NIGERIA: ANAMBRA CONTINUES TO ROIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002353 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2009 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ANAMBRA CONTINUES TO ROIL REF: A. LAGOS 2279 ¶B. LAGOS 2288 ¶C. LAGOS 2290 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d ¶1. (C) Summary: As a cavalcade of Nigerian dignitaries gathered in Anambra for the funeral of Chief Asika -- the former administrator following the Biafran war -- the crisis in the state continued to roil. Anambra Governor Ngige made cameo appearances in the state during the past several days before returning to Abuja Sunday night to continue discussions with nemesis Chris Uba this week (refs a and b). Ngige told Polchief that although he should not have to negotiate with an "illiterate thug" he was prepared to compromise for the sake of peace; some issues, however, were deal-breakers. ¶2. (C) Summary Cont'd: Ngige implored the USG to convince President Obasanjo to stop backing Uba, or at the very least, to fully restore his security detail. Although support for Ngige is not very strong because most Anambrans realize he came to office on the wings of a fraudulent election, they are even more repulsed by Uba's "gangsterism." A neighboring Southeast Deputy Governor told Polchief that only Obasanjo could end to the crisis. The question is will he? End Summary. -------------- -------------- Ngige: Yes to Compromise, but My Wife is Non-Negotiable -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Polchief traveled to Onitsha, Anambra to attend to funeral of Chief Asika, former administrator of the region following the Biafran war. Luminaries from throughout the country were present including former head of state Gowon. Anambra State Governor Ngige was conspicuously absent for most of the ceremony, arriving from Abuja only after most dignitaries had departed. Polchief later met with Ngige in his capital Awka On the way, we stopped to see one of the state-owned buildings that had been burned the previous week by the armed bands purportedly suborned by Chris Uba (ref a). ¶4. (C) Asked how the Abuja talks with Chris Uba were progressing, Ngige alternated between outrage and pragmatism. Ngige said that he should not have to face Uba at all. Uba is a private person and an illiterate thug to boot. President Obasanjo is on record saying he wants to end corrupt practices in Nigeria; he should start with Chris Uba, Ngige argued. ¶5. (C) However, Ngige said he would "sacrifice" for the sake of peace. Ngige admitted that Uba "helped" him win the elections but said the assistance rendered did not tally with Uba's outrageous compensation claims. Specifically, Ngige said he was prepared to concede to Uba's faction the state PDP chairmanship and six commissioner slots. He was also prepared to negotiate with Uba the party list for the scheduled December 18 local level elections -- though with the burning of the State Independent Electoral Commission, Ngige now thought this date no longer realistic. Finally, Ngige intimated he would be willing to make a "reasonable" monthly payment to Uba. ¶6. (C) Ngige said that there were some issues, most notably the position of deputy governor, which were non-negotiable. Ngige said, "Uba is greedy. I am prepared to compromise but if someone asks you to negotiate over your wife, then you get up from the table." (Note: The Uba/Ngige talks being held under the aegis of the Presidential Peace Committee established last week were scheduled to resume the evening of Sunday, November 21. However, they were postponed by Committee Chair, Ebonyi Governor Egwu to the evening of Monday, November 22. End Note.) ¶7. (C) Ngige implored the USG to "talk to" Obasanjo. Local allies could not help, he insisted. Ideally, the president would jettison Uba, but Ngige acknowledged this was unlikely. Asked to speculate why the President had failed to restrain Uba given the national embarrassment Anambra has become, Ngige said Andy Uba, the President's special adviser and elder brother to Chris, wanted to be Anambra governor. If Anambra became ungovernable and the president had to declare a state of emergency, this would open the door for Andy, Ngige proffered. ¶8. (C) Ngige asked that we pressure Obasanjo to fully restore his security detail and that of the State House Assembly members. (Note: The Speaker of the House and numerous other high-ranking state officials remain in hiding. reftels. End Note.) Ngige claimed to have only four policemen dedicated to him. This level of support, Ngige said, was insufficient to safeguard against attack. Moreover, he argued, it sent the "wrong signal" to Uba's faction. (Comment: The national newspapers have been chocked full of allegations from Ngige's camp that Uba has a hit-list and Ngige is at the top of it. These stories, which Ngige also relayed to polchief, contain a fair amount of hyperbole. For example, Uba and by extension the president are accused of creating Sudan-style "janjaweed" in Anambra. While the language is clearly sensationalist, the alleged threats against Ngige cannot be dismissed given the history between the two men. End Comment). -------------- Ordinary Anambrans Don't Exactly Rally to Ngige, But Support Him Over Uba -------------- ¶9. (C) As armed bands were marauding through Anambra burning state buildings, including the governor's residence, most Anambrans kept their heads low. Ngige claimed this was because he issued instructions that people not retaliate so as not to give Obasanjo pretext for declaring a state of emergency. However, our contacts said the lack of a public protest was the offspring of common sense. Most people did not want to get caught in the mayhem. In addition, there was a sense that this was not their fight. Ohaneze Ndigbo, the largest pan-Igbo political/social group, has issued a statement condemning the arsons, but stopping short of fully endorsing Ngige. A traditional chief told polchief that an Igbo council of elders plans to meet soon and it too will issue a statement, along the same lines. The chief said that while some Anambrans continue to have issues with the fraudulent way in which Ngige came to power, this was not the way to remove him. ¶10. (C) Many contacts said they hoped the on-going All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) court case would decide the governorship definitively in favor of APGA candidate Peter Obi. In the meantime, however, Ngige was the recognized governor and he should not be removed by Uba's "gangsterism." Some contacts noted that they had been impressed with Ngige's governance, saying it was as if Ngige were out to prove a point. (Comment: APGA is widely believed to have won the 2003 elections (ref c). Ngige and other state officials appeared unconcerned by Obi's court case, however. The State Secretary General told polchief that the case would drag on SIPDIS until at least 2007, since Ngige's lawyers intended to call over 400 witnesses. End Comment.) -------------- -------------- Enugu Deputy Governor: Only Obasanjo Can End Crisis -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) Enugu State Deputy Governor Chief Itanyi told polchief that most of the southeast governors supported Ngige but were vocally reticent for fear of angering Obasanjo. Personally, Itanyi felt that the southeast governors should stand firm against Uba, since his shenanigans in Anambra could potentially disrupt the entire subregion if commerce is disrupted and Anambrans are forced to seek refuge from the violence in neighboring states. However, influential political leaders have been watching the Anambra crisis unfold from the sidelines, Itanyi said. Despite seeing Ngige as the lesser of two evils in his battle with Uba, most feel this is one dispute from which they should steer clear. Itanyi dismissed Ebonyi Governor Egwu's prospects of brokering a lasting peace between Ngige and Uba. A deal mediated by Egwu would be ephemeral, Egwu suggested. Egwu said only President Obasanjo could end the crisis -- the question is does he want to? -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) The irony of having stolen the elections and then insisting that the USG help maintain that post in the name of "democracy" appears to be lost on Ngige. That said, Uba's violent, strong-arm tactics may be even more unconscionable. Obasanjo could do himself, Anambra, and Nigeria a big favor if he were to ensure that the court case examining the 2003 elections in Anambra is fair and transparent. This could be the best vindication of democracy in troubled Anambra. Short of this, most Anambrans hope that ultimately Obasanjo will intervene to rein in Uba and restore a semblance of order in Anambra. However, from our vantage point in Lagos, it does not appear that Obasanjo will step into the morass unless his own fortunes become jeopardized or he is prodded to take action. BROWNE