basically a ruse. With
his highly publicized bid, Kalu hoped to distract Obasanjo's
ire from VP Atiku and also to undermine Obasanjo's attempts
to push River State Governor Peter Odili as a candidate.
(Although from Rivers, Odili is of Igbo extraction. Obasanjo
hopes he can placate both the South-South and Southeast if
Odili is either his hand-picked presidential or
vice-presidential candidate.) In exchange for running
interference, Kalu said he hoped to be selected as VP Atiku's
running mate. Kalu claimed that VP Atiku retained as firm
control of the party machinery as he did during the 2003 PDP
convention when Atiku was the decisive figure in swinging the
convention toward renominating Obasanjo. If we can get to
the party convention, Atiku is a certain winner, the
ebullient Kalu predicted.


4. (S/NF) Kalu and others in the People's Democratic Party
(PDP) believe Obasanjo has lost touch with political reality
and is steering Nigeria toward collapse. Kalu feared the
country might not make it to the 2007 elections. Moreover,
Obasanjo is still contemplating amending the constitution to
allow himself a third term, Kalu opined. If Obasanjo
continues his current bad performance or actually seeks a
third term, Kalu warned he and other PDP members, including
Atiku, would take extra-legal action to remove him from
office; they would go as far as to foment civil unrest, Kalu
suggested.


5. (S/NF) The Consul General plainly told Kalu that
attempting to orchestrate a coup or civil unrest was the acme
of shortsightedness. Once such forces are unleashed you can
no longer master them, the CG warned. The "solution" that
emerges could be more dire than the problem you attempted to
solve. Taking such a gamble would injure Nigeria domestically
and internationally. Moreover, history would rue such a
decision and would blame him for it. If you honestly
believed you controlled the PDP, the best tack would be to
adhere to the rule of law and the democratic electoral
process, the CG offered. If Atiku believed he had the inside
track to the presidency in 2007, the last thing he would want
is Obasanjo to fail to make it to 2007. Instead of
encouraging extra-legal activity, Atiku, and by extension,
Kalu, should be dousing such talk, explained the CG. Their
efforts should be focused on advocating essential political
and economic reform so that Nigeria can be in the best shape
possible come 2007. If you believe victory is within reach,
you should want Nigeria to be on the mend. You should
safeguard not endanger the thing for which you claim to be
fighting, the CG concluded.


6. (S/NF) Comment: It is no surprise Kalu and Atiku are
working together. However, Kalu's talk about civil unrest
shows the depth of anti-Obasanjo feeling held by some members
of the president's own party. Kalu has exaggerated more than
once in his life and his statement about extra-legal activity
could be in this genre. Nevertheless, we clearly signaled
that such escapades would win no succor from our corner and
that the electoral game was the only game in town as far as
we were concerned. End Comment.

PROGRESSIVES ARE UNITING TO COUNTER PDP IN THE SOUTH
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Prominent human rights attorney Femi Falana, an
unsuccessful 2003 Ekiti State gubernatorial candidate, told
the Consul General that he and others from the pre-1999 human
rights/democracy movement are working to broker a closer
relationship among progressive forces in southern Nigeria.
Focusing on the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the Southwest,
the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) in the Southeast
(the two regionally based parties),and a handful of even
smaller parties, they are working to counter what they view
as the PDP's attempt to monopolize the country. Lagos State
Governor Tinubu is purportedly involved in the effort.

APGA TURMOIL
--------------


8. (C) Because of its own internal turmoil, APGA may not be
able to contribute much to this inter-party dialogue. The
week of December 13, members of the National Executive
Committee of APGA announced Chairman Chekwas Okorie was being
removed from his position for anti-party activities.
Friction between Okorie and APGA's Anambra gubernatorial
candidate Peter Obi seems to be a factor in the removal.
(Note: Peter Obi was the putative winner of the 2003 Anambra
gubernatorial election.)


9. (C) Okorie has been accused of taking money from the
Atiku-Ngige axis in the PDP in exchange for withholding APGA
support for Obi court case challenging the election results.
(Chris Ngige is the current governor of Anambra.) Meanwhile,
Obi and Ngige nemesis Chris Uba have apparently had some
negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement that would put
Obi in power in Anambra and allow Uba to maintain some
influence in the state. As both the APGA and the PDP
experience internal dissension, competing factions in each
party are working with different factions from the other
party to destroy their internal enemies. Thus, the murky
world of politics in Anambra gets even more sullied.

SENATOR OBANIKORO MOVES FROM AD TO PDP
--------------


10. (C) Senator Musiliu Obanikoro left the AD to join the
PDP. The move is a major blow to Lagos State Governor
Tinubu, the only AD governor in the country. Obanikoro
reportedly was a member of Tinubu's inner circle, and one of
the people being considered to succeed Tinubu. Obanikoro can
expose many of Tinubu's political secrets and strategies,
including plans to maintain AD power in Lagos and to control
Afenifere. Obanikoro may have valuable information on
Tinubu's close relationship with Vice President Atiku and
their plans to prepare for a possible Atiku-Tinubu ticket in
the 2007 presidential elections. Obanikoro's move is further
indication of the PDP's resolve to wrest Lagos from Tinubu
and the AD in 2007.


11. (U) This cable was cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BROWNE