DELTA UPDATE FOR OCTOBER 4

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002028

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR EB/ESC/IEC/ENR/BLEVINE
STATE FOR DS/IP/AF
STAT FOR INR/AA
STATE PASS DOE FOR DAS JBRODMAN AND CGAY
STATE PASS TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS AND SRENENDER
STATE PASS DOC PHUPER
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2009
TAGS: EPET CASC PGOV MOPS NI
SUBJECT: DELTA UPDATE FOR OCTOBER 4


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reasons 1.5 (B & D)

Summary
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1. (C) There have been no reports of fighting between
the GON military and any of the informal militias in the Port
Harcourt area. Press reported celebrations continued
Saturday and Sunday in the streets of Port Harcourt due to
the announcement of a tentative agreement between the federal
government and the two rival rebel groups, the Niger Delta
People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF) and the Niger Delta
Vigilante Group (NDVG). There are plans for the GON to meet
with the rebel groups again on 8 October for further
discussions. AGIP drew down personnel last week in what
appeared to be a limited response to localized threats.

Security Update
--------------


2. (C) The Port Harcourt area remained peaceful over the
weekend and into today. Asari, and to a lesser extent Tom,
received heros' welcomes upon returning to Port Harcourt from
Abuja. There were unconfirmed press reports that the GON has
moved its military forces away from Asari's hometown of
Buguma. Apparently, the military might have moved forces to
Buguma while Asari was in Abuja for talks. This move was
seen by Asari as a sign of bad faith by the GON.


3. (C) While Port Harcourt celebrated, there remained many
unanswered questions regarding the communique issued in
Abuja. Asari publicly stated that the pact with the
government is contingent on the GON meeting its demands for a
national conference, and for a degree of political autonomy
and resource control. Government spokespersons have also
been coy on divulging the details of any agreements reached
between the GON and the militias.

Energy Sector Report
--------------


4. (SBU) According to a contact in Port Harcourt, average
persons there welcomed the respite from the violence, and
were reacting based only on their hopes. A Shell official
stated the company was still cautious, but the situation was
looking better. Shell is reviewing the security situation
daily; Shell personnel still need armed escorts to move about
Port Harcourt.


5. (C) We have credible reports that on September 30, AGIP
removed some of its personnel and visiting Conoco Philips
(CP) personnel (including about seven AMCITs) from two AGIP
facilities around the Port Harcourt area in separate
incidents. The move was due to sporadic shooting in the area
of one facility, (SAIPEM) and a direct threat received by
AGIP to the other facility. The SAIPEM fabrication facility
is 5-8 kilometers south of Port Harcourt. Production was not
affected by these withdrawals.

Press Report: Governor Announces Amnesty Plan
-------------- --


6. (C) Seeing his national political ambitions being
tarnished, and perhaps feeling a bit irrelevant to the Abuja
process, embattled River state Governor Odili made a weekend
broadcast expressing happiness for the cease-fire, and
promising to raise a special committee to assist in the
rehabilitation and reintegration of aggrieved people. Odili
reminded listeners that violence would only chase much-needed
investment away from their region. The Governor reportedly
granted amnesty to the militias if they turn in their
weapons.

ACS Report
--------------


7. (C) Seven AMCITs were evacuated safely from AGIP
facilities (para five). There were no other reports of
incidents involving AMCITs.
Comment
--------------


8. (C) We are getting two distinct interpretations
regarding the talks between the GON and the rebel groups.
Some people are interpreting the communique as a sign of a
final settlement between the parties. However, an NGO
official who claims to have participated in the negotiations
says the agreement is much more tentative and conditional.
Asari's statements that the pact will be broken if the GON
fails to recognize demands for a sovereign national
conference and increased resource control lends credence to
this less optimistic interpretation.


9. (C) What we can say for sure is that violence has
diminished, and the GON and militants have talked. Although
the communiqu was signed, we do not believe a binding, full
agreement has been reached. The issues were too many and too
important for an agreement to have been struck unless Asari
has actually, albeit not publicly, capitulated on his
demands. Nonetheless, the mood is positive, which will help
to reduce tension and violence in the short term.


10. (C) Rivers state Governor Odili's announcement of an
amnesty was another wild card. Thorny details of
implementation were not thought out because Odili probably
made the statement more for political posturing than to
advance peace. Whether the program would extend to those
guilty of killing civilians, police, or GON military must be
addressed, as should the fundamental question of whether a
state governor has this authority. As these details are
fleshed out, the proposed amnesty program could boomerang on
Odili. As with his relationship with Asari, it will not be
the first time that Odili has suffered a strong backfire from
his political machinations.
BROWNE