KATANGA POLITICAL UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 002127 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014 TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL CG SUBJECT: KATANGA POLITICAL UPDATE Classified By: Poloff Edward Bestic for Reasons 1.5 B and D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kabila's PPRD party is the leading "national" contender in Katanga province, and benefits from local government control and preferential media access. PPRD efforts are nonetheless somewhat in disarray, and face local players such as former governor Kyungu, whose tribalist approach runs counter to the PPRD's own efforts to build a multi-ethnic base. Kabila has the advantage in Katanga over Kyungu and presidential rivals such as Jean-Pierre Bemba and Etienne Tshisekedi, but he will have to work harder in order to count the province a secure electoral win. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Poloff visited Lubumbashi and Kalemie in DRC's Katanga province from Nov. 7-13 and met with local civil and military officials, diplomats, U.N. and international NGO workers, and members of civil society. This is the second in a series of short cables on the trip. Governor, Vice-Governor Frustrated at Lack of Support? -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) The recently-appointed provincial governor, Dr. Urbain Kisula Ngoy, met briefly with a delegation led by USAID country director on November 8. He came across as relaxed and articulate, and did not employ local journalists to publicize the meeting. According to one well-informed western source who frequently meets with the governor, Kisula is frustrated because Kinshasa has given him little support or resources with which to both reunify the province (the northernmost portion was and is still controlled by RCD-G appointed authorities) and to conduct an electoral campaign on behalf of President Kabila. The same source said that one of the two vice-governors, Chikez Diemu (formerly secretary-general of President Kabila's political party, the SIPDIS PPRD),is also frustrated because the governor does not delegate well and runs the province in an amateurish way. (Comment: Although Kisula is supposedly a Mai-Mai, as a pediatrician and former president of the provincial legislature he is anything but a bush fighter. Both he and Chikez are PPRD men. Their alleged frustration with Kinshasa's unwillingness to adequately support them rings true. While most people accuse the ex-belligerent groups of using state funds to fund their respective political campaigns, we think the problem is more that those with access to such funds prefer to line their own pockets first, finance the party second. End Comment.) Local PPRD in Some Disarray -------------- ¶4. (C) Richard Muyej, head of the PPRD's party structure for Katanga, told poloff November 8 he spent most of the past two months in South Africa for medical reasons, and while he was gone, his colleagues did virtually nothing to advance the party's cause. Muyej denied the rumor that the presidency had stripped PPRD secretary-general Vital Kamerhe's authority over party finances. There is popular misperception, because there are in effect two parallel campaigns: the first, involving the PPRD's formal party structure, targets the masses; the second consists of individual presidential advisers, who are targeting local kingmakers. Muyej explained President Kabila's failure to openly declare his candidacy and party affiliation as, first, a desire to remain above the political fray, and second, his status as a military officer which prevents him from running for civilian office. In the next breath, however he admitted that Kabila "will need to declare soon, because we're running out of time." Finally, when asked about the issue of amnesty for individuals convicted in the much-criticized Laurent Kabila assassination trial, Muyej initially said it was not relevant, then added that locals at the village level in southern Katanga had asked him about it. (Comment: Poloff has heard previously that this is indeed an important issue to the Lunda, because several of the individuals convicted during the trial are fellow tribesmen. Muyej, a Lunda himself, undoubtedly finds it awkward to defend the PPRD's position of denying amnesty to these individuals. End Comment.) MLC, UDPS, RCD-Goma Absent? -------------- ¶5. (C) Poloff heard relatively little about Jean-Pierre Bemba's MLC party ("they're marginal here," according to one western diplomat) and saw no MLC banners, t-shirts, or other advertising, despite the fact that one of the two vice-governors and the military region commander are MLC men. A MONUC