DEC. 30 DRC UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 002352

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO CG
SUBJECT: DEC. 30 DRC UPDATE


Classified By: Poloff Meghan Moore for Reasons 1.4 B and D


1. (SBU) Summary: Although the area north of Kanyabayonga
has quieted and humanitarian relief efforts are underway,
troubling fighting and troop movements continue in parts of
North Kivu that used to be under RCD/G control. End Summary.

Tension High in Goma
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2. (C) On December 30, an international human rights worker
told poloff that over the past month, ethnic tension in Goma
has become increasingly noticeable. She opined that an
increase in ethnic tension combined with ongoing arming of
Rwandophone civilians in Masisi, continuous reports of
small-scale fighting between ex-ANC elements and the FARDC,
and the fact that Governor Serufuli increasingly behaves like
a "local dictator instead of a state employee" are troubling.
A MONUC poloff said that the situation "wasn't looking good"
and said it appears that both sides may be preparing for a
more serious confrontation. During the week of December 27,
Congolese sources in North Kivu told political assistants
they were concerned that serious fighting in North Kivu would
resume.

North-South Kivu Border
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3. (C) On December 30, a MONUC officer reported that Kivu
Brigade Commander General Isberg met with North Kivu military
regional commander BG Amisi on December 29. Amisi reportedly
told Isberg that he was concerned with the situation near
Minova (northern South Kivu),said President Kabila had told
him to deploy a "neutral" company to Kalehe (southern North
Kivu),and claimed that Governor Serufuli was directing the
situation and was trying to encourage discord between the
North and South Kivu military regions. On December 30, an
international NGO worker in Goma told poloff that in the past
few weeks up to 20,000 civilians had been displaced from
Bweramana (on the border of North and South Kivu, between
Kalehe and Minova) towards Minova. Generals Isberg, Mabe and
Amisi were scheduled to meet in Minova on December 30.

Walikale Territory
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4. (C) On December 29, BG Amisi reportedly told Isberg that
he had heard that four ex-ANC (RCD/G military wing)battalions
planned to advance towards Walikale along three axes, with
the first advance along the Ntoto axis already under way.
Amisi reportedly said he had heard that the 91st (Mai Mai)
and 36th (unknown) Brigades intended to advance on Masisi,
and added that General Buki (Army Chief of Staff) had told
him that if the ex-ANC advanced on Walikale, it would be
attacked by aerial bombing. (Note: Unsure if FARDC has
capacity to conduct aerial bombing operations. End note.)


5. (SBU) On December 29, MONUC confirmed that Mai Mai and
ex-ANC from the 11th Brigade killed civilians and committed
other human rights violations when ex-ANC soldiers withdrew
from areas near Walikale town during mid-December. Mai Mai
from the 91st Brigade have controlled Walikale town since
December 18. Mai Mai soldiers executed three civilians (one
Rwandan, one Kinyarwanda-speaking Congolese, and one Mushi),
and arrested and executed six ex-ANC soldiers in Walikale
territory. Ex-ANC soldiers from the 11th Brigade also killed
four civilians and one soldier in the area of Kilambo, and
kidnapped dozens of civilians from Mubi, Walikale town,
Murakato and Tutero who were forced to carry looted goods
towards Masisi territory.

Nyabiondo--Masisi Territory
--------------


6. (C) On December 30, MONUC poloff reported that there were
ongoing clashes between FARDC (mostly believed to be Mai Mai)
and ex-ANC troops in the area of Kibua (between Nyabiondo and
Masisi). On December 29, Radio Okapi reported that Nyabiondo
was under the control of soldiers from the ex-ANC's 12th
Brigade after fighting between the ex-ANC and Mai Mai from
December 18-20. Up to 100 civilians were killed, a large
number of civilians were displaced, and a church was
reportedly attacked during a service. Reportedly, Mai Mai
have been pushed about 15km north of Nyabiondo towards
Lushebero. During the week of December 27, a MONUC team
visited Masisi and found the area between Goma and Masisi
mostly calm. The team, however, saw the local administrator
in Masisi distribute arms to Rwandophone civilians, and
received reports that civilians had been killed. MONUC has
also received reports that ex-ANC troops from the 12th
Brigade are traveling from Kanyabayonga towards Kibua.

Buramba--Rutshuru Territory
--------------

7. (C) On December 30, an international NGO worker told
poloff that at least 16 civilians were killed in mid-December
by ex-ANC soldiers in Buramba (100 km northeast of Goma). The
ex-ANC soldiers reportedly attacked the village in
retaliation for the death of two ex-ANC soldiers. They forced
all civilians to leave the village, and would not let anyone
return for about 10 days, during which time they
systematically looted homes. Two civilians who attempted to
return were reportedly shot and killed.

Humanitarian Corridor Opens
--------------


8. (SBU) On December 30, OFDA officer told poloff that a
humanitarian convoy reached Kayna (15km north of
Kanyabayonga) on December 29, and the Lubero-Goma road was
open to humanitarian trucks but not to commercial truck
traffic.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Although the area north of Kanyabayonga has quieted
and humanitarian relief efforts are underway, fighting and
troop movements continue in parts of North Kivu that used to
be under RCD/G control--notably Rutshuru and Masisi.
Although the Kanyabayonga cease-fire is a positive
development, the real possibility of an ex-ANC/FARDC showdown
is not over. At this point, any number of scenarios are
possible, including the possibility that the ex-ANC is
interested in re-asserting military control over part of its
previous zone of influence in North Kivu-- notably the area
from Goma north to Kanyabayonga, south to Kalehe, west to
Walikale, and Masisi and Rutshuru territories. These
contiguous areas have high concentrations of Rwandophones and
local administrators loyal to the ex-ANC. It appears that
ex-ANC and RCD/G hardliners have decided to focus on
controlling this territory.


10. (U) Bujumbura minimize considered.
MEECE