(U) ELECTORAL REFORM: THE DEBATE CONTINUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 001705

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/REA, INR/NESA
TEL AVIV FOR RLEBARON
RIYADH FOR TUELLER
TUNIS FOR NATALIE BROWN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU
SUBJECT: (U) ELECTORAL REFORM: THE DEBATE CONTINUES


Classified By: CDA FRANK URBANCIC; REASON 1.4 (B, D).


1. (C) Summary: Reducing the number of electoral
constituencies is one of the leading political issues in
Kuwait. The concept is that larger constituencies will make
vote-buying harder and dilute the influence of tribes. PM
Shaykh Sabah Al-Ahmad has announced that the GOK will settle
this matter before the summer parliamentary recess (i.e. by
early July),but many scenarios are circulating, making it
difficult to achieve consensus around a specific plan in so
short a time. The specifics matter: depending on the voting
mechanism adopted, the result could be more or less
democratic than the current electoral process. End Summary.

(U) Parochialism
--------------

2. (SBU) Although all Members of Parliament (MPs) are
supposed to represent the entire country in the National
Assembly, in reality they are often narrowly focused on the
issues of their districts and their own ideological agendas.
Their parochialism is not surprising, given that it is
possible to be elected with fewer than one thousand votes.


3. (U) The Constitution sets the number of elected MPs at 50,
but does not specify the number of constituencies. Until
1980, Kuwait was divided into ten districts, each electing
five members. Many commentators believe that the increase
to 25 districts in 1980 only served to promote narrow
tribalism, as the smaller districts allowed candidates to win
election with fewer votes from a higher concentration of
relatives and fellow-tribesmen.

(U) Redrawing The Map
--------------

4. (SBU) The redrawing of the electoral map is at the top of
the agenda in the National Assembly. 31 MPs have reportedly
agreed on the principle of reducing (and thereby enlarging)
the number of electoral constituencies. (NOTE: The top two
vote-getters in each constituency are elected to office, for
a total of 50 elected MPs. In addition, Cabinet Ministers
are ex-officio MPs. The total number of MPs is currently 65,
so 33 is an absolute majority in the National Assembly. END
NOTE.) The concept of the proposed change is to make
electoral corruption more difficult and dilute tribal
influence, by increasing the size of constituencies. The GOK
was widely perceived as throwing money around to influence
the July 2003 elections. Many current MPs were voted into
office with barely 1,000 votes, and well over half were
elected with fewer than 2,000; the voting system is
single-round, first-two-past-the-post. Constituencies
average 3,000-6,000 eligible voters (Kuwait has a total of
approximately 137,000 eligible voters: male citizens over 21
who have been citizens for over 20 years; members of the
armed forces and security forces are not allowed to vote).
Various proposals are circulating; most would see the number
of constituencies reduced to ten or five. The devil is in
the details: according to some proposals, each voter would
cast ballots for two candidates in a district where the top
five candidates would be elected; the result would be no/no
significant increase in votes needed for election (see para.
10),but it is not clear that MPs grasp this point.


5. (SBU) The National Assembly, MPs tell us, may hold a
special session on electoral reform on June 5. Prime
Minister Shaykh Sabah assured the National Assembly that the
GOK was very serious about addressing this issue before the
Assembly recesses for the summer, probably early in July. A
May 24 local English-language daily, however, cited a
Government source as expecting the issue of political
redistricting to be carried over into the 2004-05 session of
Parliament.

(U) Reduction Advocates and Opponents
--------------

6. (C) A majority of MPs--14 Islamists, 6 members of the
Popular Action Bloc, 5 Independent Liberals, and aproximately
6 pro-Government and Government-leaning members--support a
reduction in the number of constituencies. There is no
consensus among them on the exact makeup of a new system, but
most appear willing to support a reduction to 10 districts.


7. (SBU) Most of the MPs opposing a reduction are from the
pro-Government bloc or are pro-Government-leaning
Independents, but they also include 4 Islamists. After
numerous meetings with over half of the MPs, we estimate 18
MPs oppose a reduction; a few actually want to increase the
number to 30 districts, but that notion is unlikely to gain
traction. Arguments in support of the status quo include:

- constituencies should be kept small to allow an MP to "make
a difference" in his district;

- political campaigns, which now are funded completely by the
candidates, would become too expensive if there were
fewer/larger districts, forcing candidates to find funding
from unpalatable groups, illegal sources, or even foreign
countries;

- fewer/larger districts would lead to an outcry for
legalizing political parties. Some fear that might lead to a
"Lebanonization" of Kuwaiti politics, in which intelligence
agencies, the police, and violence would have great influence
on elections, and tribes would resort to criminal tactics to
retain parliamentary seats.

(U) The GOK Position
--------------

8. (C) The GOK was reluctant to weigh in seriously on the
issue until a few months ago. It has now offered two
proposals, both recommending 10 districts. These and 11
other proposals are now before the National Assembly's
five-member Interior and Defense Affairs Committee. The
Committee, chaired by MP Mohammed Al-Fajji, will present its
recommendations on or before June 2. Al-Fajji told PolOff
that the GOK proposals have some supporters in Parliament,
but that most MPs favor various other plans. (NOTE: No
matter what recommendation emerges from the Committee, the
National Assembly could choose, by majority vote, to review
any proposal--and if it had that many votes, it could pass
the proposal. END NOTE.)


9. (C) Al-Fajji assured PolOff the plan that goes to the full
National Assembly for a vote will call for 10 electoral
constituencies. There are many different ten-constituency
proposals on the table, differing in the geographic
distribution of districts, the number of seats in each
district (they would have to average five per district, but
some districts could be larger than others),and how many
votes each voter would be permitted to cast: some proposals
would give each voter only two votes. (NOTE: now, each voter
can cast two votes, and the top two finishers in the district
are elected; it is permissible to cast only one vote*-a
practice referred to as &one-eyed8 voting; it is not/not
permitted to cast both votes for one candidate. END NOTE.)

(SBU) One Seat, One Vote -- Or It Doesn't Compute
-------------- --------------

10. (C) There is a crucial relationship between the number of
votes each voter is allowed to cast and the number of seats
in the district. Now, each voter has a say in 100% of his
district's parliamentary representation (two votes, two
seats). Under a two votes/five seats scenario, each voter
would have a say in only 40% of his district's parliamentary
representation. The result, as can be shown by simple
arithmetic, would be that no/no increase in votes would be
needed for election (the top finisher would doubtless win
more votes than now, but the candidates finishing third
through fifth would be elected, whereas in the current system
they are losers).


11. (C) A five votes/five seats scenario (i.e. "one seat, one
vote") would accomplish the stated purpose of reform, i.e.
raise significantly the number of votes required for
election. This would truly diminish the effects of tribal
politics and make electoral corruption more costly. By
making it more difficult for tribal connections to determine
the outcome of elections, such a system could heighten the
importance of substantive political agendas instead of tribal
affiliation; this could indeed foster demands for the
legalization of political parties--which most political
spheres other than the GOK already support.


12. (C) COMMENT: Unless/until MPs achieve consensus in
support of one specific scenario, the GOK will face little
pressure to come to closure on electoral reform.
URBANCIC