PRESIDENT OBASANJO ADMITS KNOWING ANAMBRA GOVERNOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002513

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, DRL, INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2009
TAGS: KDEM NI PGOV
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT OBASANJO ADMITS KNOWING ANAMBRA GOVERNOR
STOLE THE ELECTIONS; PDP SPIRALS INTO CRISIS

REF: LAGOS 2418 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d


1. (SBU) Summary: Major Nigerian newspapers published an
extraordinary exchange of letters between President Obasanjo
and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) national chairman Audu
Ogbeh. In his letter, Ogbeh claimed Nigeria was in a parlous
state, specifically citing Obasanjo's inaction in resolving
the political crisis in Anambra. In his rather
unpresidential and brusque reply, Obasanjo admits to having
learned that Ngige was the benefactor of a rigged election,
yet turned a blind eye to this transgression. Publication of
the letters has sent the ruling PDP into a paroxysm of
recrimination, with members of competing factions calling for
the resignations of their internecine rivals. Opposition
parties are clamoring for Ngige's resignation or new
elections. Ngige has denied admitting he lost the election.
End Summary.

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Startling Letters on Anambra Crisis
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2. (U) The December 13 "This Day" newspaper carried an
exchange of letters on the Anambra crisis between President
Obasanjo and PDP national chairman Ogbeh. Ogbeh's letter,
dated December 6, urged the president to resolve the crisis
within the state and to arrest the arsonists who destroyed
numerous government buildings November 10-11 (reftels).
Obasanjo responded with a 14-page screed, defending his
actions in Anambra and counter-accusing Ogbeh of failing in
his duties as chairman to address the root of the crisis --
what Obasanjo termed the "intraparty" dispute between
Governor Ngige and his nemesis Chris Uba (reftels).


3. (C) Obasanjo continued in his letter that during a 2003
meeting, Uba told Ngige, "You know you did not win the
election, and Ngige answered "Yes, I know I did not win."
The president writes he was "horrified" at hearing this and
immediately asked both men to leave his residence. However,
since Ngige had been constitutionally declared the winner,
Obasanjo said he decided to live with the "moral dilemma" by
only having pro forma interaction with Ngige until the
governor's term expired; Ngige did the "honorable thing" and
resigned; and/or Ngige was thrown out of office legally.
(Note: The All People's Progressive Alliance, APGA, is
contesting Ngige's election in court. APGA's Peter Obi is
widely believed to have won Anambra. End Note.) Obasanjo
claims the substance of this revelation about the fraudulent
election was reported to Ogbeh who also failed to redress the
issue. (Comment: While trying to put the onus on Ogbeh as
party chairman, Obasanjo is hoisted by his own petard. What
action could Ogbeh take to remove Ngige when Obasanjo, the
nation's chief magistrate, remained passive, notwithstanding
the criminal admissions he had heard? End Comment.)

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Letter Fall-Out -- Calls for Resignations
--------------


4. (U) Prominent, pro-Obasanjo members of the PDP, are
calling on Ogbeh to resign. However, PDP governors (who are
mostly aligned with VP Atiku) are siding largely with Ogbeh.
(Note: Increasingly, Ogbeh has been drifting toward Atiku's
camp and away from Obasanjo. End Note.) The PDP national
secretariat is meeting but has yet to issue an official

SIPDIS
statement. All major opposition parties--the Alliance for
Democracy (AD),APGA, and the All Nigerian Peoples Party
(ANPP)--are bleating for Ngige's resignation. AD Director of
Publicity, Dayo Adeyeye went further than most other parties,
saying that Obasanjo's revelation proves the PDP rigged
elections across the country. (Note: The Yoruba-dominated AD
lost control of most of the southwest to the PDP in 2003.
End Note.)

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Ngige Denies Admitting He Stole the Election
--------------


5. (C) Ngige has publicly denied the president's allegation.
Ngige's press officer Chukks Akunna told Polchief that the
governor "never said such a thing to the president." Akunna
added that in his view the President's distaste for Ngige is
"personal" and that Obasanjo seemed determine to see him
ousted from office. Yet in a conversation with the Consul
General, the mercurial Ngige was much more coy, stating he
would not allow himself to be drawn into this verbal fracas.
He preferred to remain silent, letting "people believe what
they wanted to believe." In a meeting last month with
Polchief, Ngige all but admitted not having won the election.
He said Uba "helped" him considerably. (reftels). Akunna
warned that the President may be in for more than he
bargained since the 2003 presidential and gubernatorial
elections were held in Anambra on the same day, on the same
ballot. If those ballots are false, then so too are the
returns giving Obasanjo the victory in Anambra, Akunna
asserted.

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Comment
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6. (C) Ogbeh's letter to Obasanjo was critical but
professional. In some passages, it was even statesmanlike,
within a Nigerian political lexicon that tends towards
hyperbolic rhetoric. Even in this milieu, Obasanjo's
response is jarring. The president's revelation that he
heard Ngige admit to stealing the election, yet did nothing
about it suggests he has lost his political compass. In his
desire to shift blame to Ogbeh, Obasanjo seems not to have
considered that the public would hold him personally
accountable for this gross failure to uphold the standards of
democracy. Conversely, Obasanjo may have taken a calculated
risk. By exposing his passivity, he also revealed Ngige's
active criminality. Obasanjo might have figured he could
weather the resultant storm, but Ngige might not. Moreover,
should the nettlesome PDP chairman be swept in the tide, or
at least made more reticent, so much the better. Thus far,
the public mostly appears to view Ogbeh as a "patriot", who
sought to give the President sage, if difficult, counsel.
However, Ogbeh's fate is in the hands of the party, not the
public, and his future is unclear.


7. (C) Comment Cont'd. Ngige is squarely on the hot seat
right now and is squirming to find solace and support.
Neither will come in abundance. However, Ngige is resilient
and will try to stay in place as long as possible. How the
electoral tribunal hearing the Anambra case handles this
latest information will be telling. This could well
determine Ngige's destiny. End Comment.


8. (U) This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja.
BROWNE