C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001572

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/20/2014
TAGS: MARR PGOV PHUM PREL CG MONUC
SUBJECT: SERIOUS SITUATION IN EASTERN CONGO THREATENS
REGIONAL PEACE


Classified By: PolCouns MSanderson, reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Inflammatory rhetoric from Rwanda, Burundi
and the DRC, coupled with the buildup of Burundian and
Rwandan troops on the Congolese border and discord and
disarray within one of the major parties in the Congolese
transition threaten the fragile peace of the Great Lakes.
South Africa is trying to broker talks between the RCD and
the President's group, focused on relieving internal
Congolese pressures and drawing a blueprint for saving the
transition. However, in terms of deterring an outbreak of
fighting, the Congolese are looking to the international
community, and the U.S. in particular. The situation is
salvageable, but a prompt, forceful and coordinated
diplomatic intervention -- along the lines of that which
helped defuse the Bukavu crisis -- is urgently needed. End
Summary.

Looking Over the Gunbarrel


2. (C) Monuc Bukavu reports at least three brigades of
Burundian troops poised near the border crossing at Uvira,
and has confirmed the presence of at least two battalions of
Rwandan RDF forces co-mingling with the FAB at that same
site. Monuc also has forwarded to us reports of additional
RDF forces (three brigades) on barracks alert. In response
to the buildup the Congolese military has deployed a brigade
to the Uvira area, although the regional military commander
admitted privately to Monuc that he doubted that the FADRC
forces could long oppose a determined effort to cross the
border. Monuc and NGO sources report a buildup of military
elements (Hutu local defense forces and/or RDF elements) in
and near Minova, Kalehe, Dutu and other small villages near
the lake -- all areas known as strongholds of rebel leader
Nkunda. In Goma itself, three non-Banyamulenge military
officers have been strangled to death (reportedly by Nkunda's
men) in the last day. Nkunda himself arrived in Goma August
20 in what one observer called "a triumphal entry,"
accompanied by five truckloads of soldiers.

Political Machinations



3. (C) RCD-G VP Ruberwa, who remains in Goma with a
significant number of RCD ministers and some
parliamentarians, reportedly has issued a call for all RCD
members to come to Goma immediately, to take part in an
announcement planned for this weekend. An all-night meeting
of RCD members at party headquarters in Kinshasa, apparently
to "vote" on going to Goma, came as a surprise to moderates,
who had not been informed that the meeting was to take place.
(Further details septel.) A rupture in the party seems
likely, almost certainly along ethnic lines. The key
question remains, however, whether Ruberwa himself will
resign from the government and announce (with or without
legal authority) that the RCD is no longer part of the
transition. We understand from RCD and government sources
that S. African President Mbeki has summoned RCD and
government elements for a meeting in Pretoria, to try to
defuse tensions and salvage the transition by providing a
blueprint for forward momentum. Although Ruberwa himself
remains in Goma, RCD sources say that at least two party
hard-liners have gone to S. Africa. The government appears
still to be deciding who will represent them.

Comment


4. (C) We appear to be facing a major threat to the
transition government -- still our best, albeit flawed, means
of getting to democratic elections -- as well as a resumption
ofbroader armed conflict in the region. The S. African
initiative is helpful, but a broader diplomatic effort, such
as that launched during the first Bukavu crisis, is urgently
needed to remind all three parties to the current tense
situation that they would face a high cost for allowing peace
to fail.
MEECE