CONGOLESE MILITARY PREPARING CONTINGENCY PLANS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 002166 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO CG SUBJECT: CONGOLESE MILITARY PREPARING CONTINGENCY PLANS TO COUNTER RWANDAN INVASION Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) PolCouns met November 24, and spoke telephonically November 25, with Air Force Commander John Numbi. Numbi said November 24 that in a meeting at the Presidency it had been decided that the army would immediately redeploy three battalions of Congolese troops (about 1,500 men) to the DRC-Rwandan border area between South and North Kivu to respond, if necessary, to a Rwandan incursion. He said that, although the Congolese are "tired of war, we will defend ourselves if necessary." ¶2. (C) By the following afternoon Congolese military thinking evidently had evolved. Numbi called PolCouns en route to a meeting of the Maison Militaire (effectively the commanding body of the military),to say that the Congolese believe that, thanks to the concerted diplomatic efforts underway, Rwanda is unlikely to invade Congo "in the next few days." However, he added that once the eyes of the world turn away from the border zone -- as they soon will, he insisted -- Rwanda likely will pursue its goal. Therefore the Maison Militaire has been tasked to prepare a contingency plan to defend both Kivus, since it is "clear" to the Congolese military that the Rwandan objectives lie within both provinces. He said that, as part of that plan, the personnel of the three battalions will be swapped out, so that better trained and (by implication) more trustworthy troops will be moved into the front-line positions. (Note: As part of the now months-old massive military deployment to the eastern Congo, Kinshasa dispatched GSSP to positions in both Kindu and Kisangani -- Numbi could be referring to a plan to move some or all of these elements to the border. End Note.) Numbi insisted the Congo has no intention of attacking Rwanda, despite, he said, some statements indicating the high degree of anger and frustration sparked by this latest round of Rwandan aggression. ¶3. (C) Comment: Numbi did not, despite repeated questions from PolCouns, indicate that either Congolese politicians or military are currently considering any new plan to actively address the FDLR problem. Monuc's evaluation, based on its abortive joint effort with FARDC in Wulungu (septel),is that the Congolese military is completely incapable of dealing with the FDLR, largely due to its inability to logistically sustain operations. This is no surprise, but leaves the onus on the international community, therefore, to try to devise a viable plan for dealing with the FDLR. Doing so clearly is one fundamental element to achieving a lasting peace between Rwanda and the DRC, and therefore within the region as a whole. MEECE