source speculated that Bemba might try to forge a political alliance with Kyungu and air force commander Gen. John Numbi, both Luba Katanga tribesmen. (Comment: Bemba has probably had contact with Kyungu and Numbi--the latter perhaps more for common "business" interests--but we have heard nothing to indicate a political partnership. A Bemba-Kyungu alliance would severely damage Bemba's chances of teaming up with Etienne Tshisekedi's UDPS party, whose mainly Luba Kasai supporters were on the receiving end of Kyungu's ethnic-cleansing campaign in the early 90s. End Comment.) ¶6. (C) The only mention of opposition figure Tshisekedi during poloff's visit was by a South African diplomat, who commented that the UDPS seriously considered but decided against creating an armed wing in 2002-3. Poloff saw no UDPS or RCD-Goma signs, t-shirts or other publicity. On November 11 representatives from a smaller, UDPS-allied party complained to poloff that they lack campaign funds and fair access to public media, two areas where provincial authorities and the PPRD have a great advantage. (Comment: Compared to Kinshasa, authorities in Katanga also maintain a much tighter grip on freedom of speech, as witnessed by the recent arrest and two months' detention of pastor Albert Lukusa. Lukusa publicly described the transitional government as infantile and suggested that Kabila and two of the vice-presidents are not of 100% Congolese parentage. End Comment.) Other Local Players -------------- ¶7. (C) Muyej and other observers confirmed that former governor Gabriel Kyungu wa Kamwanza, who lobbied hard to get his old job back but "lost" to Kisula, now says he is on Kabila's side--after threatening publicly in May to campaign against him. (Note: Kyungu, a Luba Katanga, leads a strictly Katangan party called the UNAFEC. End Note.) He "has no scruples, no ideals," said Muyej, who knows from personal experience, having served as an adviser to Kyungu when the latter was governor during the early 1990s. (Note: During this period, Kyungu presided over a massive ethnic-cleansing campaign, whereby militants from his political party--mostly of the Luba Katanga tribe--essentially drove out hundreds of thousands of Kasains, or "non-native" Katangans. End Note.) According to a MONUC source in Kalemie, Kyungu visited that town recently and is attempting to recruit Congolese into the youth wing of his political party, the UNAFEC. Candidates must be under 25, able to march three days without eating, and will be called "Zulus" (for men) and "Amazons" (women). ¶8. (C) Moise Katumbi, younger brother of Raphael Soriano Katebe Katoto, is also in the PPRD camp, claimed Muyej, but the party "needs to manage him carefully." (Comment: Virtually all sides in the Congolese political arena have courted the wealthy Katebe Katoto, who never filled his senator's seat for the RCD-Goma and reportedly still fears arrest on murder charges if he sets foot in the DRC. End Comment.) According to western observers, Katumbi did not himself lobby to become governor, but instead supported Jean-Claude Muyambo, a prominent Lubumbashi-based lawyer. Muyambo, a former human-rights activist who is from one of the smaller tribes in Katanga, is president of "Solidarite Katangaise," a local NGO that preaches unity and peace among Katangans. (Comment: The pro-Kabila newspaper "L'Avenir" recently gave full-page coverage to a "Solidarite Katangaise" event in Lubumbashi, which was attended by pastor Ngoy Mulunda--an unofficial advisor to and emissary of Kabila. End Comment.) Kyungu reportedly heads a similar, though less well-funded group, "Fondation Katangaise," that advances his nativist, Katanga-for-the-real-Katangans view. Another "candidate" for the governorship was Christian Mwando Simba, whose father Charles Mwando Simba currently chairs a key National Assembly committee and was governor of Kivu province under Mobutu. One source explained that the Mwando Simbas are Tabwas, the same ethnicity as President Kabila's national security adviser, Guillaume Samba Kaputo--who also served as chief of staff to then-governor Charles Mwando Simba. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Kabila certainly has the advantage in Katanga, but he cannot count the province as a secure electoral win. Although they adored his father, the Luba Katanga are less supportive of Joseph Kabila, and the president has done little so far to build an effective machine or patronage system with which to gain the support of other Katangans. The PPRD's current attempt to appeal to all ethnic groups in Katanga does not resonate with the dominant Luba Katanga tribe as well as Kyungu's nativist message does. END COMMENT. MEECE